Surely, it can be quite difficult for newbies to figure out some kind of a way to balance the level of their desires to be aggressive with their bitcoin investment and at the same time to make sure that they do not overdo it and end up in a pickle.. so frequently newbies get worked up about their emergency funds "not working for them," yet a more solid bitcoin investment approach (and strong cashflow management practices) would end up probably having 10-20 years or more of never ever having had touched their emergency funds...

Frequently if we are having to dip into our emergency funds, then that likely would be sign that we are doing something wrong... since it should really be rare that we would ever have to dip into our emergency funds.. .and surely it can take a lot of practice to ensure that our systems of back up funds are strong enough to endure UPs and DOWNs in the BTC price and other happenings in our life that are related to our income and/or our expenses.

The more uncertainties we have with our income and/or our expenses, the more emergency funds (and other forms of back up funds) we are going to need to deal with ongoing variance that we may well already know that we have, and surely there could be ways to buttress up our back up cashflows by increasing our income and/or cutting our expenses, yet there also is likely some balance that we need to attempt to reach and some kind of a learning that comes from several years of practice, and it could surely take us 1-2 whole bitcoin cycles in which we really are able to gain meaningful confidence that our various back-up fund systems have been put through the ringer and put through the test so that we start to gain more and more confidence in regards to even being able to increase our bitcoin investing (buying) aggressiveness based on increased confidence that we are better aware (through our own experiences) of knowing where the boundaries are at, and even I have been investing more than 30 years (more than 20 years prior to getting into bitcoin),

....and from time to time, I even find myself making mistakes, yet surely the longer that we invest and build good habits that are investing rather than trading or gambling, it likely becomes much more likely that any errors that we make are not going to end up taking us out of the game, like the errors of newbies will sometimes cause a lot of damage to their making progress if they cannot figure out ways to be as aggressive as they can, yet without over doing it, since in the beginning they likely are going to need to temper any of their BTC accumulation with making sure that they have sufficiently good systems of back up funds in place and that they are not putting their prior accomplishments in too much jeopardy based on their own desires to want to get rich as quickly as they can.. but then end up getting too greedy and not realizing that sometimes a more prudent and conservative approach will end up having better long term payouts both in terms of developing better habits but also to be able to see ongoing growth in the BTC stash, which ultimately is likely going to be the part that ends up paying off, even if some weeks the addition to the BTC stash might be relatively smaller compared with other weeks.
 

It sounds good that you are figuring out ways to improve yourself and to make sure that you are lessening the odds that you are going to make the same levels and kinds of mistakes in the future... sometimes we might fix some previous mistakes, but then  we end up making other mistakes, yet if we are continuing to progress, we  likely become better at even identifying areas that are risky that we might not have had identified without ongoing practicing.


It is great that you are actually concretely witnessing that you have improved upon your earlier less good practices, and surely one of the BIGGER tests seems to be getting through a whole bitcoin cycle, and surely based on your forum registration date, you are not quite one year registered on the forum, so it can take time to build up and also to make sure that you have actually improved upon your past mistakes.  It is so frequently that so many folks will feel like geniuses during a bull market (including that we have been in a bull market for two years), yet there can be a lot of challenges to get through a whole cycle without getting distracted into trading, gambling or the premature employment of selling tactics to try to increase your bitcoin stash size.. and so there are plenty of forum members who proclaim that they are investing into bitcoin, yet they cannot even make it through a whole cycle without selling BTC, even when they may well had not even accumulated any kind of meaningful BTC stash.. so yeah, individual circumstances vary, which seems to be part of the justification that we should not be proclaiming ourselves to be BTC "investment" geniuses prior to getting through a whole cycle and potentially having actual past practices in our history to see how we might have had dealt with the whole cycle or even a couple of cycles if we are not really in any position to front-load our BTC investment in any kind of meaningful and/or materially significant way.

We do not necessarily need to disclose specifics of our own personal finances or our OpSec kinds of matters in order to be able to analyze some of the meaningful practices (and progress) of 1- 2 whole bitcoin cycles.

For sure you are correct about traders in that if they are somewhat experienced rather than a newbie who is guessing about what to do, then they are going to have varying techniques to attempt to play both or either side of the trade, and so they may well not be too concerned about current prices as long as they believe that they have a reasonable thesis for taking a position in one direction or another, including realizing that even an overvalued asset can sometimes (or even frequently) continue to go up and to provide trading opportunities for any trader who is able to identify some kinds of meaningful and/or reliable indicators that go beyond merely assessments of over or under valued.

On the other hand, I think that you misstate the investor's sensitivity about short term BTC prices, especially if you are discounting that low coiners and no coiners may well need to spend several years accumulating bitcoin without giving too many shits about BTC prices, especially if they are entering into bitcoin with an investment thesis that is 4-10 years or longer, and surely there are some investors who may well be considering their entrance into bitcoin (and their plans to accumulate bitcoin) as something that carries out 15-30 years or longer, so even if they might change their mind down the road (which they surely have the right to do), they still might consider that they are investing into bitcoin for decently long timelines, so they plan their BTC accumulation strategy in accordance with regularly buying bitcoin and without giving any shits about short term BTC price movements, and they might even consider that anything currently under $1 million per BTC is a good deal, so they accumulate BTC no matter the price.... and they also may well not be in a position to lump sum invest into bitcoin, so their $100 per week (or even their $10 per week) is not going to make too much of a difference if the BTC price happens to be $108k, $93k, $61k or even $236k....

Once some of the newbie investors accumulate bitcoin for 4-10 years or longer, there may be some point in which they start to become more interested in monitoring the BTC price and attempts to strategize their additional purchases on dips rather than regularly, consistently, persistently and ongoingly.


If someone just came into bitcoin, even within the last couple of years, have never had opportunities to buy bitcoin lower than $16k, and it would be unrealistic for them to turn back the clock or even to guess about where the BTC price might go from here, including that it may well be quite presumptive for them to speculate that BTC prices are ever going below $90k again.. .so they have to be careful about fantasizing regarding what they did in the past or what they could have done or should have done, including that whatever they did do, is already locked in, so sure they  can take that into account in order to try to figure out what they are going to do from here in terms of ongoing BTC accumulation strategies.


Even guys that got into bitcoin under $10k, perhaps 4 years ago or more, may well feel that they are not in a position to be fucking around with trying to take profits, even if BTC were to reach $150k in the coming weeks or months.

If you might realize that investors do not tend to preoccupy themselves with taking profits, then you might see that there may well be some mental frameworks that you are trying to impose, since you seem to have such an ongoing tendency to preoccupy yourself with profits and/or trading opportunities that you might identify, yet investors might not give too many shits about those short-to-medium term profit factors that you seem to want to measure as being so relevant to your own perspective but not so relevant to a BTC accumulator/HODLer who is way more long-term oriented.

So your preaching about various profits are likely not going to be very relatable for BTC investors who have really gotten into longer term thinking and appreciating a likely beneficial outcome that focuses on either ongoing accumulation or some combination of accumulation and hold rather than including selling into their BTC portfolio management orientations.


Sure.. value versus price.. which frequently, I like to consider the 200-WMA as a way of valuating our BTC holdings, yet the mere fact that the BTC spot price and the 200-WMA bounce around relative to each other does not necessarily justify attempting trying to trade upon such variations in value versus price.

You seem to continue to want to suggest that you are smarter than everyone else since you seem to want to promote trading ideas, and surely trading is a specialty that an overwhelming majority of normies are not going to be able to employ in profitable kinds of ways. .including being able to beat a BTC accumulation strategy that spans over 4-10 years or longer and that largely focuses on ongoingly, persistently, consistently and perhaps even aggressively accumulating BTC.  Sure, there may well be some guys (traders) who have been able to beat longer term BTC accumulation strategies, such as beating BTC accumulation strategies that are 8 years or more, yet the mere fact that some guys have been able to beat such regular BTC accumulation strategy surely does not justify that guys fuck around with such a trading strategy, absent maybe some personal specific reason that they would be suitable for the employment of such trading strategies.. .seems like rare individuals, and personally, I think that it is way better to be attempting to figure out what an overwhelming majority of people should be doing (which is likely ongoingly buying BTC) rather than projecting that normies have abilities to fuck around with trading strategies or even  waiting to buy dips rather than getting started and focusing on accumulating as many BTC as they can through buying-oriented strategies over the next 4-10 years or longer without getting distracted into fucking around with selling and without ending up overdoing their own BTC accumulation strategies by failing/refusing to sufficiently/adequately manage their cashflows.

And.. by the way, on a more personal level.. Merry Christmas, Happy New Years, and otherwise happy holidays to you EarnOnVictor.