Without seeing the chart you are referring to, OP. All we can say are pure speculations and wonderings. But what I can say is that we can never expect the past bear season to be the same as the coming bear market. The same thing with the ATH.
If we see the price of Bitcoin go down $40k before, most likely it will not happen again. What we called a bull season in the past year seems to be our bearish price now.
Why? The demand is increasing for some reasons, pushing the price to move higher as well.
Are you real?
You are in BTCtalk, but you don't know the current chart of BTC?
You are in the trading section. People here should know the current price action and structure.
I don't know why others are posting here without checking the current BTCUSD chart.
Like OP said and my previous post, BTC already formed a double top.
Usually a double top on the daily time frame shows a signal for reversal. If you are not a trader, you don't know what a double top is. It usually happens even on short-term time frames; it's proven to be a signal for reversals.
Since you know that BTC can drop to $40k, it isn't impossible for it to happen again. We are not fortune tellers to know the future or what the price of BTC will be.
What we can do is analyze the chart and predict probabilities.