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Everything is by the book....
But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??
Yep everything is by the book, capitulation now, maybe even panic, now we shall perhaps see a short lived rally and then down, down to the despair level...
GotBitCoins.
Good point to consider - thank you nkspace!
It is so easy to manipulate this market - it is so small. When I am trading futures or stocks - I buy a contact that worths say 200,000$ and still I can't move the market - cause the market cap is sooo large. But here... - let me tell you a secret, after the BitCoin value sky rocketed up to 47$ maybe two months ago, there was a software problem, and I tried to pull my money out, geez I did it so slowly and still I managed to take the price under 40$... I mean -yea it was me.... look at the 'rich' early adopters, those that preferred to save those coins instead of buying a pizza with 10,000 coins - they can move the market wherever they want. They will lure as many people as possible into this sucker's rally and then dump so many bitcoins that the price will go shockingly low and then you can see the big orders coming 1000 bitcoins, 5000 bitcoins, yea just around the 50ish... so yea - there is a possibility that it is manipulated and the thing is - every round like this - these guys are multiplying the number of bit coins that they have so it's not that the richest person is going to have 0.0001% of the market cap - no - it's about individuals that have 0.1% to 1.0% and more of the cap and they can move it and they aren't going away soon. I am not sure that it's manipulated but yes - it's a good point to consider.
It is so easy to manipulate this market - it is so small. When I am trading futures or stocks - I buy a contact that worths say 200,000$ and still I can't move the market - cause the market cap is sooo large. But here... - let me tell you a secret, after the BitCoin value sky rocketed up to 47$ maybe two months ago, there was a software problem, and I tried to pull my money out, geez I did it so slowly and still I managed to take the price under 40$... I mean -yea it was me.... look at the 'rich' early adopters, those that preferred to save those coins instead of buying a pizza with 10,000 coins - they can move the market wherever they want. They will lure as many people as possible into this sucker's rally and then dump so many bitcoins that the price will go shockingly low and then you can see the big orders coming 1000 bitcoins, 5000 bitcoins, yea just around the 50ish... so yea - there is a possibility that it is manipulated and the thing is - every round like this - these guys are multiplying the number of bit coins that they have so it's not that the richest person is going to have 0.0001% of the market cap - no - it's about individuals that have 0.1% to 1.0% and more of the cap and they can move it and they aren't going away soon. I am not sure that it's manipulated but yes - it's a good point to consider.
my version is this one:
the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)
http://s15.postimg.org/4aobidzaz/bitcoinbild.jpg
I can't see your chart - it's blocked saying 'adult and pornography'...the bottom line is not a straight line it's a curve
so now i see the bottom at 22 USD
it worked really well for me at the last touch of the line ;-)
http://s15.postimg.org/4aobidzaz/bitcoinbild.jpg
I really appreciate this thread.
It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -
It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.
We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.
It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.
So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.
If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...
(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)
Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...
GotBitCoins.
It gives a mult-years perspective on what's going on -
It seems like in the case of the BitCoin it's a war between the enthusiasm of new technology and the speculative mania that can burn it.
We know that many times when a new technology is introduced - we have this wave of early adopters that are so enthusiastic about it that they take the price up exponentially. Then after it cools down, it starts rising again slowly till there's public acceptance.
It seems like in the case of BitCoin we are witnessing not only one exponent followed by public acceptance, but more like waves and waves of public acceptance, each time going into exponential Mania and then dropping again and then drawing a bigger circle of acceptance and then mania again and then drop and so on.
So it makes sense that if (IF) BitCoin makes it - then we shall witness every 2 years an Exponential Mania, followed by despair.
If so then we are right now at the Bear following the Mania - that should last many months till the price shall become undervalued again and the chartists will have to adjust their exponent...
(Specifically right now we are in an unsustained post Mania suckers rally)
Yes, one needs lots of patience, to sit on the sidelines for several months ready with cash to get a good entry price - but then it seems like almost the sky is the limit...
GotBitCoins.
apologies for my recent absence from this esteemed thread, I was temporarily banned by some heathen moderator. Fortunately sense prevailed and I'm back! The Ferro Rocher are on me!
Yea right, are you going to be "banned" again in the coming days when it sinks below 70$?
The question is can you find another chart that looks like you are sitting at C/D, but went on to rocket to new highs?
Answer: Easily, I found one on my first try:
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1243627200000&chddm=1079144&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=zK9xUaDIHIielwPCcw
Answer: Easily, I found one on my first try:
https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximized&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1243627200000&chddm=1079144&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:AAPL&ntsp=0&ei=zK9xUaDIHIielwPCcw
yes, you are showing a bull run that spans over several years and you are showing an interim top at ~200$ and then price becomes 100$. At that point in time you are not sure if the bull is going to continue - right? so you better invest when it's 100$ rather than when you hear the hurrah of 200$. Cause you don't know - at that point the bull may be over.
Seriously though right now there's a huge amount of orders around $8-$20 - about $2 Million worth I think
I've never seen it like this before.
For some reason people expect a crash of epic proportions.
I've never seen it like this before.
For some reason people expect a crash of epic proportions.
Where do you see these orders? Which web-site?
So, looks like "return to the mean" currently?
no, no - you have to feel the despair first... go to this forum posts in Oct/Nov 2011, that sort of thing! Then after you can feel and hear the despair a new bull can emerge - OR NOT! But you don't have that kind of patience now don't ya? you want fast money! you wanna be rich - yes, so why don't you buy into this sucker's rally? Eventually - you will make money - OR NOT!
GotBitCoins
Re: Prediction for this coming week, BTC to $1.50 by Friday 19-04-2013
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If Bitcoin fails, I will still be able to buy my weekly bottle of Riesling. Stick to your own trading strategy, and if ever you make it big, you will lean towards my thinking, perhaps even without knowing it.
Seems your goal is similar to the Winklevoss twins, accumulating loads to have a decent shot to go from well-off/rich to being super rich - so I can understand your strategy. There are others who try to trade Bitcoin as a kind of job which they derive their 'salary' from and those people will trade more aggressively. Then there are those that buy it as a lottery ticket, saying they don't care really what happens and just hope their 10 BTC can one day be 1 million years from now.
Each of these strategies are different and none are necessarily better than the other, just different goals/levels of risk/expectations.
I personally find that Bitcoin moves with a lot of momentum - that applies to both up and down movements. When it is going up you want to ride that as far as it can go...not trying to magically find the peak to sell at (it's okay selling 20% off the peak during a crash). Once the bubble has popped and it's on it way down, you really want to let it crash as low as possible and wait out to buy in again (its okay buying 20%-50% higher than the absolute bottom price if you are confident its about to enter a major phase up). I could obviously be wrong, but that's a trading strategy I'm comfortable with as I do believe in the boom/bust cycle of hype.
Thank you. This is one of the best posts I've read today.
I want to share my secret with you. This gives me confidence to buy and hold bitcoins. Instead of making money myself, I want to make the dream come true. The universe has that dream, so it will be fulfilled regardless, I just feel it is my place to be right now.
Mister market won't give you easy money! just when everybody start to realize that they should buy at 50 and sell at 150, the market shall go down to 50 and then slowly but surely continue down, down, down... - and it is then that you may give up after losing tons of money. Don't expect the market to let you ride the volatility again - it will fool you! It will - because the minute everybody realize and adopt a strategy - it doesn't work any more! that's life! No easy money and no gifts and no presents.
GotBitCoins.
+1 ^this
Because E must be a VERY under-valued price!! When Bitcoin reached 47$ people were shocked how high it went and how huge the bubble is - don't you forget that!!!!! 50$ is still a huge bubble with lots of cheering crowds! those crowds should be evaporated before you can say that the low is in!! If before the bubble started the price was say 10$ - then the fear and anxiety of all the cheering crowds right now is going to take the price lower than 10$ - that's a REAL E !!
The graph like pattern can be considered a fractal. And so on any given day or moment, we can find the exact same pattern. The last 12 hours looks like this!
So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.
But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.
my two satoshis.
So, as the time horizon extends, and the graph gets larger, we shall see the same pattern on an extended scale. say 2660 to 550 stabilizing at 1150, only to move to 22600, etc.
But the patter remains the same, just the scale differs.
my two satoshis.
Maybe...
Maybe in 2011 we saw prices soaring to 30$ and then diminishing to 3$
And in 2013 we saw prices soaring to 260$ and then diminishing to 26$
And in 2015 we shall see prices soaring to 2600$ and then diminishing to 260$...
But now at this junction when someone is holding serious money, say 500,000$ in his hands - isn't it better to wait for lower prices to join in? Much lower prices? Cause you know - if this fractal plan doesn't work... - this is serious money that could be lost...
So better be aware of the evil local sucker's rally - no?
GotBitCoins.
We don't know the true price of BitCoin right?
What is a true price? The government approved price? The inner value? What's the inner value of gold - it's just protons, neutrons and electrons, just like pish. It even shares the color.
Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't.
The gold price is manipulated like hell.
200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.
Remember, Bitcoin was dead, dead, dead after the crash in June 2011 - lost like 95%.
Sure, if the morons drive the price up 10% a day like they did, take their money. I did, too. Bought everything back at 64 and 54. And I am in the 5K club. Easily. So the morons handed me almost a Million $ - Falkvinge got probably way more than I got. Remember, it is a zero-sum game. That's why I am saying: Stop panic buying, stop panic selling. Add liquidity, don't take liquidity. You profit from the morons, you stabilize the price.
It's just that I am not so sure that if and when the price shall drop to say 20$ - if then I will be able to commit to the 5K club - because this is serious money still, and the scenario according to which this whole thing goes down to 10$, down to 5$, 0.5$, zip - is possible.
I keep on thinking about what Satoshi was trying to avoid - he tried to avoid BitCoin to get publicity, he wanted the software to strengthen, he was afraid of the burning match effect and thus when wikileaks asked to adopt BitCoin - he tried to avoid that saying
"The project needs to grow gradually so the software can be strengthened along the
way. I make this appeal to Wikileaks not to try to use Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a small beta
community in its infancy. You would not stand to get more than pocket change, and the
heat you would bring would likely destroy us at this stage."
GotBitCoins
But then it shall drop and shall become under-valued for a while - let's say 10$ ??
GotBitCoins
In 2011 everyone expected Bitcoin to die. Only complete morons will assume that today. Everyone knows that another default like Cyprus is just a matter of time. Considering the youth unemployment in Greece and Spain, a civil war there is imminent, with everything that entails (forced war bonds, outright confiscation....)
Argentinians get to know the advantages of Bitcoin while the government goes full scale totalitarian these days. If you want to sell Mendoza wines or beef, there are 2 possibilities: Get payment through the banking system and lose 60% at the official exchange to Pesos, or get paid in Bitcoin.
And with all these possibilities of massive upturn, you expect $10?
We don't know the true price of BitCoin right? But even at 20$ it was in a bubble right? I remember I first heard about bitCoin when it was 14$ and in the 10 days that it took me to wire my funds to MtGox it went up to almost 20$. So that's a whopping rise of 50% already!! and I mean it was up already thousands of % by that time for the true early adopters - yes? So suppose that 10$ is a pre bubble price and now there's a HUGE scare all around the world and the price of BitCoin goes up to wholly cow - 20$ !!!! WOWWwww!!! so high!!! it's like you say that Gold which is trading at 1400$ goes to 2800$ because of this cyprus scare... - and it doesn't. 200$ is 10X that - it's absolutely outrageously high price. Surely it will collapse, and I don't know yet if when it crashes I will use my gains in order to join the 5K BTC club because frankly after such a parabola and such a crash - it may never go up again.
GotBitCoins
no guys. you are all wrong.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.
this member is an expert. he joined one month ago and knows everything that he is talking.
make him feel good that he is so smart.
How old are you sweetie? who cares about the date of joining the forum? You need to live long enough and watch the price of stocks and commodities and go through several bubbles to be able to identify a bubble. It's amazing how the price is following the same pattern - how on the first day after the crash - people are saying that the crash is over and the price indeed went up to 200$... and then it's amazing how the price goes lower than all expectations just to rise again and pull everybody in again into this sucker's rally. It happend so many times in the past - just google 'financial bubble' and you won't believe it - there's almost always that bump that takes the price real high - it sometimes almost goes beyond the top of the bubble value - it lurs you in - you are just starting to believe that wow - it's going up forever!...
GotBitCoins.
The "crash" looks like a minor speed bump when you zoom out a bit:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zl
Yea! you are right - it's just a little whinney nothing of a bump - price should continue on - according to my extrapolation we are talking about 10,000$ per BTC in October...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/to%20infinity%20and%20beyond.jpg
Actually - more likely... I mean more likely than your little bump story that we shall face the same crash just like in 2011 - so it will take us to sub 10$ in 8 months...
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/42701585/same%20decline.jpg
I am not saying that this will be the scenario - I am just saying that... it's more likely than your little bump thesis.
This forum is going to be real quiet by then, especially the speculation sub-section....
GotBitCoins.
The psychology of those replying on this thread tell me that the bear is still in its infancy
Definitely! Reading the responses to my thread - I am now even more sure that Bitcoin shall be traded at much much lower prices...
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GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.
Oh I did that already!! yea I used to be in that 'beyond 1000 BTC club" when I bought at sub 20$ and sold at ~170$ just to buy again when you were doing in your pants at 60$ and selling again at 99$.
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There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
[\quote]
Oh I still Got Bitcoins... I have ~4 BTCs or so in my Android wallet... just in case I need to buy something to drink....
Don't worry - I have the right balls to buy just when everyone are panicking - no worries here - otherwise you don't make much money eh?
[\quote]
Oh I still Got Bitcoins... I have ~4 BTCs or so in my Android wallet... just in case I need to buy something to drink....
Quote
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
Don't worry - I have the right balls to buy just when everyone are panicking - no worries here - otherwise you don't make much money eh?
GotBitCoins, yep you are absolutely correct. Your curve fitting skills are admirable. Now I dare you dump whatever satoshis you hold and never buy any bitcoins again.
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
There is going to be lots of "ohh I had a whole bitcoin, but sold it too early" stories. Like "you kids could have been sorted with trust funds and everything. Too bad you daddy was a greedy and fearful idiot." Just you wait.
Dump your coins and risk you grandchildren pissing on your grave and saying "this fucker was lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time, but had no brain, balls and heart to hold on to his coins."
And this is how a 'hero' member express himself... haha - too funny!
Because E must be a VERY under-valued price!! When Bitcoin reached 47$ people were shocked how high it went and how huge the bubble is - don't you forget that!!!!! 50$ is still a huge bubble with lots of cheering crowds! those crowds should be evaporated before you can say that the low is in!! If before the bubble started the price was say 10$ - then the fear and anxiety of all the cheering crowds right now is going to take the price lower than 10$ - that's a REAL E !!
Who are these "people" you speak of? I think $50 is very very undervalued price for 1 BTC.
here - 11/March/2013
Here are some of the people that were shocked at how high and how fast the price went to 50
"Jesus are we going to hit 50 today?"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149245.0
"BitCoin Party"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149217.0
"Max Keiser/Stacy Herbert Tweeting like crazy about bitcoins"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149805.0
"Youre all getting Greedy"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=149873.0
oh well you know what just go to 11/March in this forum... here
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.1440
GotBitCoins