Cheers. I'm not so hopeful for wave 5 to be the strongest wave yet, if we don't correct and consolidate along the way.

Also I'm modelling the pattern on ETHUSD daily, not exact, but it's a typical setup - flag, pop and drop. The 5th wave out of the consolidation is a sign of euphoria, everyone thinks the trend is continuing, until suddenly it isn't and it's a rush for the exit.

There is also the upper trendline on the weekly/monthly to consider. If we keep going straight up here, that is going to be around 45k and I would expect it to get front run. I don't know the mathematical term but the market has been arcing downwards, losing momentum over time.

EDIT: also fibs, extensions etc. 30k is a good target.


The main thing is about structure, ATH and bearish super cycle could be closer than we think if we don't take a breather and I would be interested in Luc's perspective, although he does get a bit bulltarded.




Other thing is indexes are basically going parabolic, a sign of an irrational market IMO. Same story I think, might end badly.

any word from the Master?



At this rate we'll hit 30k in a month, and at that level, I highly doubt the parabola will end well.


It would be the 5th wave on long term charts and 5th wave is generally shorter.

Dreams of 50-100k+ may be cut short if we don't got some proper consolidation/correction.

Otherwise it's pop and drop and multi year bear market, longest one yet IMO. Would be interested what the top analysts say. Many I have heard agree that if we don't get a proper correction here, it's going to open up 3k or lower again.


Stocks are showing similar irrationality too.


Cheers

Bitcoin price consistently seems to be driven by idiotic traders more than anything.

Traders who become so biased they do things like short this run again and again and again.... This along with the strange bottom structure (which starts to look like the tail end of a giant stop hunt), leaves bitcoin moving in max pain scenario. Absolute maximum pain is we don't retrace ever again IMO

yeah I too am concernced for the new market conditions...

the whole market is different now. Previously it was the early players, the nerds, the tech heads, the believers, and there was buying all the way down. This drop is different... and equity markets may be about to go major bear.

looking for a bounce from here though, how high will be very telling.

shorts on bfx are totally euphoric right now, a strong indication of what the majority of the market thinks about bitcoin. In the same way they thought it would get them rich going up, they will blindly short all the way down, close eyes, and still profit :/

powered by magic internet money dust



sadly I just became bearish today, I have no idea why... just don't trust the spike or the structure, although maybe just short term bearish.

Overall it would be good to see ranging this year with no real defined trend, it's a good outcome overall for bitcoin as it would be a large corrective and would show interest, a mature market, and big players/MMs trying to shave down everyone of all their bitcoin before a new bulllish cycle. It's been funny to watch the spikes stopping everyone out all the time... some market makers must be having fun

Last I heard he was working on a rocket design

I don't really agree with this classification in general - Bitcoin alone should be Gen 1 and Eth wasn't born in 2016 for starters.

Also there are already working coins intended for use with AI/machine learning. Have a look at Verus for an interesting concept along these lines.

edu or non edu?

when will you have more stackable non edu in stock?

translation confirmed: moon

buy before you cry

last I remember he was Ukrainian...?

he was talking about sounds of gunfire and battles in the distance back when the Ukrainian conflict was getting going to full swing...

"shitting up the thread" indeed...



Anyways, he last gave us the classic up down or sideways (all bases covered). Each of his versions did end on a bullish note however. I won't quote it, you should be able to read. Anyone who thinks they know what is next with certainty, has some issues.

My best guess is still for ranging for some time, upto a few months. As you can see we are pretty firmly rejecting the latest bull run inside the range. So maybe we'll go test the lows again. 8-10k

you basically just said "if the price goes up or down, holding is the best choice, but when the price goes up, I will sell"... makes perfect sense to me!

some of us like to actively trade to increase various possibilities. If anything it helps in the long term identifying if 70k is a good level to sell at. I have to admit, it was very hard for the first year or 2, swings in balance are inevitable. It gets easier, and holding is not necessarily the best option when competition takes money away from btc, even if that's only for medium/short term. I know someone who does put his btc into alts from time to time, so he is at least holding something other than cash. His approach is always to accumulate more btc though.

he suggest 10k retest first from here, and 8k may be too low to expect, or may feel quite bearish, but still a positive buy.

This is why I suggest sideways/further correction afterwards, further touches of 10k or below would be quite a big event compared to previous corrections in the year. Also a very large amount of money has flown to alts such as ether for this upcoming long trade in ethbtc. This may take some steam out of the sails for btc for a few months or so.

yeah, I don't really believe some specific typical capitalist entity or group of actors aka "Wall Street" can short bitcoin down in the markets just because they feel like it or just because they can, just because they have deep pockets. Market rules still apply, and bitcoin is large enough now for it not to be quite that type of timid asset that would take kindly to newcomers trying to mess with it. Old hands have lots of coins and have been trading this for a while.

It's also not really fair though to say that futures wouldn't have an effect on spot btc, it will have some sort of effect, as many factors do, but they are all represented there in the graph and who's to say what exactly is the driving factor most of the time. 2nd guessing a million variables when all you really need is 2 is kind of a waste of time. It's generally a helpful thought experiment though IMO, to play with ideas about what people may be thinking and what new pressures may be in effect on the market. Personally my 2nd guessing is that crypto has grown very fast and wide this year and has a lot going for it in many ways, hype included, it's not going into bear market mode for a while yet, though I expect more of a correction/sideways action from here as there is a new context to this last big sell off and action that was more severe than any previous since the start of this big bull run, also seasonally more significant as well as straight out of a parabolic rise and a weak, low volume and fairly rounded top.  

you can short bitcoin with cash, though you may borrow btc to do so (from lenders who wouldn't be selling otherwise).

yeah... I was too early with the wedge call, but:

2 conditions and one asset definition were in the post. My alternative scenario is this bounce, onwards to 16-17k and down... more appropriate considering how bullish bitcoin is and has been.

edit: the reasoning behind it being the default given those conditions is from looking at several historical big sell offs since 2014, but was mostly inspired by my experience of the Nov 2015 run to 500 and the constant bullish calls while we were in that wedge before the drop to 300. Other forms of consolidation or local corrective behaviour can provide a default output of further downside also. For example, we could just drift sideways/ weakly upwards for days or more with no new major highs, until the message sinks in.

we are in a wedge after the big sell off... the default output for btc after a big selloff followed by a wedge is further downside, that's when I expect we'll test the 10k and below range.

https://uk.tradingview.com/x/48f2czx4/

this is precisely why I think ranging similar to post April 2013 is on the cards. Traders will trade both sides, the range will get tighter, and eventually we'll continue upwards. Too many long term bulls for this to really drop IMO. Despite the propensity towards mass panic for all the newcomers, I'm sure enough have been indoctrinated into the hodl mentality by now, and also enough experienced bitcoin traders who've seen it all before ready to scoop up coins at key levels. 

Luc hasn't really given us much here, he's given us the classic "up, down or sideways" possibles that a market always has. All of them end in up though, ofc

To avoid confusion, the only "right up to" is "2. The classic output bitcoin from the bear trap is bluntly up. At 70k. Up to a month"

Other options he suggested were a long bear market, then upto 100k, or 2 month-ish ranging then continuation.

Personally I think 2 is the least probable at this stage. Let's see how the next price action unfolds...