enough said, kek

Sometimes we are looking for a trend without any evidence for a trend other than our attempts to draw a straight line. Life ain't that simple. 

Just a quick update...

Date   11/28/18
VWAP   $4,098.94
x   3056
y   8.318484
a (slope) historical   +0.0032121222
b (intercept) historical   -0.0144982009
Rsq historical   0.869245
BETI historical   -1.483263
Expected price historical   $18,065.28
Actual price / expected price historical   22.68% (kek!)
 
-2.00   $2,444.87
-1.50   $4,030.91
-1.00   $6,645.84
-0.50  $10,957.15
-0.25  $14,069.25
+0.00  $18,065.28
+0.25  $23,196.27
+0.50  $29,784.61
+1.00  $49,106.52

Note: the previous BETI chart was an "historical" plot computed with its regression parameters (slope and intercept) based on the information that was available until that day (so also all days preceding it).

Please compare it with the following chart, which re-computes all past BETIs based on the knowledge we have today, and using only the current data regression parameters. Past BETI values change, obviously, but the plot offers more “big picture rambling” for those of you noticing the current resistance level, with a look at where we are today...

https://i.imgur.com/ZArJRDS.png

And this will be the historical BETI chart using absolutely all the BTC/USD entries in bitcoincharts.com since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today:

https://i.imgur.com/dc5h98r.png

Just a quick clarification... in order to prevent PMs.

In my previous post, even when I mentioned that "175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 were used" this was not totally correct (my fault). I really started at user jl2012's original date of Saturday, 17 July 2010. This was for comparison purposes.

But if absolutely all the data is used... then the BETI stats are as follows:

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   3056 (note this)
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.0034328567
b (intercept) historical   -0.6732619229
Rsq historical   0.849800825183905
BETI historical   -1.0499563126
Expected Price historical   $18353.00
Actual price / expected price historical   34.99530373%

-2.00   $2,483.81
-1.50   $4,095.11
-1.00   $6,751.69
-0.50   $11,131.65
-0.25  $14293.33
+0.00  $18,353.00
+0.25  $23,565.71
+0.50  $30,258.97
+1.00  $49,888.61

Just a not-so-quick update.

The stats are obtained as follows:

• All the historical BTC/USD data available at bitcoincharts,com is used.
• So a total of 175,864,433 entries since Sunday, 25 April 2010 16:37:04 till today are used.
• The exchanges included are: 1coin, abucoins, allcoin, anxhk, b2c, b7, bcLR, bcmBM, bcmLR, bcmMB, bcmPP, bitalo, bitbay, bitbox, bitcurex, bitfinex, bitfloor, bitflyer, bitkonan, bitmarket, bitme, bitstamp, btc24, btcalpha, btcc, btce, btcex, btctree, cbx, cex, coinbase, coinsbank, cotr, cryptox, crytr, exchb, exmo, fbtc, getbtc, global, hitbtc, ibwt, icbit, imcex, indacoin, intrsng, itbit, just, kraken, lake, localbtc, lybit, mtgox, okcoin, ripple, rock, ruxum, thLR, th, vcx, weex, wex

Date   9/6/18
VWAP   $6422.69
x   2973
y   8.767592
a (slope) historical   +0.00327084849169102
b (intercept) historical   -0.069262946826707
Rsq historical   0.864354018483482
BETI historical   -0.887377824698852
Expected Price historical   $15,599.11
Actual price / expected price historical   41.1733977153379%

-2.00   $2,111.11
-1.50   $3,480.63
-1.00   $5,738.59
-0.50   $9,461.34
-0.25  $12,148.60
+0.00  $15,599.11
+0.25  $20,029.66
+0.50  $25,718.60
+1.00  $42402.80

You know... It cannot be more comprehensive than this... and the result is very similar to the one using just Mt Gox and Bitstamp.

By the way, il_minatore, feel free to make a list of your preferred exchanges, and I will produce the relevant BETI statistics.

Well, it's in agreement with my personal belief that after the 12/7/17 ATH we are experiencing the beginning of a 7-year bear market.

Okay. The following stats are obtained as follows:

• Mt. Gox: from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
• coinbase + bitstamp + btce + kraken + bitfinex + cex + lake + localbtc + wex + btcalpha + itbit + hitbtc: from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today

Date   9/6/18 (yeah, I am starting to have data available from today)
VWAP   $6417.29
x   2973
y   8.766752
a (slope) historical   +0.0032734323
b (intercept) historical   -0.0742908548
Rsq historical   0.866719
BETI historical   -0.890872
Expected Price historical   $15,640.56
Actual price / expected price historical   41.03%

Not that it matters, kek.

Just a quick update...

Date   9/5/18
VWAP   $7055.87
x   2972
y   8.861616
a (slope) historical   +0.0032683894
b (intercept) historical   -0.0708358360
Rsq historical   0.866482
BETI historical   -0.781202 (kek!)
Expected Price historical   $15,410.70
Actual price / expected price historical   45.79%

Following user jl2012's instructions from their first post, etc.

tl;dr:
Mt. Gox, CSV data available from Saturday, 17 July 2010 23:09:17 to Tuesday, 25 February 2014 1:59:06, implicitly removing from 20 Jun 2011 to 25 Jun 2011 (MtGox was closed).
Bitstamp, CSV data available from Tuesday, 13 September 2011 13:53:36 to Today, implicitly removing from 6 Jan 2015 to 8 Jan 2015 (Bitstamp was closed).
VWAP: daily Volume Weighted Average Price (from bitcoincharts.com), i.e. when computing the average for a given day, the price is being multiplied by the volume of bitcoin traded at that price.
Regression model (computed in C with gsl_fit_linear(): y = ax + b,  where y = natural logarithm of VWAP; x = days since MtGox inception, i.e. 17 Jul 2010 = 0; a = slope; b = intercept
Today's exponential tread expected price: the expected price of today based on the regression model, i.e. = ax + b
BETI: Bitcoin Exponential Trend Index. BETI = ln (daily VWAP / exponential tread expected price) [For example, on Sep 2 2018, the VWAP was $7244.62 and the expected price was $15,306.94. BETI = ln ($7244.62/$15,306.94) = -0.748048]

In my humble opinion, BETI heads toward -2.0 (hopefully not).

Just a quick update...

Date   9/2/18
VWAP   $7244.62
x   2969
y   8.888014
a (slope) historical   +0.0032699269
b (intercept) historical   -0.0723514146
Rsq historical   0.866297
BETI historical   -0.748048
Expected Price historical   $15,306.94
Actual price / expected price historical   47.33%
  
-2.00   $2,071.57
-1.50   $3,415.44
-1.00   $5,631.11
-0.50   $9,284.13
-0.25  $11,921.06
+0.00  $15,306.94
+0.25  $19,654.50
+0.50  $25,236.88
+1.00  $41,608.57

Quick update...

Date   8/19/18
VWAP   $6699.18
x   2963
y   8.809740
a (slope) historical   +0.0032730580
b (intercept) historical   -0.0754331731
Rsq historical   0.865930
BETI historical   -0.8128979
Expected Price historical   $15,102.83
Actual price / expected price historical   44.357%
  
-2.00    $2,043.95
-1.50    $3,369.90
-1.00    $5,556.02
-0.50    $9,160.33
-0.25   $11,762.10
+0.00  $15,102.83
+0.25  $19,392.42
+0.50  $24,900.36
+1.00  $41,053.76

Interestingly, Bitstamp's ATH on Sunday, 17 December 2017 12:25:03 ($19666.00) is currently BETI +0.264009.

Bitcoin's current price index ($6702.01) is -57.96% below McAfee's bet's price target.

The price needs to increase to $15943.71 to be on target for $1M/Bitcoin by the three year deadline ending in 857 days, kek.

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Date   8/19/18
VWAP   $6416.1759650696549215
x   2955
y   8.7665775751474566
a (slope) historical   +0.0032775783
b (intercept) historical   -0.0798716214
Rsq historical   0.863606006540574
BETI historical   -0.865999803537237 (kek)
Expected Price historical   $15,253.70004769077
Actual price / expected price historical   42.0630794168592%
  
-2.25   $1,607.728156725878
-2.00   $2,064.363816360560
-1.75   $2,650.695609497465
-1.50   $3,403.560534497352
-1.25   $4,370.258233529915
-1.14   $4,829.882304177912
-1.00   $5,611.522649341281
-0.75   $7,205.337708073138
-0.50   $9,251.836752984507
-0.25   $11,879.59354187789
0.00   $15,253.70004769077
0.25   $19,586.13855976596
0.50   $25,149.09972550732
0.75   $32,292.08325436611
1.00   $41,463.85565640268
1.25   $53,240.64453669281
1.50   $68,362.34078595092
1.75   $87,778.98311343000
2.00   $112,710.4453686482
2.25   $144,723.0765795394