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Even if the arrays did work as expected I don't see how anyone could possibly make an actual market call without using TA along with it (MA's reversals are likely built from the support/resistance lines but you don't get to see them visually to make entry/exit points). I tried to use just the arrays to figure out market directions (daily/weekly) and failed miserably (worse than a coin flip). What I did find was that there were some patterns on there (which I mentioned above) that could provide insight but all you might get from it would be "watch for a trend change during this time frame". You can't tell if it's up or down but when you combine it with TA it can be helpful IMHO (without TA it would be completely useless IMHO).
This is the chart that goes back to the 70s, which shows some symmetry with the parallel channels, within close angle, and 'corrective'
waves in the middle. the trend stood for more than 10 years, and had a wedge like formation that overshoot quite substantially to the upper channel.
One could look at the economic situation - events at the time for correlations.
On the other hand , the current Wedge has already overshoot and approaching Support. Also hit some Fibonacci level. RSI has a minor break of trend.
https://postimg.cc/vcZKgpd1
Nice chart, really helps to keep overall perspective on where you are in the market today. Also yes, it's that overshoot in 2016 that caused the G/S ratio to go down and touch the other side of the channel (it then failed a breakout and stayed in the channel). If we get a break out to the downside now then there's a very high probability we are looking at yet another large rally coming for PMs.
Thanks MTL4. Yes, I agree with you.
This is the chart that goes back to the 70s, which shows some symmetry with the parallel channels, within close angle, and 'corrective'
waves in the middle. the trend stood for more than 10 years, and had a wedge like formation that overshoot quite substantially to the upper channel.
One could look at the economic situation - events at the time for correlations.
On the other hand , the current Wedge has already overshoot and approaching Support. Also hit some Fibonacci level. RSI has a minor break of trend.
https://postimg.cc/vcZKgpd1
The Martin Armstrong Gold / Silver Ratio Fallacy
Gold/Silver ratio daily
...
...
In the video available as part of the Metals Report subscription, Martin Armstrong made a clear statement regarding the significance of the Gold / Silver Ratio with respect to a potential Gold Rally, using Reversals and Forecast Arrays as follows.
To cut a long story short: It is all bullshit, some other wizardry to keep the fools entertained and keep them buying his products. Martin Armstrong said that the Gold/Siver ratio needs to fall below 70 to get a change in trend. The ratio actually dipped below 70 without a precious metal rally after that time, but interestingly, while the Gold price rallied, the ratio then rose steadily up to now between 85 and 90, at the time when we have a significant precious metals rally. To make it clear: This is the opposite effect, and we are trying to derive conclusions from this?
Transcript from Video, made on 2016-07-01:
Now I said before that one of the reasons that we saw for example, that gold was not ready, was simply that this silver gold ratio has been rising. In a bull market, it normally declines which would then show we would then have people buying silver as well as gold. So this is been absent as you can see from effectively 2011. Now we went up and we reached this high in February. Now we have been moving down fairly aggressively but we have still not elected any monthly bearish reversals to say the trend is starting to change. We need that confirmation [shows monthly bearish reversals 7310, 7395, 7026, 6024] and now, what we are really looking at, we have taken out the first two minor ones, we really have to get below this 70 area, and then ultimately we have to take out 6024. But once that begins to develop, now we are looking at a long term change in trend. So this is one of the criteria that we have to look at moving forward. [changes to forecast array] Now let's look at the timing of this. From the February high, we had a directional change in March. That has materialized so far, and we ended up with a bit of a, a major volatility rise here in July. And our next real turning point is coming in August - we can see that we have a bit of a choppy period when we come into the elections through October, that's where we have a panic cycle, and then next January is the biggest turning point. So we may see then a movement down, reaction up, if we get a reaction to the upside in January next year that will probably be it on the gold silver ratio. The real breakout in the middle still appears to be more around 2018.
Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
Firstly, thanks for the information, which I did/do not have access to. If there is a Monthly version, reversals could be helpful.
Secondly, Its important to mention, I am not defending Martin on this "Fallacy" accusation, which I find improper, as you are quoting my title, and somehow linking my observations/chart analysis with what Martin has said about the Subject. I mentioned before about the aspect of Respect.
When I really trade on a chart, there are no assumptions or Sayings, Ifs and buts, but a Strict following of rules.
As I started the Subject, and tried to correlate the Array I will put down some further observations on the short time i had. From the first look of it,
the second major Monthly Reversal held ground, and from the Array, the Composite pointed to a correction, not a long term change in trend.
During this G/S ratio correction both metals rallied. From then on, there is actually a longer term consolidation on Gold with historic relevance, the formation of a head and shoulders and very recently a breakout. Gold front run the brake out, but not Silver, ( taking into consideration the economic situation, financial Stress, Treasuries, no Inflation ) leading to the G/S Wedge formation( this is unrealized of course until proven ).
Recently Silver price is catching up. Usually there is an overshoot on such formations, as in this case of the Wedge, until a change in trend.
Gold/Silver ratio daily
Hindsight doesn't count.
Recency bias doesn't count.
Cherry picking doesn't count.
Confirmation bias doesn't count.
All samples from various different market conditions counts. But when that happens, the arrays fail. We've been over this a bunch of times on this forum. You can read up on the several hundred pages to verify. Arrays are trash. Give me 10 trade calls in advance based on Socrates. I guarantee they will not be 100%.
100% bias does not count. this is a fictional number in trading. Trade Management and R:R suffice.
Gold/Silver ratio daily
Picked the Array from previous post. It seems, The composite picked the high 16', after consecutive rises within the parallel channels, the correction and continuation to higher level. Another high coinciding with Fibonacci level and this is a classic Wedge formation. Last week, price is accelerating towards break and also the uptrend/parallel line.
Now, here it gets interesting. You can see the Volatility on the Array, this makes sense, on the Turn and as it approaches the brake or not(brake up).
I would like to ask if there is a monthly version ? The chart goes to the 70s, with some repeated patterns, coinciding with this particular timing regarding the Economic situation and the past. as you know this ratio is quite important. cheers
https://postimg.cc/Sjcbch8K
https://postimg.cc/1fHxYrvh
Picked the Array from previous post. It seems, The composite picked the high 16', after consecutive rises within the parallel channels, the correction and continuation to higher level. Another high coinciding with Fibonacci level and this is a classic Wedge formation. Last week, price is accelerating towards break and also the uptrend/parallel line.
Now, here it gets interesting. You can see the Volatility on the Array, this makes sense, on the Turn and as it approaches the brake or not(brake up).
I would like to ask if there is a monthly version ? The chart goes to the 70s, with some repeated patterns, coinciding with this particular timing regarding the Economic situation and the past. as you know this ratio is quite important. cheers
https://postimg.cc/Sjcbch8K
https://postimg.cc/1fHxYrvh
Do you have any Idea on Trading for yourself , or do you just blame other people in your life ? Do you have any real experience on the subject ?
Wrong question, wrong approach. I am not here to answer your question. You came out announcing that YOU would make contributions. Where are they? 15 years of experience with what exactly? Please provide material that is useful for the readers of this forum. Otherwise what is the point?
The fact that we want to engage you on the subject does not mean that you can engage me with personal attacks. Everything that needs to be said has already been said here so I do not have anything to answer. I am only here to dismantle these Martin Armstrong lies.
There are indeed people in this forum who talked about themselves in detail, and they are recommending to stay away from Martin Armstrong's product:
blinder007
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1082909.msg51632101#msg51632101
Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
Yea wrong approach to what ? to you ?
I am not here to prove other people work or teach you how to trade. I have made my mind and experience. So lets get on with the talk of the Trading Stuff, and leave the Identified-Categorize-newbies Superlatives personal attacks as you clearly did. Technical Analysis is the most important tool, on trading, (IMO- Yea everyone has an opinion - just respect that).
...
Yes I agree as well, its from the viewpoint of Cycles, and how they interfere, I am not a strict follower of Socrates per se, dont trade on it, as I am more a technical trader done it 15 years research, built my own rules , but when something comes up,(often)
I will look at it/him ECM and look for correlations and Syncs, especially on timing. I have been following the guy for 15 years, from the famous letters from inside, then looked at the guy ,past and present, attended some WECs. His experience alone, is massive, and thats what counts. I will try to add, to the discussion, anything valuable, from the System alone or what he says.
Yes I agree as well, its from the viewpoint of Cycles, and how they interfere, I am not a strict follower of Socrates per se, dont trade on it, as I am more a technical trader done it 15 years research, built my own rules , but when something comes up,(often)
I will look at it/him ECM and look for correlations and Syncs, especially on timing. I have been following the guy for 15 years, from the famous letters from inside, then looked at the guy ,past and present, attended some WECs. His experience alone, is massive, and thats what counts. I will try to add, to the discussion, anything valuable, from the System alone or what he says.
Identified
Another newbie to add to the list of affiliate aliases:
Gumbi, Strike Eagle 26, over45, Alex-11, Jason100
Wash, rinse and repeat. We will see a lot of superlatives but no facts. A guy with 15 years of research and no facts. Let's keep him engaged to expose that banality again and again for everyone else to see.
The facts can be found in this forum:
Read this blog starting at page 273 to find out more about computerized fraud
See https://armstrongecmscam.blogspot.com for a more compact view of major findings posted in this blog
Do you have any Idea on Trading for yourself , or do you just blame other people in your life ? Do you have any real experience on the subject ?
as MA has told numerous times, dailies are noise.
I think he said that only because he thinks weekly and monthly is easier to trade.
this is interesting indeed, he says that because the higher time frame has a 'weighted advantage' compared to the lower. The "wave" in the higher is stronger.
but still not noise, when you trade the daily, but have to check both.
....by looking at the forecast array which is again ambiguous....
Forcast arrays have clear rules which you can follow. There are a few situation were it's hard to decide whether it's turning point, cycle inversion or sideways movement, but in general there is not that much ambiguity if you follow all the rules
Hi Alex, thanks
Yes I agree as well, its from the viewpoint of Cycles, and how they interfere, I am not a strict follower of Socrates per se, dont trade on it, as I am more a technical trader done it 15 years research, built my own rules , but when something comes up,(often)
I will look at it/him ECM and look for correlations and Syncs, especially on timing. I have been following the guy for 15 years, from the famous letters from inside, then looked at the guy ,past and present, attended some WECs. His experience alone, is massive, and thats what counts. I will try to add, to the discussion, anything valuable, from the System alone or what he says.