Correlation is not causation.

I thought that we were talking about 61.8% retrace of a drop, hence 19700-11159 (on tradeview)=8541 points
multiply by 0.618=5278

11159+5278=16,437, which would be a 61.8% retrace of the drop.
I don't think anybody else is talking about the move from $175 or 1k or 3.5K.

Some people use a different low, i just use the tradeview's one.

Please don't think I'm saying this to be harsh or criticize you negatively, but you can google that question, read up a little, and you'll be much more able to contribute to this discussion.
I think we should devote our time to exegesis of the master's pronouncements rather than engaging in a tutorial session.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp

The correction already reached its first objective which is $15,700 which is just a Fibonacci level same as the recent top.    Any fright between those two prices is just the audience

masterluc's latest message:

Any heroic soul care to translate?

15 800

Looks to me like the most recent Tether injection has not resulted in the uptrend resuming with the same strength it was... i've trimmed my BTC exposure. Good luck to all remaining longs! ;P

(more fool me if it suddenly blasts through 20k though hehe!)

Yes thats what is freaking me out, it doesn't make any sense. A parabolic run up like this has *always* ended with a significant correction in the past, followed by a longer retrace and then a new bottom higher than the previous ATH, to springboard off.

The fact its just raced up to here and is now going sideways is what led me to speculate that somebody else with big pockets saw the top was in and is now holding the price here, accumulating, ready to do something. What? I don't know.

All of the continued cheerleading and we'll be at $20k soon, makes me feel uneasy.

Since learning about how the btc futures work, I am less bullish on the matter. They are cash settled meaning they are just bets and arent every settled against real bitcoins. Each owner has a brokerage account that is restricted to them that holds their bets. At the end of the trades the exchange uses bitcoin's price on real exchanges as an imaginary reference rate to settle the bets. Its like betting on horses. Those with losing bets pay those with winning bets - but never are real bitcoins actually touched - no clearinghouse is ever going to buy from bitstamp, etc. in relation to futures. I cant think of a way to arbitrage either, since futures cant be transferred away from their owner.

Futures are a trick and are not actually increasing the public's exposure to bitcoin at all.

Here is the potentially bearish take:

What is the limit on the futures? It has nothing to do with the amount of real bitcoins, since there is no settlement with real bitcoins. There could be billions of these futures. So essentially we have a limitless number of worthless imaginary coins being dumped to all wannabe bitcoin investors instead of them buying real bitcoins. Futures are keeping traders who were interested in buying real bitcoins on real exchanges, instead buying imaginary bitcoins on imaginary exchanges where they support the banks. It is effectively keeping them OUT of the bitcoin ecosystem right where the banks want them. Meanwhile our market cap of real bitcoins is not increasing at all. In fact we might even be having some of our traders SELLING and LEAVING so that they can trade on more reliable futures exchanges.