Exactly right.  In truth, none of us would want a legal system where a judge could permanently destroy a private business in a hearing, even if presented with an apparently incontestable preponderance of evidence.  And, from the outside at least, it doesn't look like FTC had that today in any event.

First I'll admit how I got here:  I've all but finished up watching or being concerned with the hardware thread; there's little more to see there from here on out, IMO.  I searched to see if you had left the forums, since I hadn't seen you on the BFL threads, and found this.

This is actually very much closer to my core business than bitcoins, so I'll make a couple of points, regarding EMA's and their use as trading signals.

First, an EMA "period" is actually a product of two dimensions:  sampling frequency and normalized parameter.  Example is easiest.  Say you want to construct an EMA with a period of 6 hours.  You solve for the parameter as \alpha = 2/(6+1),
if you are sampling once per hour.  

But if you sample every minute, then a parameter of \alpha = 2/(6*60+1) will give you a function that is virtually the same as the first, but with the ability to "respond" to signals every minute rather than once an hour.

Second, regarding EMA "signals."  There are two basic triggers used:  simple crossings of the lines, and so-called "directional bindings."  In other words, rules are "trade when price crosses ema", OR "trade when slope of function changes."  Except for "noise," "significance of the binding", or "price confirmation offset", these two rules are identical.  

This is because, by its mathematical construction, an EMA changes slope whenever a current price contributing to the function falls (rises) below(above) the current value of the EMA.

Just some off-top-of-head comments.

To me, what he said is quite clear, and actually devoid of speculation.  That companies are now bringing,  successively, hardware to market in a few months, even as BFL is still incapable of tapeout on the new machine and still many months behind in delivery of the old ones, seems evidence of "incompetence."

Moreover, the timely shipping of the bare chips, and the success of the DIY builders, suggests to me that BFL is not "purely nefarious," or else there would have some can-kicking or other shenanigans with them.  To see the outcome of that was really interesting to me, because I hoped for the best and feared the worst. 

I'm glad that they did so; and I was wrong taking the position that they would not ship as promised.  Not wrong in suspecting it, mind you, given the evidence and track record. 

Within six weeks or so, the pre-order model will be dead, acceptable only to newcomers who fail to understand the dynamics of difficulty and network hash rate.  There are probably enough of them to keep BFL's current business model in place for a good long time.  But, any more, I don't give a damn.   

Maybe.  It could be the typical outcome would be the same; there are often flurries in end bidding in live auctions as well, particularly in items where there is no well-defined value (artwork, animals, bitcoin miners).  

ProfMac might know of this man:  an economist named Vernon Smith, who won a Nobel prize for his work in experimental economics.  Smith would conduct experiments, replicating markets, with students and others, with incentives of real money gains, and obtained insights into those areas of econ where theory could not tread: those areas where "there were people in them."  

Someone of Smith's school of thought would try auctions of both forms, and see if there really was a consistent expected difference.

That's an excellent point.  The timed auction is the source of sniping in the first place.  

In a live auction, the highest rate of bid arrival is at the beginning as the true floor value is being set.  It ends only when, in the auctioneer's opinion (or in the signals of the last active bidders), there are no more bids.

I suspect that would have worked, and would have been good on a number of levels.

It's not just what to do with all the heat, though, right?  The typical standard for US single family homes is 100 amp service, and less for apartments.  With those machines running 24/7, it should leave around 25 amps for all the rest of the appliances and environmental uses in the house.  

You are absolutely right.  And if you reread my "lecture," and check my posting history, you'll see I have rarely, if ever, stated that anyone should not deal with anyone.  Pointing out evident corruption, or the probability of total loss, is different than falsely assuming the right to invoke en loco parentis.

On the other hand, the taste in my mouth that comes from a quite general willingness among bitcoin miners to deal with devils if they offer a possibility of hashing hardware is one of the reasons I'm still around here only to see the (hopefully) successful implementation of BFL's bare chips on DIY enablements.

Cheers.

Professor, I sense you are having difficulty coming to grips with the reality that that man is an unprincipled slug who deserves no further business, nor even any further recognition as a contributing member of the bitcoin community.  

After all, it's not like the case of BFL, where one can at least argue that there are no innocent victims, and that the customers were greedy followers of an illusion of free money and learned the lesson of that.  

The failure on the part of Avalon destroyed many in the open source community who expended time and treasure in the belief that the chips would be delivered.  

For example, the Klonkike developer, BKKcoins, has completely disappeared.  While one might hope that he got a great job out of the effort and left bitcoin behind, I fear that that is not the true outcome.  

It's easy psychology to understand, if you think about it.  

If there were X companies, each with an in-hand product, a price, and a performance, then there would be nothing to talk about.  Different strokes, different folks, maybe, but just everyone optimizing their utility over the set of alternatives.

The pre-order model has made this akin to a sporting season.  You follow your favorite team, win some, lose some.  You speculate on the team rosters' relative skills.  You tune into sportsbitcointalk forum every day to check out the day's box scores.  And, soon you're an emotionally invested fan, supporting your team, win or lose, and trashing the competing teams.

As pissy as this is, it, and your signature, are funny. 

Kind of reminds me of when Konstantine AG, which owns the rights to Downfall (the scenes in the Hitler parodies are from that movie) started to complain to Google and file takedowns.  As fast as they were taken down, others came up with Hitler finding out about them being forced to be taken down.

Konstantine finally figured out that having your images as part of an intenet meme wasn't bad for business, and, in fact, the entire subtitled movie was/is available on YouTube.  I know.  I watched it.  Spoiler:  All the Germans in the bunker die, except for the secretary.  (And, some say, Bormann, the chubby guy standing in the corner in the parodies.  But that's another, tin-foil-hat, 75 years-ago issue for historians now) 

First rule of ZH:  all posters are named Tyler Durden.  (See the movie Fight Club, where the first rule of Fight Club is: you do not talk about Fight Club.)

What?  The Rita Ranch IBM facility?  AFAIK, it's still - or was until recently - an important IBM storage media facility.  Admittedly, haven't had any reason to know one way or other for a few - no, some - years.

Now my curiosity is up.  I'll have to look.

EDIT:  Never mind.  I thought you were talking about the IBM facility.  "Boats" in Tucson.  That I had to see 

Sorry about that. 

I rarely ever read ZH comments.  They usually threaten to make my head explode, and make the "BFL fucks us over" thread read like a campfire cum-by-yah.   

It's 17:15 and all's well in the financial markets.  The currencies took no notice of the SR/BTC thing.

Here's how zerohedge, a financial market contrarian news/opinion site written by, and largely for, financial market insiders, reported the thing.  As usual, they are forecasting the End of Bitcoin.  They may know how to play the Treasury yield curve spreads for the government shutdown, but bitcoin?  They don't have a clue.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-02/bitcoin-plunges-following-us-government-seizure-silk-road-website

I'm surprised the assembly facility doesn't have showers.  I was in an IBM facility outside Tucson AZ one time, and they had better stuff than most spas.  Of course, they had clean rooms there.

Yes, I know that.  I believe it was 32 chips, right?

What I keep watching for are the Group Buys.  I think there was already at least one missed assurance of shipping last Friday.

EDIT: This doesn't belong here in any case.  I am honestly rooting for BFL to ship.

What a couple of days.

Silk Road is busted, and BTC, after the knee-jerk that always attends any speculative prices on surprise announcements, takes 80% it back and volatility returns almost to normal.

KnC goes a long way to removing "bitcoin ASIC vendor" from the lexicon of synonyms for "con men."

Now if BFL actually ships their chips on or around their promised 100-day points, there might just be some order, good will, and community attitude return to this feckin' business.

Avalon... well, my attitude is, "that was ugly and tragic, but they won't exist going forward, so why should I care?"

Time to do a little real world work.

Thank you for this link!

What a hell of a story.  Incredible detail, murder for hire, network architecture.  Fascinating stuff.  And, ironically, while Dread Pirate Roberts was living in San Franscisco, he went by the name "Josh."  Sometimes reality gives you stuff you could never ever think to make up.

He's certain to be looking at Maximum Security Life Without Parole on multiple counts.  Unless he starts to sing, loud and long...

And here I was, just yesterday, imagining you guys in London, livin' it up in Piccadilly, waiting to fly first class to do your victory laps in Atlanta this weekend.  

Hope you still get to do that, but, in the meantime, you -and of course KnC overall - have my utmost respect.

I trust I speak for those directly aided by your efforts:  Thanks, Man.