anyone else think we've entered the latter stages of logistic growth and we're leveling out.

http://charts.mql5.com/3/265/btcusd-h1-distel-enterprise.png

if the current rate of growth continues(doubling every 13 days or so) we will see $2000 buy Dec 16. I made a chart to illustrate the potential.

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1136206/btcusd-h4-distel-enterprise

can the market support that level right now?  maybe if we dont see a major crash this month we could hit $4000 by jan 1

i think its safe to assume it wont. but I wonder what price will be once this rate exhausts itself. once buyers run out of steam, sellers will take over driving price down in the same exponential fashion. i've been reading about damped oscillatory patterns because i see them everywhere on bitcoin charts. I'm not exactly sure of all the factors that drive these patterns but its interesting to think about none the less.

I'm not so sure that we wont see a -75% crash, in fact im pretty sure we will. however i think that when this happens price will reach equilibrium around 1k, not bad by any means

Its interesting to note that during the April bubble we saw around 2500% increase in price(if one assumes that the bubble started around $10) before having a major correction. i think its definitely possible for us to see $2500, and $2000 wouldn't really surprise me. however these levels terrify me because i just don't think they're realistic for the time they would be reached.

If price doesn't have a major correction this month or next, I wont know what to think.

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1129898/btcusd-h4-distel-enterprise

I was playing around with some charts trying to find the rate of growth for this current boom cycle. What I saw was that price has been doubling every 13 days or so since mid/late october. we started at around $125, reached the $250 level on Nov 7, $500 around Nov 20, then $1000 yesterday Dec 3. I'm not saying these dates are the exact time price hit those levels, just that if one were to draw the exponential curve on the chart the line would be at the price levels specified around the time specified. On the chart in the link, i marked these areas and its interesting to note that the last two fall around major areas of price correction. If the current rate of growth continues it would seem that price will reach $2000 around Dec 16.

Now my question/ concern is will this growth continue. Is new money coming in fast enough to get price that high in less than 2 weeks? I would expect a major correction near the $2000 level, which would likely be the major crash some of us are expecting(one similar to April) once this happens i would expect price to fall to around $500 and oscillate around the $1000 level where price would level out for a while before the next boom cycle(if it happens)

Furthermore, do you think this current growth rate could continue until January, allowing us to reach $4000? According to my chart, this would happen around Dec 29.

I have a hunch that we will see a crash like in April which left us at an order of magnitude higher than where it started( starting roughly at $10 reaching 250 or so and crashing to $50 then leveling out around $100.) If this current trend follows the same pattern, we might see prices as high as $2500 before correcting to the $1000 level which is an order of magnitude higher than where we started in october.

Since we didn't see an April like correction at the $1000 level, I think there is enough interest in the market to support $1000 bitcoins, but my gut tells me $2000+ is to high when one considers more long term rates of growth.

Right now i think i might set a sell order around $1900(Although that seems a little greedy) and try to buy back in at $750. Price might go lower but i think that would be a fair price when one considers long term growth.

I feel like there's more to say but I'm curious what others think.

I've pretty familiar with the forex market. its how i learned about technical/ fundamental analysis and such. I know stock markets can see bubbles and everything. but in the bitcoin market i see bubbles inside of bubble inside of bubbles.

now im just thinking that the price movement is just based on the expectation of future gain, which will be driven by new investors seeking the same.

to be honest i dont think btc will ever see widespread use. but i think it will still see phenomenal growth because people will have the idea that it has value. its kind of a weird idea, but not much different than assigning value to paper currency. depending on how you look at it a dollar is still a piece paper, but it has use as a medium of exchange. people try to argue that btc is too, but the use of bitcoin as a medium of exchange in the past month has not increased(if it even has at all!) in the same proportion as its price. new money is feeding this growth pure and simple. those who get in at the bottom profit from those who buy in after. This is why it seems like a scheme. It might not have been an intended consequence, but it is something to consider.

It just seems so strange to buy this weird intangible thing(BTC) whose current value is based on the possibility of gain rather than its actual use.

supply and demand people. the supply of bitcoin is increasing slower than the demand for it. as for what drives all this new demand i would say its the prospect of it increasing in value. the only reason it is so high in value at the moment is because more people keep buying it which increases its value causing more people to buy ad infinitum. this is why we get these patterns of exponential growth. with btc being in the media lately demand has greatly increased. For those who think bitcoins use as a medium of exchange is driving price, i think thy are mistaken. the demand for that use just isn't that great. i think the growth we see is kind of a self fulfilling prophesy. everybody is buying because they expect price to go up, they only profit if more people buy as well. it wouldn't surprise me if btc turned into some kind of pyramid scheme, not because it was designed to be one, but because it could be exploited and turned into one. Although, i guess you would have to consider it a decentralized pyramid scheme. as i think the market is controlled by our collective fear and greed, and not any individual or small group.

its funny, i dont think btc will ever see mass adoption, but i think it will grow in value just because people will continue to decide it has more and more value, because the numbers keep going up and going up fast. I buy bitcoin to get in before the bubbles and to get out before the pop. i profit on others loss. I chase those exponential curves. so speaking individually greed drives my demand, and i think its the same for most recent adopters.

well see 1k on nov 25. does this break rule 5?

ok i can accept bitcoin isnat a ponzi scheme but, it still seems vulnerable to market manipulation by large owners

investment with promise of high return paid for by investors below fueled by new money etc. not exactly btc but similar

oh yea and another reason i think something is off is due to no one knowing who the creator of the bitcoin is. if bitcoin is determined to be a ponzi scheme it would be good to remain unknown....... i feel really dumb for saying all of this, i don't really think all of this im just exploring ideas.

not sure if this should go here

Something seems really odd to me. So I wasn't in bitcoin during the April crash, but i heard that it was largely due to a ddos attack on mtgox. i bought a few bitcoin around $315 a week or two ago and have been watching the price etc. Now, when the price spiked to the $800+ area the exchanges started lagging or going down for periods of time. Maybe due to ddos attacks. But what seams strange to me is that the level we've been brought down to put us back in line with the exponential growth curve that started on Oct 13. So I guess my thinking is that big players are manipulating the market to fall in line with the exponential growth, shutting down the exchanges when growth becomes too strong or fast. It took a few days for the April crash to reach a bottom. As of right now the price is about 450-500 with no determinable bottom, whether or not this is a more long term correction or part of a mini bubble i don't know. The last two big crashes left us with a price an order of magnitude higher each time, so that leads me to believe that we still have some upward movement left which we will crash from and level out at about $1000.

I guess where my craziness creeps in is me thinking that these exponential growth patterns seem unnatural coinciding with exchange blackouts leading me to believe that there are people behind it. Am i crazy? is this kind of manipulation theoretically possible? Are these patterns possible as natural price movements? Is it possible to manipulate exponential growth to sustain it longer? If there are people manipulating the market and you read this could you give me a heads up on target prices  . I've read rumors that bitcoin is a big ponzi scheme.

I'm not usually one to believe in conspiracies, but something seems off with these price movements. then again i only took a semester of calc and i'm not to familiar with patterns of exponential growth. so Im probably wrong.   

just messing around with charts. looks like we're just getting started. btc to $2000. who else is with me

http://www.mql5.com/en/charts/1051215/btcusd-h4-distel-enterprise

is btc-e under DDos attack?

here's my view on the price. the first bubble from 4/11-6/11 we went from btc less than $1 to over $30 a 30x increase
the next bubble in 4/12 we saw btc go from $10 to over $250 a 25x increase
this bubble started at $100 and is now at $500 only 5x increase. i think we could see $2000 in few weeks which would be a 20x increase. it would crash down and settle back around $1000 for a while before the next exponential movement which would bring us to another order of magnitude higher to 10K... only in dreams though

if the media puts more news stories about bitcoins price increase, with the added hype of the senate hearing, we might see another two weeks of gains. the first week would be from the hype itself, the next from people who had to wait to transfer money to an exchange. so i dont think its going down just yet. it wouldn't surprise me if we hit 1k. but im a dreamer..

It wouldn't surprise me if they try create a slander campaign and bait the media. Thats all we need is the media saying bitcoin is associated with child pornography. seems to me the feds are playing dirty as usual on this one

i wish i knew more about bitcoins demographic, and who is capable in moving the market the most. I've dabbled in the forex market, and learned that the big financial institutions are the major market movers.not the average trader. So i wonder if the early bitcoin adopters have the most power as they probably have the most btc. I wonder who the average speculator is. I wonder how many wallstreet types are invested in bitcoin, if any are in the first place. Because that is what i think is key to large growth. and that kind of investor wont give a damn about bitcoins regulation and might even be more comfortable with a more regulated crypto. once/if wallstreet types start to buy up most of the crypto we should see really good growth

i am fairly confident the govt wont outlaw btc outright. They might introduce new regulation, but we've already seen this as exchanges now have KYC-AML  policies. i think this hearing is just talk for now. besides it would probably take a few years to write new legislation and have it go into effect.

if thats the case say goodbye to exponential growth. we'd see no new money and have people leave altogether. I would. The main reason i like bitcoin is due to its growth potential. Its cool it can be used to buy drugs anonymously(kind of) and it could still retain that use, but the demand for it would plummet and as a basic economic principle price would follow