Pain...

The dips just keep dipping. I think we’re closer to the bottom than the top here. Another 10% maybe but then I’ll think we’ll stabilize in preparation for the next move up. I don’t think we’ve seen this year’s high yet, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see new highs until the fourth quarter. This summer is going to test the holders.

Well, if people buy NFT's, they will buy paper with scribbles on it.    Still not as bad as buying a Pizza for 10.000 BTC, if you ask me.

it's an accident that can happen to any institution and it's just good to know that no one lost his life in the process of the incident.

This is part of the issue decentralized systems helps us avoid cause if an incident as this happens in my region and an institution like my countries central Bank gets aflaimed, you will be amazed at th Le quantity of asset that's going to be seen to have gone in the process.

Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase and a known Bitcoin skeptic, remains unconvinced of the asset’s merits.

Speaking at the Australian Financial Review business summit in Sydney via video link, Dimon expressed his reservations about the asset amidst broader discussions on topics ranging from upcoming elections to federal economic policies.

During the call, Dimon criticized Bitcoin, particularly focusing on its volatility and the potential for its use in illegal activities, including money laundering and fraud.

He suggested that the rapid increase in Bitcoin's value might indicate a speculative bubble, cautioning investors about the risks involved.

Despite his criticisms, Dimon stated that he would defend the right of individuals to purchase Bitcoin, likening it to personal choices such as smoking cigarettes.

"I defend your right to smoke a cigarette, [and] I’ll defend your right to buy a Bitcoin."  Said by Dimon......

    ~You see no matter how they want to criticise bitcoin thesame mouth will still defend I will only say that Dimon is totally confused right here ~
 

Bitcoin still remains the king and aways become the kings of all coins

https://www.btctimes.com/news/jpmorgan-chase-ceo-says-he-will-defend-peoples-right-to-buy-bitcoin

I reckon Binance is printing a shitload of paper bitcoin to push the prices down, and perhaps offloading their own customers coins. My guess is that Binance will be the next FTX after this run peaks. IMO exchanges want shitcoins to flourish, so they do their best to keep a lid on BTC so as it doesn't attract as much attention.

$2 short of $70k...

FFS, Bitcoin! Give us what we want!

So what are people's thoughts? Ironically, despite still expecting an inevitable correction (what goes up must come down before going back up again), today's bearish candle I don't find very concerning. For one, it's the first sell candle in weeks, since the move from $40K, so isn't exactly conclusive of "the top's in" mentality. For now, it's an orderly corrective candle, with further potential upside. Just look back at October 2021 with ATH making. Firstly there was a new ATH followed by an immediate strong bearish doji selling candle on the Weekly, that was followed by another 3 weeks of upside to make another slightly higher ATH. So now that the ATH has been pierced, I think it's more likely to be re-tested and broken again, rather than the correcting starting from here. That said...

My thought on re-testing $30K haven't changed much, especially the more parabolic the price has gone. I'm closer to thinking a low could be around $35K rather than $30K, as now a BULLISH macro retracement would be around $36K (0.382 fib retracement from low to high), as opposed to the more bearish full retracement back down to $28K. Felt the need to capitalise there, to specify that one price level would be bullish, the other would be borderline bearish, but otherwise neutral. Ie, starting an uptrend again from scratch type level, but also not conclusive of being bearish, even if it'd "feel" very bearish to many.

Overall, I see the parabolic from from $40K to ~$70K as complete over-leveraged puff and newbie FOMO from ETFs. Of course the ETFs are "good" (look at the price!), but many of these investors have no idea experience of Bitcoin's volatility that isn't one directional. If we are to go below the ETF opening price of $48K, I think there will be a lot "jumping ship" from more conservative investors, rather than further speculation. Bare in mind these TradFi clowns aren't used to a -30% correction in a matter of days or weeks, and they'd typically see it as extremely bearish, even though $48K level would be the support level for continued bullish momentum. This, fundamentally more than anything, is why I don't trust the current rally above $50K. It's based on hopes and dreamss, not reality imo, and relying on newbies to have strong hands.

So I am sitll a bit torn over the "considerable correction" theory, as it may just be a re-test of $50K level and stablise from there (again this would be IMMEDIATELY BULLISH not bearish). My other concern is surrounding the halving... ironically. With price so high, so is the average mining cost, around $50K at the moment. At this rate, there will be the inevitable "miner capitulation" (reduction in mining power) with average price immediately spiking to $100K. I think we've generally averted the uber bearish miner selling scenario, because with price so high and rewards about to drop in half, miners are able to sell at a reasonable price to cover costs (especially those who will need to switch off machines in the coming months, until a more favourable mining cost is available, with the reduction of difficulty etc). Naturally the longer-term effects will be bullish, like we've seen every halving, but in reality the immediate effects are never bullish, but more of a stabilising effect for price (at best...)

More to the point, every halving there is at least one significant drop of mining power, due to reduced rewards, usually a few instances depending on where price has come from, which often leads to either decrease in price or otherwise sideways stability, as difficulty drops and the network has to "re-calibrate" the change (see 2020 and 2016). So I'm not expecting much different here, unlike a lot of other speculative theories knocking around, from $100K within X amount of days or my estimation of dropping to around $30K; the halving is never "priced in", as the effects of reduced mining rewards only takes effect once the rewards are actually halved. Not forgetting that it takes some time, usually a few months, for the supply to "dry up", if the demand and supply remains the same. Obviously if the demand remains high, like with the ETFs, the effects of the halving could be more immediate than usual, but only time will tell.

Overall, just like $48K was the "treshold" for me to no longer consider the move from $15.5K as a 2019-style dead cat bounce, it will also be the level for me to consider the immediate uptrend to be over if we break below, especially now this is the opening ETF price effectively. Probably others would lower to this $44K (Weekly closing highs) or even $40K, but personally I think below $48K it could well be too late to directly change the course of events. It's specifically were TradFi investors will enevitably turn into nervous nellies, if price is approaching their entry points. Bare in mind most of the investors are no different than Bitcoin speculators, and the first correction each of these speculators experiences is typified by fear, uncertainty, and doubt; thus leads to a lot of panic selling. So I'm certainly not putting my faith into these newbies to be strong hands if price corrects beyond what they feel comfortable with. Obviously any "smart Bitcoin investor" would simply increase position if price dropped further, for example buying $40K if you're average was $50K, etc, but these Bitcoin ETF newbies won't be smart in my opinion, they are still complete newbies to the Bitcoin market, and more importantly prefer to buy strength than weakness.

Also, as just a mere reality check of Bitcoin pyschology here, since when did complete noobs get to throw money at Bitcoin near an ATH and get to ride a 50% move to the upside within a couple of months with zero conseuences? I don't believe these institutional investors are any smarter than Bitcoiners in my opinon, and if anything, when push comes to shove, they will have much weaker hands. They want Bitcoin because of price appreciation and as a store of value. If that store of value is to the downside, I'm certain they won't be interested until it presents itself as a store of value / price appreciation asset again.

PS - I'm not salty that I sold at $48K either, I still hold the majority of Bitcoin, just simply have a decent amount of "dry powder" for a correction (for probably the first time ever). If I didn't sell $48K to the upside, I'd be selling it to the downside, and looking at price as I type, I think that downside may already be sooner than we think. Also if not obvious, I'm happy to ride a 250% move over a year during a recovery stage, I don't care about the final 50% parabolic move to the upside, I'll leave that to the degenerative gamblers to take advantage of, or get rekt by.

I'm not leaving....

Hi Boys 

Boys?

Why is it so quiet in these here parts???

What?

Bitcoin Funeral?!

again?   

Oh boy... 

A double top has formed it will possible lead to a mega dump ore pumping straight to $70.000+.

Everything is possible. Imagine Apple panic-buying... 

There is a very good explanation in this long twitter thread:
https://twitter.com/teddyfuse/status/1763577899506921632

Haha. Mine are all showing zero.

(I only have dust on there....)

$59k that was fast...

Market Cap BTC Dominance, 54.30% (tradingview)

After a long day, just woke the PC up to check things out.

Man, that green dildo is long!

Just now: $50k!

YES!

Bitcoin ETF's are launched month ago and there impact is yet to be seen on Bitcoin price. Though I am one of those who don't think ETF's are related to Bitcoin concept of decentralization.

Next we have halving coming up and right now we are standing at 48k$. It will be interesting to see at what price we hit the halving date. This halving will be different in a sense that there are lot of people waiting for this event. 100k$ is guaranteed after this halving. DYOR