Short answer: no.

Long answer: World economic growth is caused by reduction of cost and discovery of resources. Endless growth is completely possible, but at a certain point that growth becomes so small it's statistically 0. That point is where we are teleporting and instantly communicating, in a disease-free utopia where everyone lives forever. No further transaction needs to take place beyond that point, and no additional transaction would grow the economy. Bitcoin's transaction ability alone has the potential to greatly improve economic growth by reducing the cost that the entire currency industry incurs to keep running.

Now, individual country's wealth is a completely different story, since there are always more resources on the other side of the fence, unlike the earth, which has to eventually extent to another planet to discover more.

Do you realize that even a heavily correlated (R^2 > 99.5) line would have no predictive power on the coin, right? And even then, it would predict endless exponential growth, which is silly. I explained how the line was drawn, do you think the method is wrong?

Bitcoin price is a function of deflating circulation and a normal (or poisson) probability-distributed adoption curve. Each bubble's price ceiling and floor is determined by available pool of current, new, and old adopters, and their relative (stochastic) movements, meaning as time goes on, the relative price ceiling of each bubble will drop, and the relative price floor will drop as well.

https://twitter.com/EuclidPredicts/status/418267818660884480/photo/1

What say you?

Don't worry about it. The fact remains that green pieces of paper remain mankind's best alternative to violent intent.

Economics is the mathematical mapping of intent. It has nothing to do with money, exclusively. It quantifies that which can be theoretically counted, but no methods exist of yet to count it.

Everything in the field after that is showmanship, like a hobbyist in rocketry trying to impress a crowd more than a particle physicist.

http://site.iugaza.edu.ps/wdaya/files/2013/03/A-Random-Walk-Down-Wall-Street.pdf

Don't speculate. Email our group after you read that.

Go back to the graphs. The price will increase a lot, sure, in 2014, but the potential trading gains are going to fall. The 'world economies going to shit' (surprise: they're not!) would only aggravate the problem, not aid in, because of this phenomenon. You have to remember that prices are not arbitrarily set, and while demand is often influenced by real world events, on aggregate people are relatively predictable.

Trading potential will greatly diminish, and the possibility of 100%-1000% returns, which were all over 2013, in a year is going to decrease throughout 2014 due to the decreased marginal adopters, and the high level of existing adopters. Good thing if you made a billion dollars in 2013, but for anyone who is still seeking more money, new methods need to be developed to deal with the changeover in the two marginal rates, or those gains aren't going to be seen anymore.

Like others have said, buy BTC, nest it through LTC, XPM, etc, and then close spreads (market making) to get 10% per trade, 1 trade every 2-3 hours (if you're paying attention) then multiply 5% for each nesting level. If you know what you're doing, you can quant trade altcoins short-term and get 30% per day pretty easily.

With $5000 you might incur slippage, especially on heavily divided currencies, so you could diversify and just run 5 $1000 campaigns.

Euclid is a group of day traders and economic analysts in the Bitcoin community, working out of one of the top Econ schools (top 0.1% ranking) in the country. This year, Euclid’s attention shifted from Forex to Bitcoin. If you haven’t heard of us before, that means we’re doing our job right. Our goal is to make the highest gains possible, as short as possible, with the minimal impact or notice on the long-term market. In Forex, this was easy, our trades were a drop in the ocean. This year, however, our actions can be seen dotted along the altcoin markets like breadcrumbs, if you know where to look. It’s been a great year, but we need to adapt, and adapt quickly, to continue making our gains.

So, Euclid is going public with a network of altcoin traders.

It’s the twilight of 2013, and with it, the beginning of the best year of Bitcoin. It is also the beginning of the worst year of Bitcoin. Allow me to explain:

The price of Bitcoin, or any currency, is ultimately determined by two factors: Marginal supply and Marginal demand. Bitcoin’s uniquely controlled supply, means that its price is almost entirely the subject of demand. In the case of cryptocurrencies, that demand is in the form of an adoption cycle, ranging from 0 to 100% of total adoption. Contrary to popular belief (http://www.x-btc.com/1/post/2013/11/bitcoin-is-not-surging-going-ballistic-or-going-on-an-astronomical-tear.html) adoption curves are not exponential. They are cumulative normal distributions, a pattern found throughout all of nature. It probability mass is known as the Gaussian distribution, or the Bell Curve. It measures from 0% of Bitcoin adopters to 100%, and more importantly, gives the cumulative probability of the next new bitcoin adopter in the next time period.

We have two predictions for the probability distribution of these curves. The formula:

1/(standev*SQRT(π*2))*e^-(((day#-mean)^2)/2*standev^2)

We’ve derived two curves from the data, one with and one without bubbles. The first curve has a mean of day 2100, with a standard deviation of .003. The second curve, which is what we predict emerging altcoins and pump and dump schemes are moving the price to, has a mean of 2300 days and a standard deviation of .002. Below is a chart of the two curves. The scale on the left is in % of the price as of Dec. 27th 2013. The scale on the bottom is the day since Bitcon’s creation.

http://s27.postimg.org/nnhi1sldv/probability_curves.png

Why is its growth stunted? 2013 is the first year when the marginal supply will be constrained significantly (https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply), as we have breached the 50% threshold for the mining of all coins. This will make a huge impact on the success of pump and dump schemes, which will (and already have) net lower and lower gains over the year. If frequency continues, they will put a cap on the maximum price and pull the minimum price floor lower and lower. As you can see by tge chart, we predict that the bitcoin price, between now and 2017, can be doubled over its potential by just controlling the availability of altcoins and the frequency of pump and dumps. This means any gains between now and then will be doubled as well.

A pump and dump scheme increases the marginal adoption rate, shifting the entire cumulative curve closer to the current timeline. Or, in other words, a pump and dump scheme that doesn’t drop the currency below the normal price before the scheme has increased the number of adopters. This is detrimental to the long-term price, and lengthens (by the same % of value generated from new adopters) the time to the max value. This is dangerous, since it allows outside environmental factors more time to affect the market before peak market capitalization is reached.

To put it simply: Pump and dump schemes and other crypto coins are lengthening the time it takes for Bitcoin and other, stronger currencies to reach their max value. This gives the government a longer timeline before they can regulate. Euclid deems these two factors the greatest threat to the survivability of BTC.

A new solution to value creation is needed.

Currency is merely a storage of value, and value is merely a term for purchasing power. It doesn’t matter if you are trading Bitcoins, Dogecoin, Bananas, sunglasses, or green pieces of paper. Crypto currencies are no different, and they all follow simple rules.

In the wake of a few events this last year (Fontas pulling out of Pump schemes, the China affair, Fincen reports and the altcoin explosion), we’re planning to take a more active role in the market and try to maintain the greatest aggregate profit from the market, and curb the potential long-term damage to Bitcoin.  In light of recent events, we think it’s necessary to take a more general, active role in strengthening the currency.

Pump and dump schemes are, frankly, unsophisticated and crude. Nested investments, controlling supply and demand on aggregate, and drawing mass value is the celestial machine. It’s not about getting singular, large gains, but by multiplying gains repeatedly in exceedingly short periods of time. If successful, to those involved we will offer technical analysis, quant trading programs, and most importantly, loss mitigation. This means if you lose money on a campaign, we will pay you directly to cover your losses.

Euclid wants to build a network of volume market-makers to make some adjustments to various Altcoin markets over the course of this year, and that will require more volume than our group has, so we’re opening the doors to potential gains to people who are capable of holding or moving currency when necessary. There’s an increasing number of people interested in more stable, long-term cryptocurrency investment, so we believe there’s a definite need for this type of control. We want to offer accurate technical analysis, careful planning, and brilliant execution to the Crypto currency markets, something that is has lacked since the beginning, and for a short while, we’re opening doors to the best and brightest of the crypto community to work with us.

Euclid_predicts@null.net, and https://twitter.com/EuclidPredicts if you’re interested. We are not asking for money. We don’t want your wallet address, or even your name, in fact, we’re better off not knowing anything about you. All we want is a group of close, trusted, intelligent traders to work together and share academic knowledge with.

Money flows to the most intelligent. They stay ahead of the curve, they know when a scam exists, and they protect eachother.

Here’s to the best year of Bitcoin, and the worst year of Bitcoin.

-   Max Cohen, Euclid