For 5 min data, a few years worth of data is all you need.

They'll be so many 5 min candles that you'll have a decent sample size for analysis.

I have 1-hour and daily price data for many cryptos (from barchart) but no 5 min data.

Forex is much more efficent and central to the economy, as currencies require a stable price (imagine a 20% decline in EUR/USD - would cause mayhem lol! ). This means significantly less volatility and profit potentail (hence why brokers provide leverage). The stablility and size of forex does hold certain advantages over the wild west of crypto, even if the markets have calmed down somewhat in recent years.

Here's the first Data-Drop Guys....[/center]






What Does The Data Show?[/center]


Key:

Higher High = HH
Higher Low = HL
Lower High = LH
Lower Low = LL

(I promise this won't get too confusing

The tabels above show the probability of 1-hour candlesticks creating new
HH/HL (bullish candles) or LL/LH (bearish candles) compared to the previous 1-hour candles own highs
and lows.


Specifically, the data shows:[/b]

•   The number of times a HH/HL & LL/LH occurred on every 1-hour candle (from 2017 - 2023)
•   The frequency of candles with HH/LL occurrences relative to the total number of bullish and bearish candlesticks.
•   The probability of a high/low forming, calculated as a percentage of the total bullish or bearish hours, respectively.


Key Takeaways:

1) ALL 1-Hour BULL candles = 71.71% chance of LOW forming higher than the previous candle low.
2) ALL 1-Hour BEAR candle = 70.51% chance of HIGH forming Lower than the previous candles high.

Use these probabilities to help set stop loss orders!

Say you see swift rise on the 1-hour timeframe (or lower) and decide to buy to capture the momentum.
Rather than place a large stop using technical analysis (which is very subjective), you can place the stop
a few pips under the previous hours low and then trail it up whenever a new hour begins!

All bullish 1-hour candles hold a 71.71% chance of forming a LOW higher than the
previous hours low – whether it closed bullish or bearish!

Why this works:

•   Data shows 71.71% of bullish 1-hour candles form a low higher than the previous hour's low.
•   This means your stop has a high probability of staying untouched, even if there's a minor pullback.

And don't forget: ALL losses are reduced compared to using standard TA levels (S&R/FIBS/MA's Etc)!

Your stop sits closer to the current price action, reducing risk and improving profit
taking (if you decide to trail the stop!)


I'll get some more stuff up in the coming days...

Ask me if ya need help!

Greetings everyone!

I'm starting this thread to share some insights into how I trade crypto using statistics and probabilities. It's a data-driven approach I've found to be really effective and removes much of the subjectivity that comes with technical analysis.

I'm hoping it can help some of you too!

Here’s what I’ll be sharing over the next few days weeks:

•   How to set stops using the historical Open – Low/Open – High Range.
•   How to take profits using the historical Open – High (Bull Days) Open – Low (Bear Days).
•   How to fade consecutive streaks of days/hour (with frequency & probability tables).
•   The probability price will rise or fall X number of Pips on bullish/bearish days (Table).
•   Whether large % rises & declines are more/less likely to result in further rises/declines.
•   Pin Bar probabilities.

I'm happy to verify any data and probabilities – I have over 10GB of files (not all crypto-related) to share via chat or email.

I'll also be uploading some additional data to debunk certain technical analysis concepts, so we know for sure what does/doesn't work.


Expect more data, images, and tables in the coming days/weeks.

Feel free to ask any questions or leave comments!

Cheers,

Max.


READ ME (Will Update Over Time!)


NOTE: Any time you hear "Occurences", that's the number of times the something happend (or occurred) in the data. Higher occurences make the statistics and probabilities more accurate, however, a low number of occurrences can still indicates a rare event, which can be exploited for informatiion and profits (like consecutive daily/hourly streaks!).

Just a quick reminder, in case anyone wasn't 100% sure.

I'd recommend one of the 3 strategies listed in the post below. They're meant to be used on forex, but they work just the same on Crypto. The second one, "pin bar reversal" is probably the best, as that gets you into trades right before big reversals begin and is compatible with day trading and swing trading. The others work well too, but they're more focused on long term trades, so are a better fit if you want to take a more passive, long term approach to trading.

https://forexstrategiesthatwork.com/the-3-best-forex-trading-strategies-and-how-to-trade-them/

Just my two cents.

Hey guys, Liam here.

I was wondering if anyone would be interested in becoming an affiliate or collaborating with me on my site? As most of you know, trading and investing in cryptocurrencies has taken off in recent years. To help people get started and become better traders/investors, I've created a site with guides, strategies, tips, and lessons all about trading and investing.

Here's the link:

http://cryptotradingschoolonline.com/

The site is about 6 months old. It's got around 40 posts on it, 15 of which are in a members section that people can pay to get access to.

If anyone is interested or has any ideas on how to get visitors, shoot me a PM or email me at liamcrypto123@hotmail.com

They can, but it's best to wait for them to form on the 1 hour - if you're trading the 1 hour that is. Even though big candles will often form on the lower time-frames before a reversal, because they're not made up of as much data - like a 15 min candle only shows 15 mins worth of data... or opinion is probably a better way to put it - they don't have a high probability of being successful, so it's best not to trade them and wait for big candles to form on the hourly instead.

Here's today's update...

Hey go ahead, man. I don't mind if you use it, that's why I put it out there lol. Let me know if you need any help with it.


Bitcoin Update...

Sorry guys, I've been away for the last few days so haven't had chance to post.

Thanks for all your comments, let me know if you have any questions about anything.

Here's today's analysis...

Thanks for the comments, guys. Hope you have a profitable month.


Yes, check out my buy area sell area strategy guide. The theory behind the strategy in terms of how and why it works is a bit complex, but so long as you have a basic understanding of it you should be able to use it fine. Plus this thread will give you an idea of what areas to look for anyway, so it won't be to tough to figure out.



Ahh, another Livermore devotee. Great trader wasn't he? I remember reading his book long ago and being amazed at some of the things he did. Like getting chucked out of the bucket shops because he could read the patterns in the order flow data aha... what a guy. Shame how he ended up though. All that amazing success and then suicide... such a waste.

So my understanding of game theory isn't really scientific in the sense that I'm not sitting around calculating what the chances are of different traders doing things and then how that'll affect the market. It's more I think about the different groups of traders/investors in the market, understand how they buy and sell (and what causes them to buy or sell), and then use that to determine where they've placed their trades/investment (the buy and sell areas) as well as have some sort of idea of when they're likely to do things in the future.

To give a quick example, I know the whales and other big traders (and us too actually) can only buy or sell when other traders are buying (if they want to sell) or selling (if they want to buy) - and that the more crypto they want to buy or sell the more traders they need to have selling or buying at the same time. With this fact, I know the whales CANNOT buy when the price is rising or sell when it's falling, as most people trade in the direction the price is moving in, therefore there's nobody there for them to buy or sell too.

So in order to find out where they've placed their trades to cause a rise or decline (and in the process a buy or sell area) I have to look for the last time the price was falling, in the case of them causing a rise, or the last time it was rising, in the case of them causing a decline, since that will have been the last time they were able to buy or sell, as per what I explained above.

That's one of the simple ways I use game theory, Luck. Sorry if it's a bit tough to understand, this stuff ain't easy to get... or explain for that matter. But that was just a quick example so you could get an idea of how I use it.

Thanks, Lucky. I trade pretty much all day long. I don't sit with my eyes glued to screen, though... well, sometimes I do, but it depends on what's going on. I'll usually just check the charts every 15 mins or so to see what the situation is and whether there's anything of interest. I do use volume from time, believe me, I know how useful it can be. However, it isn't necessary for how I trade which is why you never see it in the images.

The way I trade is probably 50% technical analysis, 30% order flow, and then 20% game theory. Technical analysis because I use charts and technical concepts like trendlines, S + R, Fibonacci etc, order flow because I understand how the market works behind the scenes in terms of how people buy and sell, and then game theory is basically understanding how other traders/investors make decisions and how those decisions impact the price - this is like the glue that gels everything above together.


I'm not willing to share account statements or things like that - you can easily backtest the areas to get a sense of what percentage profit they can make per month anyway. The site I haven't really made anything from. Since it's new only two or three people are coming per day, so it's going to take a while for it pick up steam.