Mining = pure speculation, while starting with a big fat loss
Holding Bitcoins = pure speculation, but you won't start with a loss

Mining can be an interesting hobby, but don't expect to get your initial costs back.

The only exception is, when you have the skills, knowledge and equipment to construct
and build your own, high efficient miners at low costs. You can sell them per pre-order
to collect money for your material costs and mine with them. Once your machines are
hardly profitable anymore, you can ship those preorders. THAT'S how you make money.

Maybe, maybe not.

How would it look like? Can you show us a statistical prove, that this kind of patterns works?
If the success rate isn't higher than 50%, you could do a coinflip instead.

Nobody knows.

Holding BTC (instead of spending them) is no "investment" at all. It's pure speculation.

Yes, there was some buying below $400. Still, those fakeouts are no prove for a trend reversal.

IMHO fakeouts are not even an indication for a possible change in trend direction. I'll change my opinion instantly, if you show me a statistical prove (backtests), that fakeouts indicate a trend reversal with an accuracy better than a coinflip (50%).

Sorry to say, but it proves nothing.

Mining profitability depends on 3 factors

#1 Bitcoin Price (down is bad)
#2 Difficulty (up is bad)
#3 Your electricity costs (up is bad)

You only can speculate about #1 and #2, while #3 is relative stable and predictable

because of the ongoing downtrend, the general interest in Bitcoins is approaching non-hyped levels
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bitcoin

If the price breaks below 400 (that's not for sure, but quite possible) it may stay there for some time. But chances are good, that it'll be pumped up again (big media attention, max keiser going crazy about bitcoins etc.). Nobody knows when the bottom is in and it may be a good idea, to cost average into bitcoins, when prices are low (now they are not low imho). And be warned, it's a big gamble, so don't bet your house

$550 by May the 4th is possible, but not very likely (imho)

There may be a turnaround at or below 200$.
So there's still enough space to the downside, imho.

It's no "investment". It's pure speculation.
We're still in a bear market and nobody knows, when it will end.
There's enough air to the downside in my opinion.

They have balls made of crystal. Especially those TA guys

Your argument is invalid. If BTC were at 50$, the BTC price of those gadgets would be 10x.

In my opinion, the propability of a turnaround is below 50%.
Also 500$ for some digital data is way overpriced in my eyes.

Words of power

Never say never, there can always come a surprise.

Once their position turns deep into red, they all become "long term investors".
Later, they desperately sell their position near the price bottom. It's magic.