There is no point from which Bitcoin cannot recover. No matter what levels it falls to, there is the possibility that there will be a bull run in the future. That doesn't mean that it will reach an all time high again, but there is always the possibility of a bull run, and significant increases in value.

Compared to historical values, $3000 is still 'glory days'.

The more people buy in at lower levels, such as in the 3000s, then the more we're likely to see sell-offs at even quite modest (compared to the ATH) peaks such as the 6000s. As people who buy now can earn a significant chunk of profit selling at those levels, and may decide to do so if they believe the chance of returning to the 3000s is higher than going higher.

There are purchases of BTC all the time, and every time a transaction happens the more we have people who have bought in at current levels, and will base their investment decisions on the price that they paid.

I predict that 99.9% of predictions for the price of Bitcoin will be wrong, but that there will be no way to identify the 0.1% of predictions that are actually correct.

Possibly people who believe that if they hold, that they'll find themselves in an even worse time to sell crypto.

People who sold off at US$7000 have been proved right in hindsight. If in six months the price is $3000 or less then those who are selling now will have been proved right.

Blockchain isn't going anywhere. It's a fundamental technology and will continue to be developed and refined.

Whether individual coins will continue or fail and be replaced is another question.

Speaking as someone with a computer science background, I think that computer scientists are interested in blockchain technology. The technology itself is good, and won't be going anywhere. However, again from a comp.sci background, I think that blockchain and digital currencies have been over-hyped, over-valued in the market, and in my opinion used for scams (Bitconnect as an example.) This has tarnished the technology by association, and I do notice people in the community distancing themselves from named coins such as Bitcoins, often being at pains to distance themselves from Bitcoin lest they be lumped together with things that the would rather not.

So, I don't think it's a lack of a description of what blockchain technology is that is the problem. People in comp.sci understand the technology. It's the tarnishing of the reputation that is a bigger problem. As I view it.

I'm a big fan of digital currency technology. But, when I read posts on Bitcointalk, too often they are just people predicting huge price rises 'moon' or values dropping to zero 'gloom' with no cogent argument for either type of prediction. That's really painful to see.

Maybe it will, maybe it won't.

Perhaps one of the reasons that people are selling to cut their losses is because we've had an entire year of people predicting that bitcoin will massively increase in value before the end of June, before the end of July, before the end of August, and so on. These predictions have all been proved to be wrong. Why should anyone think that any of these predictions of bitcoin regaining value are likely to be reliable.

I and others who have said the same thing have been completely ignored. But, if you (meaning the bitcoin community) keep on making these predictions which are proved wrong time after time, then it's no wonder that large numbers of people are losing faith.

There were a lot of people who expected Bitcoin to moon again at the end of the year. As we get closer to the end of the year and it becomes more and more obvious that BTC isn't going to the moon, it's completely reasonable that people are losing faith and cutting their losses.

Quoted for truth.

In other threads, people are asking how we can get more women interested in Bitcoin, criticism of 'weak hands' etc.

What's giving Bitcoin a bad reputation are overblown predictions of a boom that are proved wrong, creating the impression that Bitcoin investors don't know what they are talking about. This will scare other people off.


People were telling us how cheap Bitcoin was at $10,000, and that we should 'fill our boots'. Those who bought in then have lost over half of their money.

So far, those who were pessimistic earlier in the year have been more accurate than those who predicted a quick recovery.

Earlier on in the year people were claiming that Bitcoin always goes down at this time of year, and that it would moon at the end of the year. We're nearing the end of the year, and where is the moon?

I predict that in a year's time, bitcoin will be worth about $6500.

The way things are going, in five years Bitcoin will still be worth about $6500.

How is news affecting the price of bitcoin? The price has been pretty much the same for ages, with even the ups and downs becoming quite small. Nothing much seems to be affecting it.

How can we say if the current Bitcoin price is cheap or expensive? It's cheaper than the peak, but how can it be decided whether it is still under- or over- valued?

I personally don't think the ETF drama resolving will stabilise the price of Bitcoin. It would only do so if the price of Bitcoin was due to fundamentals, rather than speculation.

In order to have a reasonably expectation of making money on crypto prices, you don't have to predict the crypto market with 100% accuracy. You'd only need to be able to predict the crypto market better than a sizeable number of other people can. E.g. when to get out.  So that there is someone prepared to buy your coins when you want to exit.

And, I'm not waiting until I can predict with 100% accuracy. I'm waiting until I believe that I have enough understanding of the market so that the chance of me 'winning' is high enough to make it a rational bet to buy.

I don't know why you say 'every trader'. As being able to make money in zero-sum markets, you need there to be a population of investors who don't really know what they are doing. There is plenty of evidence that there are such people in crypto.

Or there are people who don't believe that BTC will go incredibly high, so when it gets to $8000 or so, that it's the time to sell. Buying at $6000 and selling at $8000 is a big chunk of profit.


Bitcoin will be stable when people are buying and selling it at a value determined by fundamentals. When you have people buying and selling  for speculation, then it's guaranteed that the price will be unstable.

I don't think that's 'unfair'. That's what investment is all about.

I don't think it comes down to ETF. I think it comes down to whether or not there is a major bull run ('moon') in December. If there isn't, then I expect confidence in Bitcoin to reduce dramatically. The price might then reduce to closer to the fundamental value of Bitcoin, which I suspect is a lot less than what it is selling for now.


I'm not sure that anything like all of those who were avoiding losses are cashing out. I think there is a significant population of hodlers, even among those who bought in at a higher value and are currently in the red.

Even if people are invested, they often can still buy more. The price is $6320 as I write. If it goes down to $5700, then I expect some of the people currently not buying to fill their boots even more. Also, not everyone may have bought coins yet. E.g. It's also quite possible that there are people who missed the previous low waiting for it to go lower, but will snap up at $5700 (as an example price) if it happens again. There are people who believe in both a December bull run but also that Bitcoin will fall much lower than $5000. Those people may not yet be invested, but still may do so at a higher level as December draws closer.


Sentiment is everything in a market such as Bitcoin. For there to be a sustained bull run, then prices need to start going up, but those who bought in at lower levels (including those holding now) to hold during the bull run to prevent the supply/demand ratio getting too high. Otherwise people will just dump as you say, as has happened in the recent blip we've had, and several similar blips during the year. So, belief in a extended bull run in December, which is certainly frequently expressed, can certainly influence whether any bull run at that time becomes a sustained bull run.

In your discussion, you seem to be assuming that there is only one type of investor - e.g. that everyone who believes in a December bull run will already be fully invested in Bitcoin. This is an over-simplification of the situation.

I think there is a significant amount of belief that there will be another massive bull run in December. So, until then, I don't believe that Bitcoin will fall significantly below $6000, nor stay under $6000 for any long period.

If there isn't a huge bull run in December, then I think that market sentiment will turn even further away from belief in Bitcoin and all bets will be off. However, I expect there to be some sort of bull run in December even if solely because people believe it will happen. However, if there is a bull run, then I expect a crash in January and into 2019.

I expect that any bull run in December won't go to $20,000, because people buying now will be aware of the boom-bust nature of the market, and some will wish to take profits. If it was me buying at $6000 then I'd be very happy to sell at $10,000 to take a sizeable profit. If too many people follow similar strategies, then this in itself could prevent the market matching the previous peak.

However, how do you spot a sustained bull run in real time. If you watch a bull run too long by the time you buy in it might be near the end, and therefore no less risky than buying at the start of a bull run.

Note that I make no claims of ability to accurately predict the future. I make predictions to see if my current beliefs about Bitcoin are correct or not. They haven't always been. E.g. I thought that Bitcoin would fall significantly below $5000, but it didn't.

Looking at the charts for the whole year, it did look as if the recent bull run could be the start of a sustained recovery. If you fit a line down from the December 2017 peak, then it did look as if the drop had finished, and it could start going up again. But, with the current fall, it looks like just another up/down bump on the graph. It just shows that simply looking at the graph isn't enough to predict price movements.

I'll predict that within the next month the price will go down to break $6000, and then go up to over $7000 again. I make these predictions only to see how my predictions come out. I want to have more accuracy in predicting the market before I commit my money.

And bitcoin is going back up again. My prediction is already wrong.