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To bring us back full-circle to the question which has relentlessly haunted this journal: should I systematically trade or buy and hold? Examine the chart below and then let's discuss.
http://www.thetradequest.com/bitcoin/TradeorHold.png
By all metrics, trading the crossover has outperformed buy and hold since the day the crash began. Trading has returned 134% and buy and hold has lost 37%. Traders experienced a 68% drawdown in value, investors watched 82% erode away.
Even though the metrics seem to say that trading has "worked" better than buy and hold, it's still pointless to make the comparison. After all, when you're asking a question of "what works", you by definition must select a timeframe to make a judgement. The last two months have been favorable for traders but the last 6 months have rewarded investors. No matter which side of the aisle you stand, investor or trader, you can find supporting figures for your viewpoint. There are only two ways to "settle" the debate: price instantly rises to $1,000,000 per coin and stays there forever or price slowly and indefinitely falls to $0.00. In the meantime, it will remain impossible to definitively state which mentality is "better".
This remains an ideological question. Are you "voting with your fiat" and supporting an idea, or are you here to earn a profit? It is my viewpoint that disciplined trading is the most logical method of approaching the markets. The purpose of this journal is to convey what it takes to profitably trade.
Goomboo is your graph implementing the fee's aplied by Mt. Gox or others when you do a transaction? I agree with you and your trading system but seeing you can lose 1.2% just by Buying/selling/buying at the same price make me a bit suspicious. Not about the trading method but about the profit you expose http://www.thetradequest.com/bitcoin/TradeorHold.png
By all metrics, trading the crossover has outperformed buy and hold since the day the crash began. Trading has returned 134% and buy and hold has lost 37%. Traders experienced a 68% drawdown in value, investors watched 82% erode away.
Even though the metrics seem to say that trading has "worked" better than buy and hold, it's still pointless to make the comparison. After all, when you're asking a question of "what works", you by definition must select a timeframe to make a judgement. The last two months have been favorable for traders but the last 6 months have rewarded investors. No matter which side of the aisle you stand, investor or trader, you can find supporting figures for your viewpoint. There are only two ways to "settle" the debate: price instantly rises to $1,000,000 per coin and stays there forever or price slowly and indefinitely falls to $0.00. In the meantime, it will remain impossible to definitively state which mentality is "better".
This remains an ideological question. Are you "voting with your fiat" and supporting an idea, or are you here to earn a profit? It is my viewpoint that disciplined trading is the most logical method of approaching the markets. The purpose of this journal is to convey what it takes to profitably trade.
What I lack in the bot.:
I want to specify a purchase price and a sell price. a minimum
In trend: do not buy above that price. Or: do not sell below this price
I want to define a sideways movement. (eg 119 -123) in the sideways movement is to be bought or sold anything.
Or show me a popup with "sell?" "buye?"
Limiting the amount of money (USD Other)
Note the existing orders. It should always be money or btc for this.
Or just the next step
Pop for a High / Low. Period input field
But good work: so far I do not let it run automatically. My hand orders are even better. I mean. If the price is high, is a feeling and i take all what i know ... news, FED EZB. A low price is the feeling, have btc a change or not.
I want to specify a purchase price and a sell price. a minimum
In trend: do not buy above that price. Or: do not sell below this price
I want to define a sideways movement. (eg 119 -123) in the sideways movement is to be bought or sold anything.
Or show me a popup with "sell?" "buye?"
Limiting the amount of money (USD Other)
Note the existing orders. It should always be money or btc for this.
Or just the next step
Pop for a High / Low. Period input field
But good work: so far I do not let it run automatically. My hand orders are even better. I mean. If the price is high, is a feeling and i take all what i know ... news, FED EZB. A low price is the feeling, have btc a change or not.
Wrong topic I guess?^^
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
It looks like an attempt to sell just to make Bitcoin prices lower.
I wonder why they did not just do that. At one point it cost only around 200 BTC to break 115.
Not enough volume at this point?
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker - Hardcore
Nothing's impossible. Bitcoin could be trading for $10, $50, $100 or even higher over the next few months.
That's wrong. Everything's impossible, except the one and only possible past and future. There is only one world. Possibilities are existing in our brains only.
With so much investment into Bitcoin recently, I seriously doubt it will crash.
What investment?
Any proofs , besides what people say? Actual numbers?
There was a major scandal in the oil industry about African Petroleum , they didn't find any oil but reported a huge find , just to raise their stocks and sell them away?
Why could it be different in the bitcoin world? People fail to raise the funds for their project , but go blabering around to keep the price up while they sell.
Look at this graph?
Does this look like a growing economy?
http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?daysAverageString=7
Hi everyone, to my mind the more volatility we have on the bitcoin/USD price the more trading volume we get. And a high trading volume implies new investors / money to make and spreading information about bitcoin. I've heard talking about bitcoin when the price raised 240$~~ in april.
I'm currently holding my USDs waiting to make some return on my investment
Ok for the multiple timeframe analysis 
and if something like this happen what should I do? (using this method)
higher time frame say "hold" and primary trend say "sell", I think it's sell.
edit:
I mean what information the longer time frame give? The trend of the market? That's what I suppose.
and if something like this happen what should I do? (using this method)higher time frame say "hold" and primary trend say "sell", I think it's sell.
edit:
I mean what information the longer time frame give? The trend of the market? That's what I suppose.
Yeah, in that situation, you'd exit your position if you were relying on multiple timeframes.
The longer timeframe tells you which direction you should be trading. The shorter timeframe tells you when you should be trading.
My personal opinion is that multiple timeframes tends to confuse things, so I prefer to stick with analyzing a single timeframe. If you're able to use it to your advantage, then by all means, test and trade!
Alright
thank you for all this advises I'll test it and validate. It confuses a bit but if you're just looking at the direction of the highest one it's not that confusing Thank you anyway for all this good tips you give and all this explications!
Ok for the multiple timeframe analysis and if something like this happen what should I do? (using this method)
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=5&i=6-hour&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=10&a2=EMA&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=2&i=Hourly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=10&a2=EMA&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
higher time frame say "hold" and primary trend say "sell", I think it's sell.
edit:
I mean what information the longer time frame give? The trend of the market? That's what I suppose.
and if something like this happen what should I do? (using this method)http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=5&i=6-hour&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=10&a2=EMA&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=2&i=Hourly&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=EMA&m1=10&a2=EMA&m2=21&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
higher time frame say "hold" and primary trend say "sell", I think it's sell.
edit:
I mean what information the longer time frame give? The trend of the market? That's what I suppose.
Throughout my life, I have found that the true masters of fields are those who are able to express advanced concepts in terms that the common person can understand. Trading is no different. Without fail, the most successful traders I have met have been those who are able to take their decades of experience and logically present their method in less than 30 seconds to the listening ear.
The serious trader should ask himself if his method actually makes sense.
To my mind that's the key!!!! I'm a student (electronic PHD) and I have many teachers almost all are doctors (8 years or most studying a specific field). You cant understand some of them even if they say they are detailing something very simple and easy but they take 1 hour to explain it. Others always start with Look its very simple and can detail something way more complex in 2 minutes.
In our case if your trading system is easy to understand then that dont mean that he is to simple for trading but that this system make sense. Thats all. And with sense youll be able to keep trading even in a 7 loss row and keep your feelings apart.
If your system is too complex youll have much more chances to be confused and lost.
Im just a trader for 15 days now so I cant really speak with my experience but Ive elaborated a bit the EMA system:
Ive added a warning message (python bot) when I have BTC (that mean the EMA 10 is over the EMA 21) which calculate the differentiation of the EMA 10 (a*x+b function) if a<0 then the bot send me a message like look at BTC price. This does not enter in the trading system Ive just added it as a warning because Ive noticed that under a certain a coefficient the market tend to be short quiet often.
With this method I can trade using a Hourly based EMA. And by the way Im also considering to use 2 EMA base or more in the trading system. Like checking on a 4-hour base to have the trend of the market and selling when the 1-hour base EMA are crossing. Is it an admissible idea?^^ I suppose youll tell me to back test this method. I tried to do so but failed when I needed to use Ninjatrader :/ is any one able to supply me some help or documentation on back testing using ninja or any other tool?
Eventually, on 10 days of active trading I made 3 full trades (USD->BTC->USD) and I had 6.7% profit, -4.3% loss, 7% Profit: ~9% of profit (including the Mt. Gox fees), Im definitely a Pro trader^^ (just kidding). But I never though that trading would be following a system and keeping away information influencing the price of BTC and I support this now
Yup, I descovered Bitcoins a month ago and acquired some with an Mt. Gox account. I've read many things about bitcoin and I think this concept will stay / the price of bitcoin will increase. But I think volatility allow us to "play" a bit with the money and attract new members... Low volatily -> I'll get bored faster but still trust in this system. I'll just stop trading and wait for my BTC to worth something more
Pour l'orthographe c'est écrit dans les annonces, une simple erreur de notre part...
Un site de vente ou vendre ses bit-coins!
Donc on va essayer de résumé pour vos petites langues qui semble bien pendu, dommage que vos yeux ont du mal à suivre... C'est tellement facile de dénigrée! N'est-ce pas?
Le site comme il est noté :
Ce n'est pas clair? Je ne sais pas mais ça me semble quand même assez clair... Mais bon on va essayer autrement!
Ma-brocante.fr est un site dédié aux petites annonces entre particuliers, donc dans le cas présent, vous pouvez vendre vos bitcoins dans la section "Bitcoin"
Pour ce faire (c'est ironique mais bon)
Plus tôt que de tomber sur des Scam, vous pourrez après quelque vente, vous fier au système de réputation (évaluation) afin d'être plus confiant dans le vendeur par exemple...
DONCCCCCCCCC ! plutôt que de vendre vos bit-coins sur un forum on vous proposait une solution de vendre sur une plateforme comme ebay!
De plus comme nous sommes gentils, on autorisait la possibilité de payer les frais de ventes en bitcoin!
Exacte les frais sont vraiment énormes pour un service comme nous le proposons!
Bon de toute façon c'était un service qu'on souhaitait proposez à la communauté, mais vu comment l'idée est reçue...
Avec ce qui est noté plus haut j'espère que cette phrase est clarifiée, encore une fois on va préciser, on n'est pas une banque de bitcoin... on propose un service sur un site d'annonce.
A bon entendeur!
Quote
Donc on va essayer de résumé pour vos petites langues qui semble bien pendu, dommage que vos yeux ont du mal à suivre... C'est tellement facile de dénigrée! N'est-ce pas?
Le site comme il est noté :
Quote
Notre but, c'est de proposer un site où on peut déposer les annonces gratuitement, avec un système de réputation (évaluation) qui est incontestable en matière de confiance! Nous souhaitons également offrir de nombreux moyens de paiements, le Bitcoin y est intégrée. Vous pourrez également crée des enchères comme des achats immédiat!
Ce n'est pas clair? Je ne sais pas mais ça me semble quand même assez clair... Mais bon on va essayer autrement!
Ma-brocante.fr est un site dédié aux petites annonces entre particuliers, donc dans le cas présent, vous pouvez vendre vos bitcoins dans la section "Bitcoin"
Pour ce faire (c'est ironique mais bon)
Plus tôt que de tomber sur des Scam, vous pourrez après quelque vente, vous fier au système de réputation (évaluation) afin d'être plus confiant dans le vendeur par exemple...
DONCCCCCCCCC ! plutôt que de vendre vos bit-coins sur un forum on vous proposait une solution de vendre sur une plateforme comme ebay!
De plus comme nous sommes gentils, on autorisait la possibilité de payer les frais de ventes en bitcoin!
Quote
Sans parler des frais énormes :
Exacte les frais sont vraiment énormes pour un service comme nous le proposons!
Bon de toute façon c'était un service qu'on souhaitait proposez à la communauté, mais vu comment l'idée est reçue...
Quote
Donc, oui au final je ne vois pas bien le rapport avec ce site et le bitcoin (puisqu'ils avouent eux même ne pas bien savoir de quoi il s'agit...Un peu comme l'orthographe on dirait )
Avec ce qui est noté plus haut j'espère que cette phrase est clarifiée, encore une fois on va préciser, on n'est pas une banque de bitcoin... on propose un service sur un site d'annonce.
A bon entendeur!
"On autorisait la possibilité de payer les frais de ventes en bitcoin!" Super sympa ça!
En plus à mon gout c'est pas vraiment de l'échange entre utilisateurs...Tu m'envoies de l'argent par paypal et je te donne des BTC au prix de la MT. GOX 100 -> 3.75 EUR de frais chez paypal (3.4%+0.25 par transaction)
Par exemple le prix du BTC est de 93.9 actuellement tu me donnes 100 je t'envoie 100/93.9=1.064963 BTC
Plus une petite commission pour moi qui baisse au plus tu m'en achètes
100 -> 3.75 EUR de frais chez paypal (3.4%+0.25 par transaction)Par exemple le prix du BTC est de 93.9 actuellement tu me donnes 100 je t'envoie 100/93.9=1.064963 BTC
Plus une petite commission pour moi qui baisse au plus tu m'en achètes
Salut, moi aussi j'ai voulu acheter des bitcoin récemment et la seule manière "sans frais" que j'ai trouvé est le virement SEPA (c'est un virement unitaire international presque gratuit pour les pays de l'union européenne) je dis presque parce que Mt. Gox par exemple te fera payer 2.30 de frais de banque...
Je pense que ça reste le meilleur moyen avec les frais les plus faible! Sinon tu peux essayer paypal et en acheter à un particulier mais pareil il y a des frais pour paypal assez important.
Je n'ai jamais essayé les autres moyen de paiement qui ont l'air louche
Je pense que ça reste le meilleur moyen avec les frais les plus faible! Sinon tu peux essayer paypal et en acheter à un particulier mais pareil il y a des frais pour paypal assez important.
Je n'ai jamais essayé les autres moyen de paiement qui ont l'air louche
Hello everyone! Just went through the 31 pages lol ! Goomboo thats a very interesting strategy youre exposing. Im totally new in the world of trading and bitcoins so I have many things to learn
I still have some simple questions maybe youll say that they are noobish but I cant find clear answers and not even the same questions lol!
So first, on which sites are you trading? Im currently on Mt. Gox but Ive read on one of the first page that its better to have 2 accounts, one for short and one for long How can you do that? I mean you have to buy when its going up and sell when its going down.
Do you have any other site you recommend?
Second question its more a market/trading thing
If for example I want to sell my BTC, imagine now at the current buying price (atm 124$ / 3 BTC available), if I sell 2 BTC, theyll be sell immediately. But now if I want to sell 5 BTC Ill sell 3 immediately and have to wait for someone to complete my offer? Thats it? But Ill still have 3BTC available for trading.
I also wanted to thank you for this journal that is very helpful for me and it allows me to start trading with a strategy. Ill of course study this strategy myself and change some settings. Could you tell us more about the turtle strategy? Or give us some links?
P.S.: sorry if my english is not that correct I'm french lol
Edit: for example use bitstamp/Mt. Gox but how would you do that?
So first, on which sites are you trading? Im currently on Mt. Gox but Ive read on one of the first page that its better to have 2 accounts, one for short and one for long How can you do that? I mean you have to buy when its going up and sell when its going down.
Do you have any other site you recommend?
Second question its more a market/trading thing
If for example I want to sell my BTC, imagine now at the current buying price (atm 124$ / 3 BTC available), if I sell 2 BTC, theyll be sell immediately. But now if I want to sell 5 BTC Ill sell 3 immediately and have to wait for someone to complete my offer? Thats it? But Ill still have 3BTC available for trading.
I also wanted to thank you for this journal that is very helpful for me and it allows me to start trading with a strategy. Ill of course study this strategy myself and change some settings. Could you tell us more about the turtle strategy? Or give us some links?
P.S.: sorry if my english is not that correct I'm french lol
Edit: for example use bitstamp/Mt. Gox but how would you do that?