North Korea just launched its Ballistic Missile. Should the world be alarmed?
This question is even more interesting to ponder now, 10 months after it was initially posted. As we all know, the recent charm offensive by North Korea's dictator, Kim Jong-Un, is an interesting development to ponder. Why is it happening now, when just a little more than six months ago, President Trump and Kim were trading very undiplomatic barbs with each other and the relationship seemed to be fast-tracked to a destination that most people would prefer to not contemplate -- war on the Korean peninsula that could escalate to the nuclear level. Now, they are in the process of preparing for the first ever summit between a US president and the leader of North Korea.
Why the change? It's hard to put one's finger on it, but I think there are several possibilities:
1) Trump's rhetoric actually scared Kim, his senior leadership and, quite possibly, the North's main sponsor, the Chinese, into believing that the world was indeed careening to nuclear or conventional war in the Koreas, with possible spillover into China and that a drastic change of course is necessary;
2) Kim finally has accepted that the economic mess he presides over is on the verge of collapse, cutting short his rule and his life at the hands of an angry North Korean elite;
3) Kim believes he is in a strong position to bargain with the USA for an outcome that favors the North, in general, and Kim's objectives, in particular; or
4) The Chinese have convinced Kim that he has a lot more to gain from instituting a form of crony state capitalism similar to China's and working with South Korea and the USA, rather than against them.
Just some thoughts. Any other perspectives out there?