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investing 50,000 USD now, after 220 days (one year) and compounding daily earnings with a 1.2 % per day -> 689,178 USD
not bad....
not bad....
Yes, but that is not very realistic. First at all you can't compound, you'll need to purchase new shares with a new lock-in period. But I agree, the result could be similar after a years time. But more important is that Brandenburg confirmed to me that there are limitiations in the volume they are able to use for trading. Once they reach this volume - which also depends heavily on if and how much people repurchase after their shares are expiring - there might be times when no more shares are available to purchase.
IF they actually cap shares that would be a good thing.
IF NOT then we have a better indicator of where this is going. Problem is without auditing you have no idea if they've hit their arbitrage cap or the total assets they're working with.
I don't disagree with anything BigRedBrent said.
I think I say in my original post in this thread that I realize it could be a long term scam.
I will say that one difference between this and a traditional ponzi is that this service has a real utility to the user in that it protects you from bitcoin volatility. (A Ponzi just prevents you from spending all of your money at once.)
Another difference is that traditional ponzi operators usually don't have a printing press in their basement and a license to use it. Of course, it could be possible that bitcoin-trader.biz's mining operations could be far less than what their shares would seem to represent or even entirely fictional.
Now, I don't know much about mining. However, if someone else were to contact them and ask intelligent inquiries about their equipment, I would love to hear the responses. I'd even volunteer to do the contact if someone would pm the questions to ask.
It would also be a good time to once again bring up that Mr. Brandenburg claimed that they will be present at the Toronto Bitcoin Expo next month. I would really appreciate if anyone went and found out if this were true. Anyone here in the Toronto area at that time?
I think I say in my original post in this thread that I realize it could be a long term scam.
I will say that one difference between this and a traditional ponzi is that this service has a real utility to the user in that it protects you from bitcoin volatility. (A Ponzi just prevents you from spending all of your money at once.)
Another difference is that traditional ponzi operators usually don't have a printing press in their basement and a license to use it. Of course, it could be possible that bitcoin-trader.biz's mining operations could be far less than what their shares would seem to represent or even entirely fictional.
Now, I don't know much about mining. However, if someone else were to contact them and ask intelligent inquiries about their equipment, I would love to hear the responses. I'd even volunteer to do the contact if someone would pm the questions to ask.
It would also be a good time to once again bring up that Mr. Brandenburg claimed that they will be present at the Toronto Bitcoin Expo next month. I would really appreciate if anyone went and found out if this were true. Anyone here in the Toronto area at that time?
They claim to have 10TH (https://bitcoin-trader.biz/mining.php) of mining gear with new additions coming frequently. If they've sold 1700 mining shares they should have $170,000. That's plenty of cash to put together a very large mining operation. Well in excess of 10TH/s. Even at absurd ebay rates you could get 20-40TH/s with 170k. If they got in on a early stage preorder then they could have a considerable farm built up. They need to stretch your mining share over a year though so may stagger equipment purchases to get the best bang for the buck.
10000/1700 = 6GH/s per user
Their bitcoin mining profits seem roughly consistent with their payouts, using https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/calculator
0 diff (This isn't realistic just looking at current data/difficulty)
0 electricity
0 pool fee
8GH/s hash rate (Current mining share rate)
100 hardware
0 power/watts
1 start day
Should net around .58 USD a day, the calculator is generally a little on the cautious side from what I've seen.
They list their current mining earnings at .63%(100$/share), so not overshot by a large margin.
Whether or not they actually have any equipment is speculative of course but given the numbers provided it's possible.
The lack of 4 months of data could be them "internally or beta testing" one cycle of 120 days for the trading shares.
There are definitely arbitrage opportunities in the BTC space, not quite as much now as prior but up until recently there was possibility to make easy money trading between exchanges. The value was several %% different on a daily basis. Therefore I feel this has potential to be a "real" product being offered.
My biggest issue is the time your USD is tied up between trades, IF you are able to successfully arbitrage deals, your money is generally tied up a few days getting back into your bank account. I'm not personally familiar with all of their payment processors, perhaps one of them allows money to be moved in and out a little quicker.
It could also be that they just have a large amount of USD and are influencing multiple exchanges at a time. It isn't really unheard of to see a number of large buys incite panic buying. Once the swing up is settled they bail out and rinse/repeat the next day. 2-3% daily swings at all exchanges is pretty standard. Never mind the days where panic buying/selling incites 5% differentials in a day or just a few hours.
Definitely not endorsing the service until more data is available but I am using it currently.
Will provide % back on shares purchased if you set me as your referrer. For those that are curious, PM me!
https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref= [ref removed]
There are definitely arbitrage opportunities in the BTC space, not quite as much now as prior but up until recently there was possibility to make easy money trading between exchanges. The value was several %% different on a daily basis. Therefore I feel this has potential to be a "real" product being offered.
My biggest issue is the time your USD is tied up between trades, IF you are able to successfully arbitrage deals, your money is generally tied up a few days getting back into your bank account. I'm not personally familiar with all of their payment processors, perhaps one of them allows money to be moved in and out a little quicker.
It could also be that they just have a large amount of USD and are influencing multiple exchanges at a time. It isn't really unheard of to see a number of large buys incite panic buying. Once the swing up is settled they bail out and rinse/repeat the next day. 2-3% daily swings at all exchanges is pretty standard. Never mind the days where panic buying/selling incites 5% differentials in a day or just a few hours.
Definitely not endorsing the service until more data is available but I am using it currently.
Will provide % back on shares purchased if you set me as your referrer. For those that are curious, PM me!
https://bitcoin-trader.biz/?ref= [ref removed]
Invested 1300 or so.
I made an error on my first test deposit by .001. It took support about 12 hours to correct the issue and credit my account properly.
The other deposit that I issued correctly posted in under an hour.
Support was very responsive.
Very interesting, I wonder what they consider they're arbitrage cap.
I made an error on my first test deposit by .001. It took support about 12 hours to correct the issue and credit my account properly.
The other deposit that I issued correctly posted in under an hour.
Support was very responsive.
Very interesting, I wonder what they consider they're arbitrage cap.
Tell them you'll gladly turn them off if they compensate you monthly for your mining profitability + a percentage.
Otherwise tell them to piss off and get off your property!
It may be a crime to "maliciously" interfere with the tower but you could easily circumvent that.
Otherwise tell them to piss off and get off your property!
It may be a crime to "maliciously" interfere with the tower but you could easily circumvent that.
This coin has a really slow difficulty adjustment. Kind of old time coins.
Global hashrate is only 10% of what it was before N change and diff just went down from 81 to 64 !
Is it dev's goal, only POS ?
Global hashrate is only 10% of what it was before N change and diff just went down from 81 to 64 !
Is it dev's goal, only POS ?
More like 3%, haven't seen coins yielded in 3 days now in P2Pool.
Odd my last payout was 3/7 259 EST.
I swapped over to solo as hash dropped but I usually get paid out on the next 5-6 blocks. Unless that's different when the block time gets so huge.
This coin has a really slow difficulty adjustment. Kind of old time coins.
Global hashrate is only 10% of what it was before N change and diff just went down from 81 to 64 !
Is it dev's goal, only POS ?
Global hashrate is only 10% of what it was before N change and diff just went down from 81 to 64 !
Is it dev's goal, only POS ?
More like 3%, haven't seen coins yielded in 3 days now in P2Pool.
pool.cachecoin.net says the network hashrate is 116 mh/s right now ...
My hashrate ~271k / net hashrate = 0.00233144039880279119666983471975 (A)
~1152 (B) blocks generated a day (ballparking it as I didn't have the reward formula initially but I'm still pretty close) ...
A * B = 2.68581933 CACH/day
Lowest CACH sell order on Cryptsy atm - 0.00666000 (C)
A*B*C = 0.01788755 BTC/day/rig
Are your estimates accounting for the drop in network hashrate since the change?
My hashrate ~271k / net hashrate = 0.00233144039880279119666983471975 (A)
~1152 (B) blocks generated a day (ballparking it as I didn't have the reward formula initially but I'm still pretty close) ...
A * B = 2.68581933 CACH/day
Lowest CACH sell order on Cryptsy atm - 0.00666000 (C)
A*B*C = 0.01788755 BTC/day/rig
getprofitestimate after last nights N factor adjustment has created a 75% drop in profitability for me.
Are your estimates accounting for the drop in network hashrate since the change?
Block target is 15 minutes which equates roughly to 96 blocks per day. A majority of which are PoS, not PoW.
We're sitting at 1 mined block (PoW) in 14 hours. So your calculations are way off.
Blocks take 3-5 days to confirm and payout.
Not sure where you're getting your numbers from.
getprofitestimate after last nights N factor adjustment has created a 75% drop in profitability for me.
I was averaging 20ish coins per day with 3.3MH/s on N=10
getprofitestimate is estimating 5 coins per day now with 1.7MH/s
I still think a majority of the problem exists with the difficulty not dropping properly after a large spike. Guess we'll see over the next week
Sapphire Vapor-X 280x 144kh/s
Sapphire 290 170kh/s
Sapphire 290x 182kh/s
Not sure where you're getting your numbers from.
getprofitestimate after last nights N factor adjustment has created a 75% drop in profitability for me.
I was averaging 20ish coins per day with 3.3MH/s on N=10
getprofitestimate is estimating 5 coins per day now with 1.7MH/s
I still think a majority of the problem exists with the difficulty not dropping properly after a large spike. Guess we'll see over the next week
Sapphire Vapor-X 280x 144kh/s
Sapphire 290 170kh/s
Sapphire 290x 182kh/s
Looks like mining this coin is pretty pointless until difficulty drops.
9 hours in between blocks and we see a difficulty increase
PoS blocks really need to adjust difficulty for PoW especially when they count towards the 15 minute block time.
9 hours in between blocks and we see a difficulty increase
PoS blocks really need to adjust difficulty for PoW especially when they count towards the 15 minute block time.
Are we looking at another 5-6 days before difficulty drops to a better proportion with hashrate?
That hashrate spike really screws with the difficulty.
That hashrate spike really screws with the difficulty.
what wrong? mining goes on, confirmations take less than the targeted 15 minutes...... All is well as for as the protocol is concerned
Nothings wrong per se.
I was just curious how long it will take difficulty to actually reflect the current hashrate?
For example Feb 13 estimated hashrate was around 65MH/s and difficulty was 10.11 with 17 coins/block. (http://stats.cachecoin.org/charts.)
Today estimated hashrate from getmininginfo is 66MH and a difficulty of 53 with 12.8 coins/block
The difficulty has been dropping 10-12 per day since 500MH/s has dropped from the network.
Block time seems to be around 14.9 minutes in the past 16 hours so that aspect seems correct.
All is well regarding the protocol and network however, the people still mining the coin are "holding the bag" to solve blocks while difficulty adjusts back down for several days to a week. You are basically mining at ~75% the efficiency or less you were prior to the hashrate spike.
Am I incorrect with this data?
If we continually see huge increases in hash once things settle back down I feel like it hurts the long term viability of the coin somewhat.
Take this as an example. There was obviously a huge pump of the coin in terms of hash and difficulty the last few days. There is now around 1 week of less efficient or less profitable mining to be done before we're back to "normal". IF there is another huge pump what is the incentive to stick it out if the coin can be "easily" manipulated with profitability ebbing and flowing.
Isn't the purpose of this coins difficulty calculations to make mining as evenly profitable and fair at all times?
Should the difficulty deltas be adjusted slightly so the difficulty is more responsive to huge spikes in hashrate as well as huge drops hence making it more resilient to pump and dump miners?
How many prior blocks are referenced with calculating next difficulty? Or is there a cap on the net change in difficulty per block if it is recalculated every block.
Is there anywhere more information is available regarding block reward and difficulty adjustments for this coin?
Thanks for taking the time to read and answer.
I'm not trying to bash the coin, I just want to understand how it works under the hood a bit better.
The difficulty is recalculated on every block. Max diff can increase is by ~0.3% but it can drop by any % (according to how long it took the last block to be solved). You can find more info from src
I guess we'll see a massive difficulty drop if this is working as intended assuming we can solve a PoW block lol...
This is my first jane coin, so this n factor change thing is new to me. I was spewing hardware errors when I switched my miners over to cache this morning, so I've dropped the intensity, they're running cleanly now at about 1/4 the hashing power or something (which is making it pointless to mine cache at all), but they seem very underutilized - the temps are very low. I'm suspect I can get more out of them if I tweak things other than intensity, but I'm not about to spend a half a day doing that when I'm sure people have seen this before and can save me a lot of time ... is there a general guide/rule of thumb for what to tweak other than just intensity when there is an n factor change on a jane coin? I don't expect to see the same hashrate, obviously, but my GPUs sitting there bored and cool can't be optimal.
Cheers.
Cheers.
Personally I had to completely retune my gpus this n factor to get a decent hashrate. Huge PITA for sure!
How come difficulty has remained the same for each block after Nfactor increase? Seems to still be at ~80/block. Shouldnt the difficulty drop proportional to the net hashrate drop?
edit: oh woops doesnt change until hitting the set block change amt..cant wait lol
edit: oh woops doesnt change until hitting the set block change amt..cant wait lol
Difficulty drops very slowly and only on PoW blocks.
It's very difficult to mine for at least a week after a large hashrate spike, the N factor adjustment is just icing on the cake.
There are plenty of persistent windows commands, issuing them once is sufficient.
setx is just editing system environment variables. Go to System Properties > Advanced > Environment Variables > User Variables
There's your 2 parameters.
So doubt or not, it works
P2P (P2Pool.cachecoin.org) has been extremely stable for me, maybe it's your latency to the node? 1-2% rejects on 280x. 4.5% rejects on my 290's
I solo mine once hash drops back below 100MH/s.
Either way, good luck mining!
setx is just editing system environment variables. Go to System Properties > Advanced > Environment Variables > User Variables
There's your 2 parameters.
So doubt or not, it works
P2P (P2Pool.cachecoin.org) has been extremely stable for me, maybe it's your latency to the node? 1-2% rejects on 280x. 4.5% rejects on my 290's
I solo mine once hash drops back below 100MH/s.
Either way, good luck mining!
I use it to auto-restart my computers and cgwatcher reboots via the registry without issue.
I don't manually execute any commands, and mining commences without issue.
I believe once you issue those from a cmd or bat re-issuing is just redundant.
I don't manually execute any commands, and mining commences without issue.
I believe once you issue those from a cmd or bat re-issuing is just redundant.
Try Intensity 19, if that works you may need to "re-tune" your cards to keep them at I 20.
Thanks I will give that a try... I have 4 different miners... this is the only one that does this.. although others have also been very unstable latetly, Crashing the Scrypt jane miner and requiring a re-boot very frequently !
I had been experimenting with my tuning during and found that I could clock down the memory to 800MHZ from 1500 without a decrease in performance just an FYI for everyone out there ! Also powertune does not increase performance from 0 to +20 does not increase hashing performance.
Cheers,
I have noticed some oddities with tuning on the latest N-Factor as well.
Make sure you're submitting sufficient shares and getting proper WU still. Don't just assume a certain kh/s means everything is good
If the miners are windows based make sure and try CGWatcher, lots of nice features to keep your miners hashing 24x7.
Can someoneplease explain why this keeps happening to me and how to fix it ....
When I mine after while some of my miners report they are going speeds in GH/s which is obviously impossible ... I don't know if this as affecting my mining bit I would like it to stop ... also this was the first time I got HW errors ....
See image to see what i mean.. the top 2 are reporting speeds in GH/s.
http://imgur.com/5eUjbX6
GPU 0: Gigabyte r9 290 OC (windforce)
GPU 1: Sapphire Tri-x r9 290
GPU 2: Sapphire Tri-x r9 290
GPU 3: Sapphire Tri-x r9 290
HEre is my PC info:
http://imgur.com/8B3AQ9n
This is my config file content:
{
"pools" : [
{
"name" : "qhor P2P",
"url" : "http://q30.qhor.net:8336",
"user" : "CZVP8n6MhNigMn7adbF8e8zqCC3fgQFEZR",
"pass" : "xx",
"pool-priority" : "0"
},
{
"name" : "CaCHE p2cache.syware.de P2P",
"url" : "http://p2cache.syware.de:8336",
"user" : "CZVP8n6MhNigMn7adbF8e8zqCC3fgQFEZR",
"pass" : "xx",
"pool-priority" : "1"
},
{
"name" : "p2p-miner.info(0)",
"url" : "http://p2pool-miner.info:8336",
"user" : "CZVP8n6MhNigMn7adbF8e8zqCC3fgQFEZR",
"pass" : "xx",
"pool-priority" : "2"
}
],
"api-allow" : "W:127.0.0.1",
"api-listen" : true,
"failover-only" : true,
"fix-protocol" : true,
"kernel-path" : "/usr/local/bin",
"no-submit-stale" : true,
"queue" : "0",
"gpu-threads" : "1",
"gpu-engine" : "1040,1000,1000,1000",
"gpu-fan" : "70",
"gpu-platform" : "0",
"gpu-memclock" : "1500",
"gpu-powertune" : "20",
"intensity" : "20",
"temp-target" : "85",
"temp-overheat" : "92",
"temp-cutoff" : "94",
"vectors" : "1",
"worksize" : "256",
"lookup-gap" : "2",
"shaders" : "0",
"thread-concurrency" : "30592",
"scrypt-jane" : true,
"sj-Nfmin" : "4",
"sj-Nfmax" : "30",
"sj-time" : "1388949883"
}
Thanks in advance for help!
When I mine after while some of my miners report they are going speeds in GH/s which is obviously impossible ... I don't know if this as affecting my mining bit I would like it to stop ... also this was the first time I got HW errors ....
See image to see what i mean.. the top 2 are reporting speeds in GH/s.
http://imgur.com/5eUjbX6
GPU 0: Gigabyte r9 290 OC (windforce)
GPU 1: Sapphire Tri-x r9 290
GPU 2: Sapphire Tri-x r9 290
GPU 3: Sapphire Tri-x r9 290
HEre is my PC info:
http://imgur.com/8B3AQ9n
This is my config file content:
{
"pools" : [
{
"name" : "qhor P2P",
"url" : "http://q30.qhor.net:8336",
"user" : "CZVP8n6MhNigMn7adbF8e8zqCC3fgQFEZR",
"pass" : "xx",
"pool-priority" : "0"
},
{
"name" : "CaCHE p2cache.syware.de P2P",
"url" : "http://p2cache.syware.de:8336",
"user" : "CZVP8n6MhNigMn7adbF8e8zqCC3fgQFEZR",
"pass" : "xx",
"pool-priority" : "1"
},
{
"name" : "p2p-miner.info(0)",
"url" : "http://p2pool-miner.info:8336",
"user" : "CZVP8n6MhNigMn7adbF8e8zqCC3fgQFEZR",
"pass" : "xx",
"pool-priority" : "2"
}
],
"api-allow" : "W:127.0.0.1",
"api-listen" : true,
"failover-only" : true,
"fix-protocol" : true,
"kernel-path" : "/usr/local/bin",
"no-submit-stale" : true,
"queue" : "0",
"gpu-threads" : "1",
"gpu-engine" : "1040,1000,1000,1000",
"gpu-fan" : "70",
"gpu-platform" : "0",
"gpu-memclock" : "1500",
"gpu-powertune" : "20",
"intensity" : "20",
"temp-target" : "85",
"temp-overheat" : "92",
"temp-cutoff" : "94",
"vectors" : "1",
"worksize" : "256",
"lookup-gap" : "2",
"shaders" : "0",
"thread-concurrency" : "30592",
"scrypt-jane" : true,
"sj-Nfmin" : "4",
"sj-Nfmax" : "30",
"sj-time" : "1388949883"
}
Thanks in advance for help!
Is this seriously not happening to anyone else ? It keeps happening to me more often.. Basically the GPU is useless once this happens and does not submit any shares.. I keep having to reboot every 45 minutes this is really annoying. Any help would be appreciated.
cheers,
Try Intensity 19, if that works you may need to "re-tune" your cards to keep them at I 20.