In recent times, I have been making various attempts to avoid disclosing too many specifics regarding exactly how many coins that I hold, but surely, there is some information out there in which you could get ball park ideas.

Based on this post, and your earlier posts about your average cost per coin, here is my approximate estimate regarding the number of coins that you own.


Approximate amount invested:  4.53 x $750 = $3,400

Based on my foggy memory - estimated average cost per coin:  $150

Approximate current number of coins held:   $3400 / $150 = 22.67  ( 1/one millionth of the total BTC supply)

Strong and seemingly non-substantive commentary to assert that you are pointing out some kind of non-existent "hypocrisy."

In essence, I have provided sufficient reasoning, in spite of your trolling and in spite of your selectively clipping out my rationale, and I have provided various reasoning in previous similar posts on the same topic, as well, regarding similar types of BTC price predictions that I have been making for quite a while, now.

Sorry if we are repeating a fairly minute topic regarding the specifics of BTC price predictions; however, under my current working theory, I am thinking that we have quite a long way to go in order to get into the mid $800s (at least one price correction, if not more than one), so accordingly, it does not seem very likely that our upward projectile and potentially explosive journey in that direction would be able to start until the mid-$800s or possibly a tiny bit later. 

Of course, there is a possibility that I could be wrong, and the journey could possibly start earlier (surely, I would love to be wrong), but I think that the possibilities of starting our upwards projectile - potentially violently explosive journey towards northerly territories is fairly remote chances to begin from a mid $700s point (such as our current price point, right now).

Please, please, please prove me to be wrong, but to me, the odds seem quite against such a happening.   

According to this chart:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zig2-hourzczsg2010-02-15zeg2011-1-15ztgMzm1g10zm2g25zv

$.15 was around November 2010, and it appears that May 2010 would have been quite lower, maybe in the pennies territory and not officially trading yet.


I don't member nuttin bout bitcoin until late 2013, and better late than never..,no? especially since there are only some folks who are currently finding out about bitcoin, and they gots no stake into bitcoin, and maybe some of those just finding out folks are going to want to jump on the bitcoin train (possibly rocket) when we are on our soon upcoming journey from mid $800s into the $3k to $5k territory?

Well, if we look back at this past month, what is that called? an ascending triangle?  or would it be called the about 5th testing of resistance in the mid $700s, with each of those test a tiny bit higher than the last (or at least within a kind of range that seems to have a bit of an inclination).

Even though we are still operating with mediocre trade volumes which still continues to bolster a conclusion that any kind of meaningful price battle has not yet begun, I lean towards our situation being a bit more bullish than not, and this current situation is kind of feeling similar to the place we were in early 2016 in the mid $400s. this time feels more incline to break upwards sooner, but you can never really know in bitcoinlandia how long we could remain in a kind of holding pattern.

Thank you Harrymmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm for pointing that out, because frequently some of these seg wit naysayers are putting out misinformation regarding the supposed "vettedness" of inadequate and likely dangerous competing code.

You seem like you are trolling, butt hurt and/or feeling sorry for bitcoin deniers, big blockers and FUD spreaders, and my view of bitcoin's future is based on a combination hunches, probabilities, based on bitcoin's past performance of overshooting possibilities including rhyming.. and not necessarily repeating, also based on networking effects (including considerations of Metcalfe's law that could cause additional exponential growth periods) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law

Mine is also a working hypothesis that I have had for a while (longer than a year, if I recall correctly), but I would be more than willing to tweak it or to give up upon it, if it appeared that any of the material bitcoin fundamentals were to change and justify such a giving up upon.        

I don't think so.  The more I think about it, the more I conclude that every single word that I used was completely and absolutely necessary.

You are probably correct that it is not necessary for me to attempt to engage with you on this topic, and I think that I already stated my reasons and you stated your reasons and we seem to disagree about things.

By the way, even though you seem inclined to want to disqualify me from this topic, it does not seem to be necessary to know all technical aspects of seg wit in order to know things about bitcoin and/or segwit and to contribute to this kind of thread from whatever level, and as a bonus, it seems to me that the OP of this thread attempts to approach this seg wit topic from a non-technical perspective.

I used as many words as I decided was adequate to respond to the issue.

If you are summarizing what I said in ways other than what I said, then I said what I am trying to say.  On the other hand, if you are asking me to clarify or to go into more detail, then sure, I am stating my opinion based on a variety of factors, probabilities, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.   And yes, more or less what I am saying, at this time, is that there is likely to be decent BTC price momentum at the point of getting passed the mid $800s... not 100% but decent likelihood. 

I am not saying that anything is certain, but I am saying that it makes less sense, to me, when posters are asserting theories at this particular time and based on probabilities and various knowns and unknowns about BTC price sticking points that are seeming to be less logical than my own.. hahahahaha...
, especially if in our current price point, they are asserting BTC price sticking points in the $900 to $2000 range without providing some kind of explanation or context.. .. and therefore, $2,400 also makes little sense to me, if there is not some kind of context that would justify such an explanation (as I had attempted to provide in my earlier post on the topic).

So, to repeat, my view is not set in stone, and after matters unravel, they can begin to unravel in ways that cause my own theory to no longer make sense because matters may unravel in ways that change the theory and probabilities..

In other words, I have my theories, at this point, that I will revise under changing circumstances and as justified by the happening knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.. and known unknowns are more probable to take place than unknown unknowns, and unknown unknowns can throw monkey wrenches in the tentative theories.  So, yeah, seriously, there are various working ideas that help to plan - even though there is justification that all of the eggs would NOT be put into that basket.

Yes, I see that you have a very hard time staying on topic and responding to the substance of what people say within some kind of context.  I say all kinds of shit, within a context and responsive to a point.  Your various responses to me, are not responsive to what I say but instead attempts at distractions by either raising other issues or attempting to make the context of one response reply to another situation (which seems to be the thrust of why you are quoting me)... a pretty decent sign that you are not attempting to engage in any kind of meaningful discussion, but instead engaging in distracting levels of shit stirring.

It seems likely that we can see that the premise of a discussion everyone being on the same page is a bit off base, and the foundation of bitcoin's set up or governance is not really needing folks to be on the same page.. , so if they are not largely on the same page, then the status quo continues.. and if there are enough of them on the same page seg wit goes forward and if there are enough of them that believe that a blocksize limit increase is a good idea, then that goes forward.  It can take a long time to play out to get from discussion of a topic, creation of code, testing and vetting the code and then getting a considerable amount of agreement (consensus level) on it's activation.

Surely, seg wit is much further along the road towards consensus than any blocksize limit increase... and sure, there could be simultaneous proposals or seg wit could get pulled and revised if that course of action seems more likely to achieve consensus.. but at the moment seg wit is on the table, and those who are working towards blocking it don't have feasible code that has gone through the vetting process.  It is pie in the sky to work on a premise that all folks are going to substantially agree - but it is not pie in the sky to recognize that some proposals are further along in the process and have better chances to survive than others.  Even though there are a lot of naysayers regarding seg wit, seg wit seems to have really decent chances of getting activated in the year's time that it is on the table (or alternatively some close version with agreeable tweaks). 

It would not be the end of the world or even close to the end of the world if bitcoin does not achieve consensus on any of the proposed changes in the coming years.  Bitcoin is still going to serve quite well, even though getting closer and closer to activating seg wit would probably be very bullish for bitcoin's prices, because it seems to be a very good next step....

I have been around long enough to recognize the difference between substantive discussion and distraction and to know when folks are engaged in snow jobs and attempts to drag discussion into the weeds rather than engaging in substantive discussions that get the broader picture correct (as well as the details, if they are necessary and relevant), and I have likely said sufficiently enough, at this point... because your seeming attempts to focus on the weeds in order to attempt to trick and distract seems quite apparent.   

Surely, if you start to make some sense in some of your basic discussion of facts, parameters and logic then maybe I will spend a little time looking further into those substantive discussions (to the extent they might exist), which at this point seem to be mostly nonsensical distractions and speculations rather than pointing out actual cost benefit analysis based on real world and probable facts and decent logic.

Regarding the actual outline of seg wit, it was proposed and vetted over the past year or so (and maybe it took a bit longer than necessary, but that also gave time for vetting and discussion), and accordingly, seg wit seems to be presented as a very decent next step, especially from folks who are providing decent and non tricky explanations.  

Surely, if some supplemental alternatives get proposed and approved, such as increasing the blocksize har limit or something like that, or changing bitcoin's governance (which seems to be the agenda of a lot of the nutjob seg wit naysayers) then surely reasonable and necessary changes can be considered, vetted, and then incorporated, as well, but at this point, the advantages of seg wit seem to largely outweigh speculation and very unlikely scenarios about it's supposed disadvantages.

Yes, another sign of a misinformation campaign is attacking the person rather than the argument.   And, by the way, I am not a newbie.. just having some issues with my regular account, as might be inferred by my username.

Substantively, I have trouble with quite a few of the seg wit naysayers, because in part, when seg wit was first proposed in December 2015, there was nearly unanimous agreement that it was a good thing for bitcoin.  And, overall, there really is no major technical criticism against it - except for attempts at FUD spreading (in other words misinformation campaigns that play to emotions rather than logic).

Surely it would be a good thing to get seg wit activated in the coming 6 months in order that Bitcoin developers will be able to take advantage of some of the features and to build upon it and to bring more to end-users, such as myself (and maybe a large segment of the population that does not want to get into technicalities, as long as their value remains decentralized immutable and securely able to store and transfer).

 

Pretty much when anyone tries to redefine FUD spreading as if it were some form of higher but necessary truth, then most of the time, that person is engaged in such a practice of disinformation.  (by the way, FUD spreading = the posting of information (usually misinformation) that is meant to cause Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt in the reader of such)

O.k... 1 week, possibly $800...

O.k.... possibly, some kind of global economic unity in 10 years, but more likely 30-50 years.. As others have suggested, there can be a lot of different ways that "global economic unity" would play out, and 10 years seems way too soon to sort those kinds of matters out.

Regarding the "pushing 2,400", I think that is a problematic number to be "pushing."  Even though the future does not play out the same as the past, $2400 is an awkward place for BTC.

Once we get passed the mid $800's, the most likely price range would end up in the $3k to $5k territory, and then likely we would have a correction of some sort.

I doubt that we are going to get stuck at $2,400 for any significant time, unless it would be coming back after the correction, which could take a bit more than a year's time to play out.  

On the other hand, it is possible that we could experience a pump into the $3 to $5k range, and then experience a correction that takes place quickly, but causes use to get stuck in the $2,400 range and therefore "pushing" $2400.





Hahahahaha


That is pessimistic.  

Therefore, in your view, if I just HODL my current coins, the best case price appreciation scenario that I could expect with my current coins is 30x....

Oh Fucks!!!!  Seems that I am only going to be 30x more richie with my current BTC.  

You are not "sole."  


There are plenty of trolls who hold the same view that BTC prices are going down.. These lovely troll people, bots predict "downwards", almost no matter what happens.  Therefore, you have good company.

O.k.  Fair enough, but it seems like it could take a few months to sort this kind of thing out.. especially if there are seeming to be some attempts at coordinating and even some confusion from miners about whether or not to support seg wit.

I am with you concerning your conclusion that ultimately seg wit is going to be implemented... but yeah, it could take a bit of time to get there.

 


So how many coins (or what percentage of my BTC holdings) should I sell in order to protect myself from this possibility?