For most of us who are holding coins outside of centralized exchanges, is it sound to transfer the coins to exchanges now or in spring 2025?
The reasoning behind my question is, right now the prices might have gone up relative to the past two years, but if the cycle continues and prices pump by mid next year, at that point, if we transfer the coins to exchanges, wouldn't those transfers incur more fees than if we transfer now when the prices hopefully are cheaper relative to mid next year?
For instance, if I have 1,000 BTC (one can dream, can't it?) and transfer all to CEX abc, and the network fees is 0.5% in Dec 2024, that translates to 1,000 x $100,000 x 0.5% = $500,000, as opposed as to, say, Nov 2025 when the price had gone up to $200,000, and the network congestion can drive the fees higher, where the same transfer might cost the user 1,000 x $200,000 x 0.8% = $1,600,00.
Of course, I'm talking about transferring to "safer", well known, long running CEXes, and not any run of the mill/"come-let-me-scam-you" CEX. My lean on this idea is that, even if these large CEXes, such as Coinbase, end up failing, it won't happen during the crypto season such as 2021 or 2017. If anything, they'd start failing a year after that (2026) -- long after the cold hard cash has been withdrawn.
No way would I be holding anything on an exchange for longer than absolutely necessary . You have to consider the risk rather than any gain you might make.
If you lost all your holdings because the exchange collapsed or was frozen that small gain you might have have made will mean nothing.
Don't make any assumptions about the safety of any exchange, in a bull or bear market. In a bull market prices are higher so more reward for rug pulls! People assume their investments are safe on Coinbase for example. Really? You trust everything they're telling us. The only thing I trust is my cold wallet and even those are not 100%! Look at it as the costs of security! 😉