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Showing 20 of 24 results by Xu
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Re: [Havelock] Bitcoin Difficulty Derivative (BDD) - Auto-EXCH Now Enabled!
by
Xu
on 18/04/2014, 14:45:15 UTC
The hash rate is computed based upon the daily average of found blocks and the current difficulty. It is not directly reported. So, the variance you see probably has more to do with the random luck of finding coins rather than the actual computing power of the network. So, if a bunch of blocks are found in a short period of time, the algorithm infers there was a large hash rate increase, even though the actual hash rate may have not changed. As the rate of finding blocks returns to normal, the inferred hash rate decreases. Since it is averaged over time, you see these relatively smooth rises and falls.

In short, the swings mean absolutely nothing other than pure variance. The longer term trend of course does indicate the increase in total network has rate.

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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 18/04/2014, 00:22:43 UTC
In that case... Stop whining and sell your shares already.  Or do you just come on here saying a lot of stupid angry things in a lame attempt to drive the price down?

No sorry, I have hundreds thousands of euros investment here, i'll be no quiet here, sorry. I need answers and results, its not fucking church money here and no, i don't want to sell at 0.5 BTC/share ... no comment.  Angry worst "investment" in my life


Seems to me if you are so deeply invested and want the price to go up, you should perhaps not be bashing the company but instead talk it up, or at least keep silent.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 14/04/2014, 06:09:46 UTC
Large dump just happened on Havelock: sold all the way down to 0.451. Lots of shares up for grabs in the low .50s.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 05/03/2014, 15:31:58 UTC
0.00060435 confirmed (as if anyone needs to confirm SmiGueL).

SmiGueL was off by 0.00000002...don't know why anyone would trust his estimates any more.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 04/03/2014, 14:35:04 UTC
Hey, we found another block over night. Dividends are going to be comparatively great this week!
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 28/02/2014, 01:16:27 UTC
Is there any way to get notifications when AM solves a block?

I was thinking about that, someone throw up a website that sends me an SMS text when they solve a block!

Id rather someone make an app that alerts me when FC makes a new post.

I'd rather someone make an app that alerts me an hour before FC makes a new post.
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Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 27/02/2014, 16:28:19 UTC
4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.

How did you get 3.4%?  My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day.
It was really a sort of back of the envelop calculation, but here is how I got it. If we found 3 blocks in 7 days, there is a 3/7 chance of finding 1 block per day. 4 in a day would be (3/7)^4 which is about 3.4%.

Assuming my math is right, that means about a 1 in 30 chance of 4 blocks on any given day, so this sort of thing should happen about once a month, so it might not be anything other than just random luck.
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Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 27/02/2014, 16:04:13 UTC
4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.

How did you get 3.4%?  My math show that the odds of good luck is a lot lower given you average 3 blocks a week but found 4 in a day.
It was really a sort of back of the envelop calculation, but here is how I got it. If we found 3 blocks in 7 days, there is a 3/7 chance of finding 1 block per day. 4 in a day would be (3/7)^4 which is about 3.4%.
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Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 27/02/2014, 15:51:23 UTC
4 blocks mined in less than 24 hours. Last week we found 3 blocks all week. The odds that this is just "good luck" is about 3.4%. Put another way, there is roughly a 96% chance that AM's hashrate just got a fairly dramatic increase. FC got sample chips, and got them hashing already, and their performance boosted AM's hash rate that much?

It's all just speculation at this point, but signs are looking really good...you can almost feel a coming FC announcement in the air.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 05/02/2014, 22:18:59 UTC
Someone, or even a few just lost their nerves on Havelock.
I know it's no sugary pie-land, but I still feel a lot better than the days and weeks before friedcat's latest announcement. How about you guys?

Announcement of what ? He just re-stated what he said before and told us there will be some delays but everything is on track. And its week later and we still have no confirmed tape out

He did announce specs of the new chips that were significantly better than previously announced, that manufacturing and deployment should be on time in March, and tapeout mid-February. It is only Feb 5th. I wouldn't even get nervous about lack of tapeout until the 20th at the earliest, and even then, FC has been notoriously slow to communicate.

Anyone selling now because of low dividends is a fool. Everyone who knows anything about this company has been expecting dividends to dwindle to basically nothing until the new hardware arrives. No surprises there. When dividends are being paid on 4 blocks found, you know random luck can make a huge difference up and down as well.

If you want to sell because you buy into the FUD being spread and are just scared FC won't deliver, by all means, sell. I am sure there are lots of believers who would love to buy cheaper shares.
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Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [NEW] The REAL Altcoin
by
Xu
on 01/02/2014, 01:16:53 UTC
Big Vern told me he is adding this to Cryptsy tomorrow.
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Topic
Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 30/01/2014, 00:59:07 UTC
Interesting, a late announcement made late tape out a great news. Is there anything new in the announcement? Great strategy.

Yes, there was plenty new. Follow the link on Friedcat's post to see the specs on the new chips, and the hoard of people excited about it that posted on the thread and want to buy those chips. That is what has gotten everyone excited, not a late tapeout.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 03/01/2014, 16:10:19 UTC
Methinks Mabsark is upset  he missed the under 0.30 boat.

The goal has long been to get 10% of the network. FC can do it. He has the technology, the resources, the facilities, and is the only one with a plan for what the market will look like in 4 months. At 10% of the network, that would support a share price of 1 btc assuming a 30% annual ROI from dividends alone. Hardware sales can boost it up much higher. This stock is a great long term bet. I just wonder why the move now, today. Inside information? FC has been known to drop good surprises on us.

My best theory is that when the price didn't plummet after the last dividend round with such crappy dividends, people on the sidelines decided that finally we reached bottom and started buying back in. If so, then we just found our support level and are solid until gen3 is released.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 03/01/2014, 13:35:49 UTC
Over 0.40 now. I don't get it. Worse dividends ever, no hope of anything better for weeks. Stock jumps up 50%.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 11/12/2013, 17:27:00 UTC
prediction 0.00134718

Not much of a prediction after funds have already been moved to the dividend address...that is the exact same number I got.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 11/12/2013, 01:41:58 UTC
Already priced in that ridiculously low shareprice. That's why prices go up.

0.3 BTC/share @ $1000 USD/BTC, with 400,000 shares:

0.3 * $1000 * 400,000 = $120M

Obviously this company is undervalued  Roll Eyes

At 2-20ph people have calculated that this would allow AM to reach 10% of the network hashrate or 1btc/share.

I know you are being sarcastic but $120m is still a low evaluation considering that last years profits were twice that.

Nobody is questioning last year's performance, it was great. The question is how it will do in the future. Gen2 utterly failed. While I have great hope for Gen3, we have to factor in that it could just as easily fail as well. We won't know if it succeeds or fails for months, and in the meantime, wall we have to look forward to is dismal dividends and no provable progress. And of course we are all trusting some Chinese guy who won't even reveal his real name. So, yeah, there are some major risk factors.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 07/12/2013, 03:44:29 UTC
Seriously, what company on the planet has the CEO making announcements daily or even weekly. I wonder if some of you have ever held stock in any other company ever. Everyone knows communications should be better, but don't be expecting an announcement from FC over every dip in the stock price. I want him focused on GEN3 and the long term prospects.

For what it matters, here is my idea of perfect communications:

1) Every time a dividend is released, there is a brief announcement of what the composition of the dividend is. x from mining, y from franchising, and z from hardware sales. That's about it. Maybe if we were expecting something more a brief mention like "no dividends paid on hardware sales due to whatever".

2) Once a month have board meetings and let the board ask questions, and someone from the board can then post a summary of the meeting.

If we got that much communication, we would have better communications than pretty much any other company.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 05/12/2013, 22:22:20 UTC
I think pierrejo is trying to show that KNC has superior hardware. He is right. So what?

No company is going to have 100% of the market, not matter how great their hardware. KNC is selling to people who want to put up pretty big money to have bigger machines. ASICMiner is selling much cheaper machines. There is plenty of room in the market for both. All ASICMiner needs to do is to attain 10% of the total hash, which they should "easily" be accomplished with gen3 hardware, assuming it doesn't fail. (I am sure FC might dispute the word "easily" Tongue). The other goal of ASICMiner is to sell out all the hardware it puts up for sale. So far ASICMiner has succeeded, with the exception of the gen2 setback.

KNC miner is a fine company with their own place in the market, but that in no way diminishes ASICMiners prospects.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 05/12/2013, 16:30:01 UTC
Doesn't look like this will have any direct effect on AM whatsoever. As an indirect effect, Chinese financial institutions are forbidden from exchanging bitcoins, so it will probably slow down the acceptance of bitcoin in China, so we may start seeing less demand for bitcoins in China which may depress the bitcoin price. As far as AM's mining and hardware sales go, there is absolutely no limits or issues.
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Board Securities
Re: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It
by
Xu
on 04/12/2013, 19:13:00 UTC
Does anyone know if the aim of the company is still to maintain 10% of the hashpower of the network? And if it is, is there a plan to get there?

At 10% of the network hashrate, we'd be looking at mining income of 0.0063 btc/share until the reward halves in 2017.

I did the same math: 10% hashrate and mining income of 0.0063 btc/share. It is unknown how franchising plays into this (will franchises add to that 10%, or does 10% include the franchisees?), hardware sales are likely to add to this number, at least in the near term, plus there are some other possible business opportunities that might be explored in the future.

The plan to getting to 10% is unchanged. Gen2 was supposed to keep us at 10% between now and Gen3, but Gen2 failed. Now all our hopes rest on Gen3. If it fails, we are looking at a drop to IPO price or worse. If it succeeds, stock price should end up around 1 btc if all we have is mining dividends. Much higher if there are lots of additional revenues. For instance, if franchise revenues = mining revenues plus an equal amount in hardware sales, a share price of around 3 btc might be warranted, assuming share price sticks to the roughly 30% yield on shares.