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The only way to calculate the value of Bitcoin is by supply+demand - like for the vast majority of other commodities. In this moment the demand driven by the hope for the price to be higher exceeds by a lot the demand of Bitcoin for other uses (including investment, Darknet purchase, international transfers of value, etc.).
sorry but how hope for price to be higher is different than investment? and yet you those two are putting in opposite camps? people are buying bitcoin treating it as investment and because others are closing its investment the price goes lower so how is that a bubble? to me its normal behaviour of unregulated stock and not a bubble.Investors are less akin to undertake a big risk, so they ideally buy when the price is stable and plan to hold for X years until a certain goal is reached. I will give you a practical example: I invested in Bitcoin when it was at around $13, which was a price that held for a long time. Now there are no investors looking to spend money on Bitcoin, at least no "serious" investors, because they know the price is currently overvalued. As soon as Bitcoin becomes again a good investment (<$50) more money is expected to be thrown at Bitcoin.
Speculators are more gamblers, they are into high-risk, quick-profit trades, and if the gamble go wrong, they just close their position ASAP - wash, rinse and repeat.
You start off talking about your position -- which is fine. However you then go on to make assertions about "serious" investors and what they "know". Do you have data on this?
Now testing the bears' will.
Who will crack before $100 and buy back?
Who will crack before $100 and buy back?
Huh? Any chance you are doing it wrong? Buying back is what people should crack and do... yesterday.
Selling is what you do when the price goes up.
We will see dumps.
The problem is not the dumps, it is how people respond to the dumps.
If someone dumps on their own, and people don't panic and follow, it is the dumper's loss.
The problem is not the dumps, it is how people respond to the dumps.
If someone dumps on their own, and people don't panic and follow, it is the dumper's loss.
that makes no sense. miners make bitcoin not USD. so how will they put profits into bids?
Yeah, I don't get it now.. Do they hold?It doesn't need to be this complicated. Price fixing is enough if your group is large enough.
Please be careful everyone, more discussion here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=248249.40
Re: Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test
Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)
Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest. And illegal, I might add.
The platform is not involved and the profit comes from trading commission.
If you think the price is abnormal, you may play arbitrage.
I'm sorry, but this looks very suspect. You have a gross conflict of interest.
You've posted this topic in 3 places across the forum. It's either for marketing, or a confidence trick. In my opinion there is a high chance it is a con.
First of all, there is a reason that I, Vokain, and others in your other threads have raised our concerns. It is very improper to see the boss of a "futures exchange" predict the price.
Currently your predictions are in line with general market expectations, and so it is easy to attempt to win over confidence this way.
However you have a *lot* of deposited BTC at your disposal. At any point in the future, you can use this to move MTGox against your predictions and force-liquidate any big players. The part that really sucks is that you could use people's own BTC to bet against them. I really don't like the look of this one bit.
Any futures site could do this, but there are two factors that make you stand out as being untrustworthy:
(1) you seem too eager to "predict" the price to your "followers" (and describe the predictions so reverentially)
(2) There is no true way to arbitrage against you in both directions, as you can only deposit/withdraw bitcoins at your site, not CNY or USD.
If I am wrong, and this is just marketing, then it is bad marketing.
As an aside, to address your response: I don't believe that your platform doesn't participate in trades. The 12k+ daily volume coming within under a month on a "futures" exchange is highly suspect. I believe many exchanges are guilty of this, but there is no way to prove this.
Furthermore, true "arbitrage" is difficult when it seems that one can only deposit and withdraw BTC (not fiat) at your exchange. The way you have the market set up, it is practically impossible for me to bet against you and win, if I believe you are a scammer. You hold all the cards, and have all the information.
Re: Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test
Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
You do realise that this is illegal in Hong Kong, right? Have you browsed the HKSRC rulebook?
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
Hi there,
Mr. Zhu just wants to share his views.
Some friends may take it as reference for Bitcoin investment and the fact is lots of users indeed take profit.
He doesn't invest on his own platform, because he thinks that may bring bad effects.(some people may think he is manipulating.)
Of course it is manipulating. How is it anything else? You can either go into the TA business, or operate a market. Doing both is a massive conflict of interest. And illegal, I might add.
WTF? Proof that Operation Earnest Voice is a waste of time... there are enough forum trolls to ruin a forum without government intervention.
Maybe that's why Coinseeker posts less these days.
Maybe that's why Coinseeker posts less these days.
Re: Bitcoin market trend analysis- so far the most reliable through 2-month test
Oh look... "Mr 796" (who -- let's drop the pretense -- is probably you, ZhuRong), is releasing forecasts in an attempt to influence his own futures market. Isn't this a bit brazenly unethical? One would think you would at least go to some lengths to hide what you are doing.
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
I'm sure this is all fun and games for your users -- a gambling site on which you can't lose! Until....
Even if that is not your plan, it certainly looks like it.
Funny that the "trend analysis" is "the most reliable". Who would have expected that?
Furthermore... the "stocks"... which you issue (for free!) and (it seems) plan to trade on your own market? Will people fall for that? Are people actually that naive?
Again, even if your intentions at the outset are good, you should not be putting yourself in this position (and your users should be aware of the great danger they are in).
My standard password + My throwaway password (backwards, all caps) + &#$%@ + First two sentences of first paragraph of page 19 of my favorite book (include all capitalization and punctuation) + My wife's mother's middle name + My son's favorite superhero + My favorite number times 8734 + food my wife hates (backwards, all caps) + 9-digit number stored with my paper will + 10-character password stored in my safety deposit box + . . . .
Seriously? Is this sticky still relevant? If this is the recommended security procedure then bitcoin will never get adopted widely.
And if it's not still relevant, change the sticky, you'll scare newbies away.
More relevant than ever. Don't be flippant about security of anything regarding money -- especially bank logins or bitcoin wallet details.