If the 5th wave was the retest of the highs, how are we still bullish?

Are we back to Wave #1?

I don't really get your wave counts either.

So the best time to buy looks like Thurs/Fri/Sat on average since they have a low probability of it closing up since 1/1/2013.

Thanks for the info and data, sir.

we're consolidating very bullishly in an ascending triangle formation just below $850 right now on stamp, and my calculations anticipate a breakout within the next 18 hours, give or take [edit: in 18 +/- 9 hours]. we still have a lot of volatility to work through after the panic selling we saw yesterday, so i'd be surprised if we stay within that range until Monday.

Breakout up or down?

nothing's for sure, of course, but my money's on up.

edit: i phrased the timing incorrectly, so allow me to clarify. breakout in 18 +/- 9 hours.

of course, i do also see a possible larger consolidation pattern that would coincide with the OP's claim of staying within the range until about Monday, but my model is predicting something a little messier than that.

What gives me faith, though, is that the bitcoin market did not budge at all, and in fact went UP after the LR press release.

I think some of the rewards that you and many others have reaped is because of the significant risk that was undertaken.

So you react to the confiscation threats of a cash strapped government by transferring your assets into a highly confiscable form.

Makes sense 

I'm not sure about the OP, but I'm guessing he is in the same boat as me. By that I mean, he invested very little early on with an amount that he was comfortable losing. But now, that small amount is a lot more money at risk, even if bitcoin is actually less risky now.

My first bitcoin purchase was 500 coins when bitcoin was at $10. $5k wasn't too much to lose if bitcoin completely collapsed and I thought there was a fairly slim chance of that ever happening. Honestly, I was super happy when that $5k turned into $6k in a couple of months. I figured if I could make a couple of grand off of it, that was great. But now those 500 coins are now worth $65k (and I've since acquired many more) and that is a significant amount of money to have in one very risky asset. To put things in perspective, let's say you have $50k in your retirement fund and invest $5k in bitcoins. That's just 1/10 of what you've saved for retirement. But now, 6 months later your retirement fund is probably not much more than the $50k they were were before and your bitcoins are worth way more! Time to sell and rediversify.

So in a post a few weeks ago about Bitcoin when Mt Gox (the largest USD>BTC exchange) had it’s Dwolla (the intermediary for US bank accounts dollars to reach Mt Gox) account siezed by Homeland Security I abated the fears of anyone reading (and my own) with the logic that this was not the end.  However, as more actions by United States agencies begin to unfold I have adopted more conservative risk management in regards to Bitcoin.  The risk I am specifically trying to avoid is my assets both USD and BTC within the system being locked, frozen, or lost.  Any number of these have been at risk of happening in the “Wild West” economy Bitcoin represents.  I have always held the notion that anything and everything I have in BTC could be gone in an instant (just as a portion of my holdings vanished in a Solid State hard drive crash… yes, I knew you could back up your wallet I was just careless).  I still want to trade it for fun and proof of concept that it is a financial instrument but I have been given pause by current events.

This week I have seen a string of news:

May 28: Justice Department unseals indictment against Liberty Reserve: Liberty Reserve was one of the first ways to get money to Mt Gox.  I remember setting up an account but did find the whole thing a bit shady.  I was much more impressed with Dwolla being US based and used them as my primary funding source instead when they became available.  This indictment was the result of the probe into the Gulf Bank hacking from last December where the criminals involved were using Liberty Reserve to launder the money.  The terminology of the indictment specifically noting the Justice Department’s focus on “digital currency” hits home to Bitcoin.

May 28 – OKPay Suspends Money Services to Mt Gox: I can only assume that OKPay wanted to preserve their other business interests and upon news of the Dwolla seizure made the decision voluntarily.  Notice how the authorities went after the largest funding source on the largest Bitcoin Exchange first… and then the others begin to fall in line.

May 29: The US Justice Department forces Switzerland to change it’s laws on account disclosure: Desperate times call for desperate measures; i.e., our national debt burden is leading the government to go hunting under every crack for some additional tax revenue.  No more is it to be allowed that a US citizen can hide their assets from the IRS in Switzerland.  The Justice Department made it clear to Swiss banks that doing so would put you out of business like Wegelin & Co.  That pressure was enough for another nation to change it’s laws just to serve US.  Notice again; the authorities went for the oldest company.  The point is always to maximize prosecutorial effect.  See also; Martha Stewart.

What this demonstrates to me is that the US government feels entitled to know about every penny it’s citizens posses and exchange to prevent criminal activity and enforce taxation.  Bitcoin, while not yet specifically mentioned, has to be within their crosshairs by now.  There is a very vocal libertarian, crypto-anarchist, black market economist, etc. crowd of people that want to believe they can resist these authorities within Bitcoin but the Lead Developer of Bitcoin was quoted at this year’s Bitcoin conference when asked about government interference:

I think if the U.S. government decided that Bitcoin was a bad thing and told me, “Stop doing what you’re doing,” I’d stop doing what I’m doing, quite frankly. But that wouldn’t be very effective, because there are people all over the world who could pick up and reimplement it, for example in different programming languages; if you browse the Bitcoin forums you’ve seen the enormous chaos and energy there. There’s all sorts of people doing all sorts of things—many of them crazy things that will never succeed, but some of those will be the next big things in Bitcoin.
The first part initially struck me as “wow, what a wuss.”  Then again, one wouldn’t expect passionate martyrdom from a computer programmer.  He admitted that he would cave to even the slightest pressure but knew his departure would not be the functional end of Bitcoin.  Certainly the more anarchistic hackers in the community would take up the project.  His statement doesn’t give me much confidence.  It would be like hearing the COO of a company in which I held stock saying “if I get a letter with harsh words I am going to quit immediately.”

I believe that a parallel can very accurately be drawn between Bitcoin and the history of Peer 2 Peer file sharing.  Bitcoin is based upon a P2P idea and system that fundamentally changes and arguably threatens conventional methods of financial exchange just as P2P file sharing changed the game for intellectual property distribution.  I was amazed the other day to walk into a renovated movie theater to see a server room prominently enclosed in glass in the middle of the lobby.  The manager explained to me that movie production studios provide downloads of digital copies of movies, store them on the servers, and play them digitally through projector across the theater.  There is no need to pay a projectionist’s salary to run the reels nor make and ship several 50 pound metal boxes of expensive chemical film to every theater which can cost up to $5000 each.  File sharing has evolved into real cost savings for the industry that tried to destroy it; just as they tried to destroy VHS in the 80′s.  Governments and financial institutions may one day embrace Bitcoin but not before they exhaust every legal recourse to destroy it for what it represents: change.

So what am I doing?  I am liquidating most of my BTC holdings now on CampBx and transferring them to my USD bank account through Dwolla.  Though I met the owner of CampBx, which is based in Atlanta, there is no guarantee that it will remain immune to being shut down.  In which case any BTC I have on their servers may be lost.  Dwolla may also one day stop any transactions going to Bitcoin exchanges.  In which case I would have to find someone to trade cash in person for BTC.  Either way would represent worst case scenarios and I am limiting such downside risk.  I will still keep a small portion of BTC for novelty in a BACKED UP digital wallet on my own private secured server.  If the climate becomes more hospitable then I’ll jump back in but for now closing out at $130 which is half of the all time high of $266 sounds like a good exit.

Did you study markets before entering, or did you learn by first trading then developing a knowledge base for future trading?

Bitcoin is my first venture into the trading/investment world, and I would like to extend into trading on the stock market after at least a year or two of this.

I've found bitcoin to be a great entry point because it holds my interest since I'm an IT at heart.

But I too would like to quit my IT day job and migrate into day trading

Elections on 2012. Obama wants the Fed to inflate to create a mini-bubble and give the impression that the economy is improving so he can use it during the campaign.

Nixon did the same with Arthur Burns and the USA then went into stagflation: http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.20.4.177