Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Sunday May 11

Prediction valid for: Sunday 2014-05-11, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2823 CNY
Bitstamp's predicted price: 456 USD

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-10-prediction-check-HUBI-annotated.jpg

http://www.ic.unicamp.br/~stolfi/temp/2014-05-10-prediction-check-BSTP-annotated.jpg

[ Plot legend ]

The data point for today May/10 was very good (S = 0.0018, W = 0.939) but again way off the assumed trend.  We must abandon the previous trend, and assume a new straight-line trend fitted by weighted least squares to the last three points (the second one, May/09, having nearly zero weight).  Namely, A + B*(d-d0), where (d-d0) is the number of days since May/08, A = 2743.57, B = +26.48.

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, taken to be 6.19 CNY/USD.  Its value was 6.17 today (May/10), and 6.21, 6.21, 6.16, 6.23, 6.18 on the previous good sample times.
 
Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Satuday 2014-05-10, 03:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Satuday 2014-05-10, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~16 hours later)

Foiled again again by the treacherous Chinese:

Huobi's predicted price: 2739 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 2796 CNY
Error: 57 CNY (~9 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 441 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 453 USD
Error: 12 USD
 
NOTE: Evaluation of the Chinese Slumber Method coming soon. Prepare to laugh.

Within a few days we'll be over 520.00  New highs on the mid term horizon.

They have already put the company address in the fiat deposit page.

However, that address probably is just a proxy address (some sort of proxy secretarial service, you may think of a virtual office). No staff of Bitfinex would be working there as their real physical office should be in somewhere outside Hong Kong.


So, is it really important to put the company address info online?

Their https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/tos clearly states that "you agree to abide by any relevant laws in your jurisdiction, including reporting any trading profits for taxation purposes". This means that you must take personal responsibility and report your trading profits to your local tax authority. They will not do this for you, you must do it yourself.

Trading profits are subject to your local capital gains tax. This means that you must pay the capital gains tax on your trading profit - just like you would if you were trading EUR/USD. You can also deduct any losses you had. All that money you obviously had at MtGox when they closed down would, for example, be a deductible loss. You agree to comply with your local tax laws in the Bitfinex TOS.

It also says that "Suspicious transactions will result in a Suspicious Activity Report being submitted to the relevant regulatory and compliance bodies applicable in the registered members' verified country of origin.". This means that you will be reported if you are the money launderer who is doing the suspicious transactions. You also agree to this in their TOS.

Your question indicates that you do not want to follow your local fascist governments laws. That would be against Bitfinex TOS and you should not use it if that is the case.

Hi there,

Bitstamp have been all bitchy about KYC questionaires etc lately aswell as implenting the mandatory verification process not a long time ago. Maybe it's just pressure from banks.
But what happens with this information?

1) Does Bitstamp send the statistics/cashflow information of my account to the tax authorities in my country (EU)?
If yes, what sums $$?

2) I was wondering if it's 100% safe to request an withdraw to a bank located in Hong Kong, without being exposed by Bitstamp to the taxman where I live.

I know Bitstamp is not a bank but they almost act like one. Need to be 100% sure on this.

Hope you guys can help me out!
Thanks in advance

ps. I will never go near BTC-E, don't even suggest it

relax they grew 10 fold in business practically overnight - very difficult for anyone to plan for.

they already said 2 week delays on withdrawals which seems reasonable at this moment.  Once the BTC price calms down and levels for a while MTgox will have a chance to get things up to speed. Out of all the exchanges i feel safest with them im certain.