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Showing 3 of 3 results by alia_alt2
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Re: Can you still believe aTriz words? Reopened, too many open questions
by
alia_alt2
on 09/03/2018, 11:05:09 UTC
Incorrect, nice guess though. Wait for tomorrow

On win you keep betting 1 bit at 1.08x.

On loss you're beting 4, 20, 100 bits at 1.25x - trying to get the lost bit back. There is no magic there. Same fallacy.

How big is your bankroll?

Not very. And yes, no magic - just calculated risk. It is almost guaranteed that by tomorrow my profit will be 0.01-0.02 BTC higher than it is today. I am saying this openly and in public, and the proof is in the link I gave. Just see for yourself.

To make 0.02 BTC at 0.08 bits per bet you're gonna need > 200k winning bets.

And if your bankroll is 1 BTC you have about a 1/100k chance to go bust.

Is that your "calculated risk"?

I have already made more than 0.02 BTC, and my bankroll is much, much lower than 1 BTC. Yet I have not gone bust... hmm... hmmmmmmmmm
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Re: Can you still believe aTriz words? Reopened, too many open questions
by
alia_alt2
on 09/03/2018, 10:49:11 UTC
It's not ban evasion, it's a ban appeal. I think I have been wrongfully banned and I'm appealing theymos's decision.

25. If you get banned (temporary or permanently) and create a new account to continue posting / sending PMs, it's considered ban evasion. The only exception is creating a thread in Meta about your ban.

Oh, sorry. I didn't read that. Apologies, people were acting very misinformed and I was itching to correct them... I'll go make a thread in Meta
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Re: Can you still believe aTriz words? Reopened, too many open questions
by
alia_alt2
on 09/03/2018, 10:18:17 UTC
Script
Code:
var config = {
  baseBet: { value: 100, type: 'balance', label: 'base bet' },
  payout: { value: 1.08, type: 'multiplier' },
  stop: { value: 1e2, type: 'balance', label: 'stop if bet >' },
  loss: {
    value: 'increase', type: 'radio', label: 'On Loss',
    options: {
      base: { type: 'noop', label: 'Back to base bet, noob' },
      increase: { value: 2, type: 'multiplier', label: 'Increase bet by' },
    }
  },
  win: {
    value: 'base', type: 'radio', label: 'On Win',
    options: {
      base: { type: 'noop', label: 'Return to base bet' },
      increase: { value: 1.02, type: 'multiplier', label: 'Increase bet by' },
    }
  }
};


log('Script is running..');

var currentBet = config.baseBet.value;

// Always try to bet when script is started
engine.bet(currentBet, config.payout.value);

engine.on('GAME_STARTING', onGameStarted);
engine.on('GAME_ENDED', onGameEnded);

function onGameStarted() {
  engine.bet(currentBet, config.payout.value);
}

function onGameEnded() {
  var lastGame = engine.history.first()

  // If we wagered, it means we played
  if (!lastGame.wager) {
    return;
  }

  // we won..
  if (lastGame.cashedAt) {
    if (config.win.value === 'base') {
      currentBet = config.baseBet.value;
    } else {
      console.assert(config.win.value === 'increase');
      currentBet *= config.win.options.increase.value;
    }
    log('We won, so next bet will be', currentBet/100, 'bits')
  } else {
    // damn, looks like we lost :(

    if (config.loss.value === 'base') {
      currentBet = config.baseBet.value;
    } else {
      console.assert(config.loss.value === 'increase');
      currentBet *= config.loss.options.increase.value;
    }
    log('We lost, so next bet will be', currentBet/100, 'bits')
  }

  if (currentBet > config.stop.value) {
    log('Was about to bet', currentBet, 'which triggers the stop');
    engine.removeListener('GAME_STARTING', onGameStarted);
    engine.removeListener('GAME_ENDED', onGameEnded);
  }
}

For anyone not familiar with the code, what this script does is the following:

Bets 1 bit at x1.08.
If you lose, doubles the bet, still at x1.08.
If you win, returns to the base bet of 1 bit.
Repeat

There are additional options to change the max bet and tweak the multipliers, but the script will run as above unless changed.

It is laughably simple. It is just Martingale, but even worse since you don't even recover your losses after a run of reds (x1.08 multiplier rather than the usual x2). At a 1.08 multiplier, with a success rate of 91.67%, you are making an average profit of (0.9167*0.08)-([1-0.9167]*1)=-1%. Over the long term, you will then run in to the problem of any Martingale with exponentially increasing losses.

In my personal opinion, to claim that this is worth 50BTC is nothing short of delusional. The most impressive thing is the amount of forum activity she has created surrounding a script that could be written by a middle-schooler, and equally proved to be worthless by a middle-schooler.

This is incorrect. I gave specific values to aTriz to plug into the script (1.08x is correct but some other values are supposed to be changed, the 2x is supposed to be much lower and every 1 hour you are supposed to change some values). Luckily he didn't leak all of that.

And here is a prettier version of the script,
Code:

let initialBettingValues = {
  baseBet : 0.0000001,
  baseChance : 91.851,
  firstLossMultiplier : 4,
  lossMultiplier : 5,
  lossChance : 79.360
}
let nextBet = initialBettingValues ? initialBettingValues : "0"
let chance = baseChance ? baseChance : "0"

doBet =(win,currentStreak,previousbet)=> {
  if(win){
  nextBet = initialBettingValues.baseBet
  chance = baseBet
  } else if (currentStreak === -1){
  //First Loss
  nextBet = previousbet * firstLossMultiplier
  } else {
  nextbet = previousbet * lossMultiplier
  }
  chance = lossChance
}

I've also been watching her betting history and can confirm this is exactly the new script she is using. The only differences are you calculated the base chance and loss chance incorrectly. Accurate values are base chance = 0.99/1.08 = 0.9167 and loss chance = 0.99/1.25 = 0.792.

This, as previously, is just another modified Martingale. This one at least recovers your losses after a run of reds, but has the same problems as any Martingale, in that bets grow exponentially on a run of losses, leading to rapid bankruptcy.

You are right. However, it completely depends on your bank roll. If you have a BR of 1000 BTC and you run the script with 1 bit at a time, the chances of you ever going bust are nearly zero. You cannot possibly know the odds of me going bust without knowing my BR.

Side note: @theymos you banned me for doxing, but all I did was post the name of aTriz, which was already plastered all over the forum by him. It's not a dox if it's public info made available by him. Please clear this up