I will make an outlandish guess. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in a year's time. Perhaps I will update then.

We will see a spike in price after the halving, followed by volatile waves of selling and buying and the mother of all short squeezes. If - and I don't know if this is possible - but if the price can consistently rise and stay between $1200-$3000 USD for at least 2 fiscal quarters - let's say to Thanksgiving? -  we will see 'explosive percolation' - there will be such liquidity and price stability that we will see an increase in fiat flowing into and through bitcoin from various sources which will cause demand to increase and shoot up to perhaps $10K-$50K-$100K in a surprisingly short period of time (yes, BurtW, I know your model says it can't go that high this soon, I respectfully disagree .

I'd expect this to be led by, say, FX currency traders using BTC as a hedge for their trades (the FX market is measured in the trillions of USD), or the BTC supply curve being rapidly recalculated by 'Mr. Market' after first the halving and then the Lightning Network launch. These events will in turn force coins off exchanges and out of the hands last people who'd be willing to trade at $3000 per BTC, and we all realize just how many coins won't sell for that price (or presumably any price) because they're inaccessible/lost/in hands of people who will never sell. That recalculation of both supply and demand will in turn kicks off the FOMO train, and the dumb money will flood in.

The road to $10K and beyond lies through a sprint to to the $1200-$3000 range after the halving. Hang on to your butts, things are juuuuuust about to get interesting.

From gbianchi's last post (he makes these regularly):

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
block#  346488  06/03/2015               num  %noOut   %dead   %of tot %of act  diff prev           value  %noOut  %vdead   %TotVal       diff prev
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
= 0                                 62633417   0.00%   0.00%  93.5626%             125855         0.00000   0.00%   0.00%   0.0000%         0.00000
= 1 satoshi (0.00000001 BTC)          424786  36.84%   8.43%   0.6346%   9.86%         15         0.00425  36.84%   8.43%   0.0000%         0.00000
> 1 satoshi <= 0.001 BTC  ( ~1$ )    1802268  75.19%  14.96%   2.6923%  41.82%       2132       418.44983  69.64%   4.39%   0.0030%         0.34730
> 0.001 BTC <= 0.1 BTC               1374072  68.02%   4.87%   2.0526%  31.89%      -3121     28932.13841  71.18%   7.27%   0.2080%       -90.78105
> 0.1 BTC <= 1 BTC                    393208  69.18%   5.30%   0.5874%   9.12%       -108    171729.77427  73.57%   7.08%   1.2346%         7.73250
> 1 BTC <= 5 BTC                      156615  68.06%   5.38%   0.2340%   3.63%        244    376669.06388  69.36%   5.75%   2.7080%       280.70164
> 5 BTC <= 10 BTC                      45309  70.22%   5.16%   0.0677%   1.05%        106    347625.01943  72.04%   5.23%   2.4992%       825.00472
> 10 BTC <= 25 BTC                     35885  68.78%   5.43%   0.0536%   0.83%         19    588449.97580  70.05%   5.65%   4.2306%        -2.61582
> 25 BTC <= 50 BTC                     52567  90.82%  69.66%   0.0785%   1.22%         -7   2412077.44158  92.88%  75.44%  17.3412%      -602.56042
> 50 BTC <= 75 BTC                      5551  68.15%  12.23%   0.0083%   0.13%         18    331829.18959  67.82%  11.08%   2.3856%      1162.22146
> 75 BTC <= 100 BTC                     7461  83.77%   5.31%   0.0111%   0.17%         -4    708187.78653  84.72%   5.32%   5.0914%      -358.06960
> 100 BTC <= 500 BTC                    8551  67.20%   3.67%   0.0128%   0.20%         34   1815418.40323  67.65%   2.76%  13.0516%     10706.88586
> 500 btc <= 1000 BTC                   1609  75.82%   0.00%   0.0024%   0.04%         -5   1120607.34554  75.88%   0.00%   8.0564%     -3944.97798
> 1000 BTC                              1476  74.53%   0.00%   0.0022%   0.03%         -3   6007584.24205  68.60%   0.00%  43.1904%     -4283.87542
                  Total Actives      4309358  68.39%  10.30%   6.4374% 100.00%       -680  13909528.83410  74.31%  14.61% 100.0000%      3700.01320
                  Total             66942775   4.40%   0.66% 100.0000%             125175  13909528.83410  74.31%  14.61% 100.0000%      3700.01320

                  Transactions      61630417                                        93869


num      : number of addresses in this range of balance
%noOut   : percentage of active addresses WITHOUT out operations
%dead    : percentage of active addresses with input and output operations prior to 2012
%of tot  : percentage of the TOTAL number addresses
%of act  : percentage of the number of addresses with balance > 0 (active)
diff prev: number variation compared to the previous table
%noOut   : % value transactions WITHOUT output ( % value of range)
%vdead   : % operations value prev 2012 ( % value of range))
%TotVal  : % value of this range compared to the total value
diff prev: change in value compared to the previous table

donations : 17ykWbCHG6eMfLt42zCJVw5bZE1YxRMihL

So, there's about 23K addresses with > 50 BTC. You're in rare company.

nope