I created this on glassnode using onchain data. Only 3-4 signals till date but seems effective.

I break it down in my latest video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=scGCWlSwAQA&t=185s

If you use glassnode you can replicate this for your own use too.

i see many are sceptical of order book data. i should add that i combine it with the following: macro + liquidity, stock market movements, technical analysis, onchain data + my models created from them. the only time i use orderbooks in isolation is for intra day scalping. overall i use the books for short term and medium term. it is too unreliable for long term moves, and there are better sources for that anyway.

yes if you look at the video i have compared all the main exchanges and i also change the order size for each chart to make it more clear. this leaves only the orders that correlate with price reversals with support/resistance. most of the time price does reverse. occasionally the price can break through with volatility but with risk management this is not a problem

I am a long term investor, but i speculate aswell to maximise my accumulation. I'm sure there are many like me, not everyone being either an investor or trader only.

Good questions, that is not the conclusion i've come to at all. Combining many exchanges doing the same thing usually gives me strong confluence. The only thing i've found that counteracts my orderbook bias is either strong stock market moves and/or strong market buying/selling

Obviously some are spoofing, but that doesnt mean they dont work. Human nature is easy to manipulate, so the same patterns happen again and again including effective spoofing or other whale strategies. Like i said, combining all the exchanges usually provides a clearer possibility. Right now more are bearish than bullish

Lol its got nothing to do with what i think, i'm simply showing the orders and liquidity that affect and move price. Good for you if you want to DCA, its pretty obvious thats not what i'm talking about.

Looking at the orderbook, the whales are trying to push the price down, taking advantage of low liquidity during holiday times, especially on coinbase

My latest video goes through each exchange to see where and how the price is being pushed around

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x78YQP-FxyM

Those are not volume bars, but bid and ask orders placed, the colours are based on the size of order. smallest being blue then green, yellow, orange, red is biggest.

In simple terms volume is market orders, and this (orderbook) is limit orders

I've been bearish the last week or so, looking at the orderbooks primarily to show me where the whales want to push the price. Sometimes it could be spoofing, other times it can be legit selling or buying. Combining different exchange liquidity can help to give an overall picture. Here is my analysis on youtube should you wish to see it -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPdumALVaQk

The data before 2021 - some metrics do not have data going back further, so i only started from March 2021 as a result. The metrics that have data going further back still work.

Also i never said i was using this by itself, infact i even mentioned i was using it alongside other data.

Even so, there are enough ups and downs over the last 2 years to show that it is effective on multiple occasions in different scenarios

Hey guys, heres a quick update on the models, as of end of wednesday 21 december.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfiIFLpfGOo

The biggest sell sign came during FOMC last week when bitcoin topped at 18.4k. As you can see below the Stack Model had 4 out of 7 metrics signalling sell (the dotted red line - where 4 is the threshold to sell a % of the portfolio using that particular model). Combining with technical or order book analysis would have given confluence aswell.

I believe Altcoins with low trading volume and liquidity are the one you are describing on shitcoins which is true that this trading will not work since there’s no enough data for this indicator to use for creating a strategy.

I believe even on huge caps is still risky considering the FUD can happened on the specific project with just one allegation in the team like FTT and Luna which obviously can’t be avoided by using this tools.
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Did you look at the charts i posted above? All of the models had warning or sell signals before the Luna AND Ftx dumps

I will post for free on youtube for the next 6-12 months probably (maybe twice a week i will show the updated charts), so people can see how it works in real time and trust it.

It can be helpful for DCA to tell you when the market is over/under heated and there is a high chance of reversal (either bullish or bearish). Combining with other analysis (technical analysis or orderbooks) can give confluence.

I've created a youtube channel where i will post updates regarding the model and also for short term trading updates using orderbook analysis

Here's a video intro into the models i have created. This is all new for me so apologies if i sound amateur.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5b4inEJH5Nc

I will try to post chart updates here when i get the chance.

disagree, retail do have access to information, data from blockchain and other metrics are not expensive or difficult to find. retail would much rather follow scammers though, its their own fault. lets not place all the blame on whales; people are responsible for their own actions, nobody wants to be accountable, just rich quick

you need tradingview account, and then to search for what is listed in the top left corner

I've seen a lot of comments about finding signal groups and the like. Well i have something that actually works but isn't a pump and dump get rich quick scheme by some influencer. I'm using these for swing trading to accumulate more bitcoin for myself, but it should work for alts, crypto stocks, even possibly the stock market if the correlation continues to be strong.

I created these using onchain data from March 2021 to November 2022. There are 3 models i used together. The first uses eth data, the second btc data, and the third is a momentum/strength model using both eth and btc. For whatever reason eth data is more accurate for trading btc than btc data. Here they are:





I know there is alot of distrust in onchain data since 2021 because of poor onchain analysis or incorrect interpretation of analysis. But if you look at the above there is clearly something to work with here. So i backtested some strategies aswell to see what could be gained. For all 3 models i took a strategy of selling/buying 25% or 50% of the portfolio the day after a sell/buy signal (the signal for the 3rd model is when the green or red bars hit the dotted lines - may be hard to see here, essentially means 4 out of a possible 7 metrics are saying to buy/sell). Here are the results valued in both btc (for the purists) and in fiat $ dollar:




As you can see the first shows the growth of starting with 1 btc in March 2021 till November 2022. The worst performing strategy still returned 2.8 btc, with the average across all strategies at 4.83 btc.

In dollar terms, $1 returned anywhere between $1.06 (+6%) and $2.84 (+184%), with an average of $1.84 (+84%)

Compare this to buying and holding assets over this timeframe : S&P500 +7% / GOLD +2% / NASDAQ -7% / BTC -62%

I plan on using this going forward, and i believe it has given enough signals in both directions to work well in the future. If anyone is interested they can check out my website that i set up (it is subscription based)

https://www.bitcoindata21.com/

I will use this alongside other onchain metrics, orderbook analysis, macro, and sometimes technical analysis to derive even better results. This isn't built for day trading though ofcourse. If anyone has any comments, queries, or feedback, i'd be glad to answer.

i take a slightly different opinion to others. its not that good signals dont exist or everyone is a scammer.

the problem is that all of the groups that are well known are spread through word of mouth are really good at marketing themselves with promises about returns that cant exist. another way of looking at it is to see which bitcoin/crypto people have most followers on social media...its the ones who are good salesmen, NOT accurate salesman.

the signals that are worth following, get drowned out by all the fake/scam/rubbish influencer types. i say this from my short experience because i have been trying to spread the word about my models and strategies. no one listens, because i dont have 500,000 fake bot followers on twitter or collaborate with other scammers.

in short, only popular influencers signals sell, because they are popular, not because they are good

I do trading aswell in the short term, but your question is regarding investing - i am first and foremost an investor.

My plan is to accumulate bitcoin as much as i can.

For the long term i look at macro liquidity and general stock market sentiment. I also look at certain onchain data for bitcoin that coincides with the 4 year cycle. Even with this decade being so different, this has still worked.

Here is an image of M3 money supply of USA and Europe which shows strong correlation between bitcoin price and liquidity/fiat debasement that helps me for a zoomed out perspective.





Within this longer framework, i also use the volatility to accumulate. Other people like to dca consistently or buy dips, but I try to be more aggressive because i have constructed models with onchain data that allow me to have confidence to trade multi week or even multi month (some would call this swing trading). Here is an example of one of my models with backtesting.





In terms of short term trading, i dont focus on technical analysis simply because everyone else is, so less edge. I prefer to focus on orderbooks (which can also be useful for long term confluence for finding tops and bottoms)

Imo investing and trading are all about psychology and strategy. Intelligence might play a small part but it is not necessary. If you are the type who is good at solving problems you will probably produce a good strategy. The psychology part takes time and practice, aswell as life experience