...to celebrate the price gains.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT_aEKr0BVY

13Nb63jZssGXJinTQhTjoFAoyPbWhNCrpr

Thanks for everyone's input. I joined a singer-songwriter competition. Put a few in, which although they don't directly mention Bitcoin, deal with the economics behind it (Keynesianism, Economic Bubbles and governmental over-reach).

Check out the videos for all three songs (Keynes, Sands of Time and Spill the Water) here:

http://songwriter.amplifiertv.com/channel/13inlet

Thanks!

Hey thanks to all for checking it out. Glad you liked it.

I have a couple albums, actually. PM me and I'll email the albums to you free, if you agree to provide a small BTC tip if you enjoy a song or two on them (13Nb63jZssGXJinTQhTjoFAoyPbWhNCrpr). The albums were written prior to my interest in BTC though, so the songs aren't really related.

Actually, this song Got Hope kinda could be seen as a Bitcoin anthem I guess:

http://13inlet.com/track/got-hope

Lyrics:

They can’t take this away, away from me
It’s something I hid, Oh… I buried
Yeh, it’s lying at home, guarded on my inside
No one can steal what’s inside my mind…

I got hope. Inside.

Society likes to break things, including hope
They look for fear, they’ll try to expose it
But, I can always reach down, find my hope inside
Because they can’t destroy what they can’t divide…
Hope.

I got hope. Inside.

Frankl said, “what’s to give light, must endure burning.”
I say, “just like the earth, we can’t change without turning”
Yeh, minutes turn to days, got to start with me, with right now
I hope it adds things up past my human heartbeat countdown…
Hope.
I got hope. Inside.

They can’t take this away, away from me
It’s something I hid, Oh… I buried
Yeh, it’s lying at home, guarded on my inside
No one can steal what’s inside my mind…


Anyway, I'm working on a new album now that's more inline with interests of those who tend to enjoy BTC. Cheers!

Haven't been on in a while, but thanks for listening!

Trying to pinpoint inflation amounts is impossible because right now Bitcoin's value is really determined by the bilateral currency (i.e. The $US). If QE4 or 5 were to pop up around the corner, that will increase the supply of US$ a lot, making one dolloar worth less and making any fixed supply currency more valuable.... i.e. Bitcoin. Notice how since QE is slowing, Bitcoin's value has pretty much just flattened?

Basing inflation rates on the fundamentals of Bitcoin itself (without accounting for the US$ or the formalized fiat) is insane because Bitcoin hasn't been completely adopted (and won't be) and because it's value is still a function of other currencies.

Bitcoin's price is based on supply (which is fixed), demand (which is a function of both inflation in non-digital currencies and general acceptance and adoption). That's why modeling Bitcoin's price is actually quite possible.

Agreed. This is my fear. I don't think they are that stupid, so it very well may be a bigger plan.

I don't want to start a conspiracy theory or anything, but since we know very little to nothing about the originator, don't you think it could at least be "possible" (unlikely, but possible) that the government is somehow involved in the setting up of Bitcoin? I mean it's kinda uncanny that it began right around the biggest financial crisis in history. It's also odd that it could potentially lead to a solution to the underlying economic problem that started the crisis - leverage. All that said, I don't really believe the gov't was involved in Bitcoin's origin. I think it's unlikely, but possible. If I had to bet - I'd say it was a coincidence. But, at the very least, I do believe they (primarily the US gov't) are allowing it to flourish now because they know they can tax it for now, easily step in at any time, create their own alternative and at that point have a free infrastructure in place (via Bitcoin).

Don't get me wrong, even if any of this was true. I don't think this should stop anyone from supporting Bitcoin. What Bitcoin does is necessary. It's a necessary evolution.

In short, I am not worried at all about Bitcoin, regardless of who was behind it's origin. I'm worried about a desperate government (or world of governments) using it as a solution for it's own policy mistakes.

I'm from the US. I believe yes, there's a very good chance we will. Hence, the thread.

I suppose the main point of this thread is:

If it ever came to it, we supporters of Bitcoin should not support the government doing away with physical cash, nor should we see cash as a threat to crypto. Further, any crypto that uses bank-like principals and is supported by a central bank, should also not be supported by this community.

The main reason for both, at least as far as this thread is concerned, is negative interest rates. There's good reason to believe this is not just fanatical talk. If you really believe the Fed doesn't have a choice but to continue expanding the Money Supply, or believe they'd fall back in recession if they did really stop the expansion. Then the truth is even if they stop, they'll just  begin anew. If we also acknowledge government debt is growing out of control. There's reason to believe the government may need to obtain additional money quickly. Capital controls have already been used in other countries, now negative interest rates are being used. Are we asking why? Regardless of the answer, there's away around each - crypto and cash. One can be banned by country law, the other done away with in the name of "progress". Just a word of warning is all.

To play devil's advocate on Gresham's law, I see potential reasons this would fail:

1) It's assumed there needs to be a switch from cash to NewStrongCryptoDollars. That's not the case. The dollar would remain the dollar (in the sense it's still a dollar in your online bank account). Your checking, savings accounts would still be your checking or savings accounts. The paper dollar would be the change - it would no longer have value more than it's inherent worth as an artifact. The only difference would be the birth of the new crypto. I could see this happening "before" they make dollar bills worthless.

2) This law assumes a free-market. I'm pretty sure we're entering a period where freedom is being condensed.

3) This assumes people understand what's going on around them. Cryptocurrencies, why it matters, etc.

4) It's also assuming that the entire world economy would never do this in unison. I'm not so sure about that one either. At the very least, I think the ECB, BOJ, BOE and Fed have been very much on the same page.


On the other part, I'm not saying Bitcoin or it's Gov't-like crypto would preclude cash. It doesn't have to at all. My fear really has to do with cash itself. I think some don't see why cash has value in and of itself (at this time period in history) and I'm trying to spell out why it does. Bitcoin and cash living together is 100% good by me. I just don't think it's wise for us to support the destruction of cash in totality.

It's certainly a conspiracy theory, but I'm kinda hinting that this (negative interest rates) could have been the plan from central banks from the get-go. Bitcoin was created right around the Great Recession by umm... we don't know (kinda odd). It would be pretty genius if the central banks developed a method to grow acceptance of cryptocurrency outside government, do away with cash in order of "progress", only to later begin negative interest rate policy worldwide and begin the painful develeraging that will eventually need to occur.

This is certainly fear... no doubt. It probably won't happen. But, I'm just worried about it and I think the fear is kinda justified.  

Let me start by saying I'm a big supporter of Bitcoin. I like everything about it. I love the technology, how it's an alternative to fiat, etc. However, as a supporter, I've grown more and more dubious of its founding.

Even more recently, I've started to see more reason to fear how governments could use this technology in ways currently unforeseen. For example, let's just say governments convince the public of Bitcoin's merits as a replacement for cash, and decide to do away with cash. Let's say they institute their own crypto. The Fed, governments and the public moved towards a system similar to Bitcoin for cash-like exchanges. Maybe we even kept our non-cash, bank-related transactions as they are - digital. What becomes extinct under this scenario? Non-gov't sanctioned cryptos and cash.

To me this presents a very large problem and the problem is in regards to interest rates. As you may know, the ECB recently announced a negative interest rate policy. To many this seems straight-up confusing. So, you're charging people to save? Basically, yes.

The one defense against this is - cash. What do I mean? Well, cash can be put in your pocket or under your mattress and in a sense save your money (because the alternative is you losing money by putting it in a bank). You can't do this with digital cash stored in a bank under this scenario. Of course, one could argue that independent cryptocurrencies (as they currently are) would also be protection. But, I think my issue with that is, governments at large could ban them. Yes, whether we want to admit this or not, this is possible.

So, for example, the US gov't (and gov'ts like it) could create their own crypto, ban all "free" cryptos", do away with cash and institute negative interest rates - sucking out all monetary wealth to pay for it's ever-growing debt.

I'm probably reading too much into this, but this scares the crap out of me... please calm me down...

This song and others that have Bitcoin themes are mentioned in this article. Pretty cool:

http://coinchomp.com/2014/05/22/bitcoin-folk-music/

Well, that's why I made the thread to ask this question. I think a lot is known. For example, in my opinion, a small part of the reason the value is rising over time is due to Bitcoin's scarcity and alternative currencies supply expansion. So, not only is supply of Bitcoin known, but perhaps there's a proxy for M1 expansion too (if we're talking dollars).

Another variable that's known is "volume", for example.


I guess we disagree a bit here. I would say it's easier than Forex because it's not tied to an economy. While you believe being tied to a country simplifies things (because of data - don't get me wrong, I see your point), I use to model economies, and I believe being tied to a country can complicate things. Although more data may be available, the "right" data is not and it's not very reliable. Supply and velocity are largely unknown with domestic currencies because of cash. And the demand issue remains. Bitcoin solves the supply problem because it's quantifiable. In fact, I've created weighted exchange rate models in the past and I think this is quite similar. There's no reason to think that the variables for a simple OLS regression aren't available, which could be used to predict price. I know for sure it's tried in Forex markets. Anyway, if the results end up significant with a nice R-square and coefficients following logic, it's applicable.

And from there, that model could be used to predict alt coin prices in a top down simultaneous model.

So, back to what "other" variables we could use...

How would one obtain an aggregate on the amount of bitcoin-related news? I was thinking there has to be a source for how often "bitcoin" is searched daily or mentioned on twitter. But, I'm unaware of anything.

I agree that a large portion of the price is speculative. However, I consider Bitcoin's price to be more practical to forecast than ForEx currencies, particularly when you're looking to forecast in the short term. My main reason is the supply and many other factors are known and available. Because of this, all one really needs is what's going to drive demand or how to effectively measure that - quantitatively. 

OK. So, I would like to set up a forecast model for Bitcoin price. I have ideas on what independent variables impact the price, but I'd like to ask a crowd just in cast I'm missing something.

The model would like this:

Bitcoin's price (today or tomorrow) is a function of X1, X2, X3... Xn.

So, please chime in with the following what is your thought on an independent variable (X1) that impacts Bitcoin's price? Does the variable impact today's price, tomorrow's or both? Finally, and most importantly is the variable quantifiable and what is the source of the data? Why?

I'll give an example - X1 is Bitcoin's available supply. The available supply impacts today's and tomorrow's price. The available supply is quantifiable and the data source could be obtained from blockchain. Quantity supplied impacts price (or exchange rate) - basic econ 101.

Not sure if this a serious question or not. But, I'll try to take a crack at an answer...

Have you ever seen a street performer? Street musicians often perform live in the street with an open guitar case. People toss a few coins in if they like their music. This is a "tip". If not, the audience walk bye and do not "tip" the street musician.

This same logic can hold to someone sharing digital music. If one enjoyed the digital music, like the song I shared, they could "tip" the artist digitally with BTC. But, to do so, they'd need a place to send it. Hence, why I wrote in the BTC wallet address because one can send the tip there. 

Hope that helps.

Listen or download (free or whatever you want) here:

http://13inlet.com/track/cryptocurrency-bitcoin-song

Watch here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT_aEKr0BVY

Tips here: 

13Nb63jZssGXJinTQhTjoFAoyPbWhNCrpr

Been looking for this forever. Here's what I recommend - coinmarketcap.com has coins and http://coinmarketcap.northpole.ro/api/usd/all.json does a update of these. Yet, it's not what you're looking for because it's a program and doesn't store squat. 

What I've been doing is literally pulling it out of coinmarketcap. But, unfortunately, I'm not consistent. It's a shame that none of the bright minds here (I'm not a programmer) doesn't create a program off coinmarketcap to store the data. So much could be done in terms of analysis. With the little data this year I've pulled I've learned so much about what causes price alterations in these coins via panel regression.

Today, I've decided to post the entire model results (rather than a couple picks), so people get an idea of what's actually occurring behind the scenes. So, the price listed is the price that was modeled. It was obtained from coinmarketcap within the past hour of this post. I ran that last price through the model (using the other variables in the model as well) and out we receive a percentage for each coin. That percent is the predicted percentage gain over the next day. Here's the results: