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关注这两哥们啥时候回本
从4月23到6月23,算力增加了一倍。头两个月10G大概挖了20多币,不过产量也降了50%
再过两个月算力再翻倍,也就能挖10多币,如此这般不断的减产,而电费开销不变,这两位将没有回本可能。
持续关注此二人,终有骂娘的一天。
从4月23到6月23,算力增加了一倍。头两个月10G大概挖了20多币,不过产量也降了50%
再过两个月算力再翻倍,也就能挖10多币,如此这般不断的减产,而电费开销不变,这两位将没有回本可能。
持续关注此二人,终有骂娘的一天。
这两哥们开始哭没？
Re: Is this 1x to 16x riser pictured broken or pictured as designed?
Sure you need to solder the wire to the pcb. You only have one riser?
I bought this riser from Cablesaurus a while ago. Recently tried using it without any success.
My experience when plugging riser into a 1x slot & connecting molex to it:
cgminer didn't see the gpu. I have 1 other gpu directly on the MB/pcie16. cgminer saw the other gpu only.
Win7 device manager saw only an unidentified co-processor which I assume is this gpu.
( https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5qUFCCYd3cTM2J5MHk4bVVMQUE/edit?usp=sharing )
Picture here shows a loose ribbon wire NOT soldered onto the 16x pcb. Is this correct, or does it need soldering onto the vacant pin shown on the end of the pcb?
Also, I'm aware of a discussion regarding shorting pin A1 to pin B17 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=eghhg39gm2e8rp67p52qba3sj7&topic=36061.0).
I'm not clear from the thread whether this shorting is done by default at factory, or whether it needs to be done for SOME motherboards by miners, or whether it needs to be done for ALL motherboards by miners?
Thanks for guidance / clarification!
Rupert
My experience when plugging riser into a 1x slot & connecting molex to it:
cgminer didn't see the gpu. I have 1 other gpu directly on the MB/pcie16. cgminer saw the other gpu only.
Win7 device manager saw only an unidentified co-processor which I assume is this gpu.
( https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5qUFCCYd3cTM2J5MHk4bVVMQUE/edit?usp=sharing )
Picture here shows a loose ribbon wire NOT soldered onto the 16x pcb. Is this correct, or does it need soldering onto the vacant pin shown on the end of the pcb?
Also, I'm aware of a discussion regarding shorting pin A1 to pin B17 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?PHPSESSID=eghhg39gm2e8rp67p52qba3sj7&topic=36061.0).
I'm not clear from the thread whether this shorting is done by default at factory, or whether it needs to be done for SOME motherboards by miners, or whether it needs to be done for ALL motherboards by miners?
Thanks for guidance / clarification!
Rupert
Re: ► ► ► NOW ACCEPTING ORDERS FOR LEALANA PHYSICAL SILVER LITECOINS!
You can use Priority Mail + Signature confirmation + Insurance, or UPS + Insurance
Much cheaper.
OP states registered mail, signature required... go plug that in to USPS site. I found $25 for a test shipment to CA.
10 LTC = $24....and?
Zalfrin thanks for point that out.
Much cheaper.
Lol $30 for shipping when you are going to spend at max $6? And yes, insurance and signature required will be much less than $6, coming from someone who ships products both domesticly and internationally on a daily basis
OP states registered mail, signature required... go plug that in to USPS site. I found $25 for a test shipment to CA.
10 LTC = $24....and?
Zalfrin thanks for point that out.
中国人一来，比特币玩完。
如果公司们造矿机，一边自己挖矿，一边高价卖矿机，矿工们还玩啥。
老外公司似乎还没这么玩的。
如果公司们造矿机，一边自己挖矿，一边高价卖矿机，矿工们还玩啥。
老外公司似乎还没这么玩的。
我看近来有越来越多的英文帖子认为中国的矿机算力太惊人了。看看这篇，https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=247168.msg2622243#msg2622243，已经有人抱怨中国的ASICMINER的算力今年会达到800-1000TH。
虽然还没有人提出，但是我认为这是不可避免的，就是有人会以公平挖矿为借口，要求封锁所有来自于中国的算力。我的问题是，这样做技术上可能么？如果可能的话，我打算在美国开个矿场。
说句心里话，如果站在老外的立场上，我也不喜欢Asicminer。合着咱们几万几万的买矿机，最后贬值到一文不值，就陪各位老大玩了。
长此以往，最后只能是被抵制的局面。老外先不玩了，比特币就结束了。
虽然还没有人提出，但是我认为这是不可避免的，就是有人会以公平挖矿为借口，要求封锁所有来自于中国的算力。我的问题是，这样做技术上可能么？如果可能的话，我打算在美国开个矿场。
说句心里话，如果站在老外的立场上，我也不喜欢Asicminer。合着咱们几万几万的买矿机，最后贬值到一文不值，就陪各位老大玩了。
长此以往，最后只能是被抵制的局面。老外先不玩了，比特币就结束了。
1BTC买USB的肯定又跳脚了
具体的价格，策略请参考http://bbs.btcman.com/forum.php?mod=viewthread&tid=4451 根据计算，从现在开始挖矿的话，1G的运力只能带回2.8个.....
由于是7月10号之前定价格，发货在10号之后，到时候难度继续上一个台阶，所以我估计1G的运力只能带回2.5个BTC，在
1。考虑烤猫宣布年内部署1000T的算力，
2. Avalon 9月份芯片开始铺货
3. 蝴蝶60G已然开始发货
4. 还有一个Knc的黑马，28纳米技术。。。。
所以，我们这点小算力，5G的年内不能挣1个的BTC，再也没有机会挖回本了，所以我的心里价最多不能超过1.5B/G，年后的估计一天是0.0000几个，一年也就0.几个了。
大家看看
由于是7月10号之前定价格，发货在10号之后，到时候难度继续上一个台阶，所以我估计1G的运力只能带回2.5个BTC，在
1。考虑烤猫宣布年内部署1000T的算力，
2. Avalon 9月份芯片开始铺货
3. 蝴蝶60G已然开始发货
4. 还有一个Knc的黑马，28纳米技术。。。。
所以，我们这点小算力，5G的年内不能挣1个的BTC，再也没有机会挖回本了，所以我的心里价最多不能超过1.5B/G，年后的估计一天是0.0000几个，一年也就0.几个了。
大家看看
关注这两哥们啥时候回本
从4月23到6月23,算力增加了一倍。头两个月10G大概挖了20多币,不过产量也降了50%
再过两个月算力再翻倍,也就能挖10多币,如此这般不断的减产,而电费开销不变,这两位将没有回本可能。
持续关注此二人,终有骂娘的一天。
从4月23到6月23,算力增加了一倍。头两个月10G大概挖了20多币,不过产量也降了50%
再过两个月算力再翻倍,也就能挖10多币,如此这般不断的减产,而电费开销不变,这两位将没有回本可能。
持续关注此二人,终有骂娘的一天。
Re: [ANN] Ybcoin will be launched on 0:00 June 29th, 2013 (GMT+8)
挖矿进入ASIC时代，就以AVALON芯片大量发货为标志，
然后就应该遵循摩尔定律，也就是同样多的投入，18个月算力翻倍，
当然，有高利润的时候，投入会增加，算力也会增加，直到微利，投资就会稳定在那个水平。
AVALON芯片已经超额销售，也就是说，现有订单都变成矿机，就只有微利了，有些买家可能还会亏本。
然后就应该遵循摩尔定律，也就是同样多的投入，18个月算力翻倍，
当然，有高利润的时候，投入会增加，算力也会增加，直到微利，投资就会稳定在那个水平。
AVALON芯片已经超额销售，也就是说，现有订单都变成矿机，就只有微利了，有些买家可能还会亏本。
摩尔定律不适用吧，那是针对芯片计算性能。现在大家都等着矿机，芯片性能不增加，需求也在爆发，现在全网算力处于爆发的阶段。很多等着芯片造矿机呢。
感谢您的理解和支持，我觉的任何正常商业交易行为，都是在双方公平自愿基础上的行为。
交易以后卖家也有降价的权利和选择，不能把卖家绑架，不允许卖家降价，降价就谩骂和攻击的行为，是不理性的行为。
假如烤猫不降价，明年今日还有没有烤猫了都很难讲。
交易以后卖家也有降价的权利和选择，不能把卖家绑架，不允许卖家降价，降价就谩骂和攻击的行为，是不理性的行为。
假如烤猫不降价，明年今日还有没有烤猫了都很难讲。
问题是，即使是知道会出降价的货物，依然原价销售，并没有什么问题。哪怕是降价之后，依然原价销售，也没有问题（只不过可能没有人买）。这个不是销售伪劣产品，也不是强买强卖，也没有保险，所以完全取决于买家自己的心态。
本来算力在指数上升的时候，价格当然是指数下降了。所以降价50%毫无问题。
本来算力在指数上升的时候，价格当然是指数下降了。所以降价50%毫无问题。
降价没问题，但你们有提前告知客户么？降价前几天还忽悠着买刀片！我15号以35000不到的价格买了刀片，18号收到，到现在才1周。现在刀片价格还没出来，估计这两天出了幅度不会低于30~40%。这种生意就是一次性的！
现在39个USB矿机= 13GH/s，只要BTC0.99*39=BTC38.61，比你的刀片便宜30%多，呵呵
按这速度，1年半也回不了本
这是今年的难度增长表。
23-Jan-13 2,968,775 N/A
8-Jan-13 3,249,550 9.46%
5-Feb-13 3,275,465 0.80%
18-Feb-13 3,651,012 11.47%
1-Mar-13 4,367,876 19.63%
14-Mar-13 4,847,647 10.98%
24-Mar-13 6,695,826 38.13%
5-Apr-13 7,673,000 14.59%
30-Apr-13 10,076,293 31.32%
14-May-13 11,187,257 11.03%
25-May-13 12,153,412 8.64%
5-Jun-13 15,605,633 28.41%
16-Jun-13 19,339,258 23.92%
平均来说，这六个月来每周增长是超过8%的。
23-Jan-13 2,968,775 N/A
8-Jan-13 3,249,550 9.46%
5-Feb-13 3,275,465 0.80%
18-Feb-13 3,651,012 11.47%
1-Mar-13 4,367,876 19.63%
14-Mar-13 4,847,647 10.98%
24-Mar-13 6,695,826 38.13%
5-Apr-13 7,673,000 14.59%
30-Apr-13 10,076,293 31.32%
14-May-13 11,187,257 11.03%
25-May-13 12,153,412 8.64%
5-Jun-13 15,605,633 28.41%
16-Jun-13 19,339,258 23.92%
平均来说，这六个月来每周增长是超过8%的。
Let's do a simple calculation.
333MHash/s can make BTC0.12 per 14-day now. Assume the difficulty increases 13% each time (every 14-day).
You make BTC0.12*(1-0.885^26)/(1-0.885)=BTC0.9999 in one year (a geometric sequence with common ratio .885 and 26 terms). you can break even in one year if the difficulty increases slower.
Last two times, the difficult increases 28% and 24%.
...
333MHash/s can make BTC0.12 per 14-day now. Assume the difficulty increases 13% each time (every 14-day).
You make BTC0.12*(1-0.885^26)/(1-0.885)=BTC0.9999 in one year (a geometric sequence with common ratio .885 and 26 terms). you can break even in one year if the difficulty increases slower.
Last two times, the difficult increases 28% and 24%.
...
烤猫的Asic定价原理大致是这样的:
这些Asic机，如果他们自己挖上一年，可以赚多少， 就卖这个价。 直接把一年的收益先收了，又可省下一笔电费。
从定价来推算，他们预期的难度增长率大约是每周，6%。
如果每周难度增长率低于6%， 那买家就可得到少许油水。
如果每周难度增长率高于6%， 那买家就等于白白替烤猫打一年工。 亏了电费，也回不了本。
比特币难度两周涨一次，每次涨12%，基本一年白干。这些Asic机，如果他们自己挖上一年，可以赚多少， 就卖这个价。 直接把一年的收益先收了，又可省下一笔电费。
从定价来推算，他们预期的难度增长率大约是每周，6%。
如果每周难度增长率低于6%， 那买家就可得到少许油水。
如果每周难度增长率高于6%， 那买家就等于白白替烤猫打一年工。 亏了电费，也回不了本。
上两次涨幅 28%，24%
If 15x hash power device were slightly profitable, the USB miners would be negligible then. lol.
I am a bit confused by your thinking here. You plan to run your USB miners for 'a couple years', then turn around and say that other operations will destroy the difficulty and send something that isn't much more profitable than these things in the first place. For this statement to make sense, the USB miners would have to break even before other ASIC companies ship, which probably isn't going to happen. For the same cost you can get ~15x the hashpower but have to wait, wouldn't that mean that the difficulty would have to rise even more in order to make those options worthless as well?
Okay; 15x the hash power for these other devices, which are a bit cheaper per GH/s. For these devices to lose money mining (versus electricity), we need the overall network hash rate to increase beyond 100 fold what it currently is now. At that point, everyone is likely losing money unless someone comes out with a way more energy efficient process. There shouldn't be any point in the next couple years where I'm losing much money mining with these. Maybe I'll make $250 fiat bucks back, or $100, or $1000. Doesn't really matter to me; I'm supporting the BTC network by a decentralized means.
No one can tell what the price of BTC will be in the future, and also what the network hash rate will be in the future. The price may fall to the point where it's not profitable for large ASIC mining companies to continue their operations mining or manufacturing products (similar to what happened after the 2011 crash), the difficulty could collapse, everyone could start throwing their devices out windows because they are worthless. I can continue mining and losing a few bucks per month with my little USB sticks at pretty much no risk to me (a cheeseburger a month in power -- who cares?). Then we may see the price go up in the long term. One of the best times to be mining BTC before was when it was seldom very profitable by GPU in 2012, because the difficulty kept falling and everyone still mining kept getting more and more BTC; over time the BTC proved very valuable.
This is my high risk investment. I know I'll make at least a little back, I have no worries about the loss of $500, and I'll be securing the network in the meantime.
The difficulty has to increase by two orders of magnitude for these to become totally worthless in terms of power usage versus mining income. I plan to run them for the next couple of years. I'm not really worried. If they lose money, so be it, at least they're not costing me anything to run and they are securing the Bitcoin network.
The per watt efficiency is similar to other manufacturers out there, so as long as they are mining profitably, probably I will be too.
In the meantime you're welcome to disseminate your money to operations who will ship in "September" or "October" or whenever, who will probably use your funds to buy ASICs, destroy the network difficulty with them before shipping them out, and then send a slightly profitable brick to your doorstop (as we're seeing with Avalon and BFL, and as I'm sure we'll see with the Klondike etc manufacturers).
The per watt efficiency is similar to other manufacturers out there, so as long as they are mining profitably, probably I will be too.
In the meantime you're welcome to disseminate your money to operations who will ship in "September" or "October" or whenever, who will probably use your funds to buy ASICs, destroy the network difficulty with them before shipping them out, and then send a slightly profitable brick to your doorstop (as we're seeing with Avalon and BFL, and as I'm sure we'll see with the Klondike etc manufacturers).
I am a bit confused by your thinking here. You plan to run your USB miners for 'a couple years', then turn around and say that other operations will destroy the difficulty and send something that isn't much more profitable than these things in the first place. For this statement to make sense, the USB miners would have to break even before other ASIC companies ship, which probably isn't going to happen. For the same cost you can get ~15x the hashpower but have to wait, wouldn't that mean that the difficulty would have to rise even more in order to make those options worthless as well?
Okay; 15x the hash power for these other devices, which are a bit cheaper per GH/s. For these devices to lose money mining (versus electricity), we need the overall network hash rate to increase beyond 100 fold what it currently is now. At that point, everyone is likely losing money unless someone comes out with a way more energy efficient process. There shouldn't be any point in the next couple years where I'm losing much money mining with these. Maybe I'll make $250 fiat bucks back, or $100, or $1000. Doesn't really matter to me; I'm supporting the BTC network by a decentralized means.
No one can tell what the price of BTC will be in the future, and also what the network hash rate will be in the future. The price may fall to the point where it's not profitable for large ASIC mining companies to continue their operations mining or manufacturing products (similar to what happened after the 2011 crash), the difficulty could collapse, everyone could start throwing their devices out windows because they are worthless. I can continue mining and losing a few bucks per month with my little USB sticks at pretty much no risk to me (a cheeseburger a month in power -- who cares?). Then we may see the price go up in the long term. One of the best times to be mining BTC before was when it was seldom very profitable by GPU in 2012, because the difficulty kept falling and everyone still mining kept getting more and more BTC; over time the BTC proved very valuable.
This is my high risk investment. I know I'll make at least a little back, I have no worries about the loss of $500, and I'll be securing the network in the meantime.