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Showing 20 of 119 results by bozak
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Re: any news driving this drop
by
bozak
on 18/07/2013, 13:32:00 UTC

No forced selling of BTC, only forced selling of SD shares.  Some people are theorizing that the large BTC payout led to the drop in exchange rate, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  The alternative view is that a BTC company was just sold for a significant sum showing that the BTC economy is thriving.

Small market.  That is a huge amount.

People will be selling to make profits causing the charts to look negative.  People panic and sell.



I agree with the concept that the amount of BTC being dispersed is large enough to effect the exchange rate.  However, I think it is a leap to assume that these investors will be selling to take profits.  Has this development fundmentaly changed their investment view on BTC?
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Board Speculation
Re: any news driving this drop
by
bozak
on 18/07/2013, 13:22:59 UTC
re forced buyback - how does that work?  all 123K BTC worth  of satoshidice shares must be sold within hours??  Please elaborate?

No forced selling of BTC, only forced selling of SD shares.  Some people are theorizing that the large BTC payout led to the drop in exchange rate, but that doesn't make a lot of sense to me.  The alternative view is that a BTC company was just sold for a significant sum showing that the BTC economy is thriving.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: SatoshiDice Sold for $12.4 Million
by
bozak
on 18/07/2013, 13:19:22 UTC
Have the share holders already received the payouts?  From the original statement, I think the payouts should have already started.  Can anyone confirm receipt?
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Board Service Discussion
Re: If mtgox supposedly is having liquidity probs
by
bozak
on 15/07/2013, 18:45:53 UTC
Right now when you withdraw using BTC through bitstamp, you'll loose 5$ on every BTC.
So it is more profitable for mtgox to allow people to withdraw via BTC.

If they can't do withdrawals, we'll see that gox price will start moving upwards due to lack of arbitrage between gox and other exchanges.
I'd be afraid to hold money on mtgox right now.

I'm confused.  Did you mean to say that if you sell the BTC and transfer out US from Bitstamp you lose $5?  If you transfer 1 BTC from Bitstamp or transfer 1 BTC from Gox, you still have 1 BTC. 
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Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: ripple question
by
bozak
on 10/07/2013, 14:25:43 UTC
Tradehill has XRP listed on their front page as a currency they are focusing on.  However, this has been there since the Tradehill relaunch and as far as I can tell XRP is not yet traded.  Of course it also appears that BTC is barely traded at Tradehill as well, only 12k bitcoin for the last month.  Does not appear that Tradehill new strategy is working.   
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Someone is spamming the blockchain
by
bozak
on 10/07/2013, 14:09:36 UTC
Why are they using a large amount of coins for this purpose?  Couldn't they just transfer 1 coin back and forth and acheive the same result?
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Re: Time for a big rebound?
by
bozak
on 05/07/2013, 19:10:02 UTC
You kake pretty good arguments and try to explain it rationally.

Problem is, markets simply are not rational.

It's pure psychology, mud could become worth millions and gold could become worthless given the right psychology. (exaggerating a little).

Once the psychology effect is gone it will return to it's true value and your points will be taken into account. But for now they simply don't matter.

Yeah, I agree that many bitcoin "speculators" are driven more by physcology than any sort of fundamental analysis.  Since it is really impossible to do any sort of standard fundamental analysis with bitcoin, the temptation to trade off of emotion is even stronger than with other asset classes. 

However, I think this dip will eventually be a the opportunity for big investment firms to get in on bitcoin.  These firms should be aware of bitcoin now, and they should be less likely to trade on emotion and more likely to actually perform an investment potential analysis. 
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Topic OP
Time for a big rebound?
by
bozak
on 05/07/2013, 18:22:27 UTC
I think we will see a pretty big rebound today or tomorrow.  I know that all of the technical analysts are predicting gloom and doom at this point, but that is simply because technical analysis always just says the current trend will continue.  Here are the reasons why I think we will bounce soon. 

1. VC and hedge fund radar.  Although it is unclear how much of the money that led to the original soar to $260 was from hedge funds and venture capital firms, it is reasonable to assume that many funds and VCs are now aware of bitcoin.  At least some of these new entrants are probably looking for a good buying opportunity.  The total amount of fiat $ in bitcoin is still very small relative to pretty much all other currencies and commodities.

2.  The potential of bitcoin has not changed/decreased from just a few weeks ago.  Anyone who is looking for an entrance and understands bitcoin, will realize that this is a big opportunity compared the price of entrance in the recent past.   

3. The market seems to be reacting to false media coverage.  It is strange how many people are anti-bitcoin without actually taking the time to understan it.  A lot of this negative sentiment has been formed by people reading a few false or misleading statements.  Such as the inclusion of drugs, illegal activities, ponzi-scheme, et, in most bitcoin related articles.  As the bitcoin infrastructure continues to evolve, hopefully, the media coverage will become more focused on the benefits of bitcoin and crypto-currencies ingeneral. 

4.  Investments in infrastructure will start to pay off.  Although bitcoin has come a long way in ease of use and security options, it is still difficult for the average person to buy bitcoin and there are still a lack of trustworthy options to store bitcoin for those who do not want to deal with storing it themselves.  There are many new exchanges that are about to open, coinsetter, buttercoin, coinlab to name a few.  Many other products and services based on the protocol are also going to be realeased in the next few months and years.  In other words, the money that VC firms are spending, will start to improve the bitcoin infrastructure, make bitcoin easier to use, and open the technology to many new consumers.   

5.  Fiat currency based financial crises are not over.  There is still a strong incentive for all investors to deversify out of fiat only currency exposure.  Although there has not been a Cyprus style news event recently, many governments are still loaded with unsustainable debt and it is only a matter of time before the next financial crisis appears. 

Obviously, many of these points are not near term time contingent, i.e., they will not directly result in a bounce in the exchange rate today or tomorrow.  However, collectively these points highlight why new and current investors should view any significant downtrend as a buying opportunity.  We are about to hit a 50% decline in the last 2 weeks.  If you are looking for an entry point, a recent 40%-50% decline without a decline in the long term prospects for bitcoin, sure seems like a good deal. 
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Board Speculation
Re: I am fucking panicking
by
bozak
on 03/07/2013, 23:28:00 UTC
This is the first time in a long time that bitcoin is a strong buy.  Down 30% in the last few days, market cap well below 1 billion, and significant positive news in the last few days.  I don't care how many negative articles are published about the Winklevii ETF, it is a positive for BTC long term.   
There's a good chance it will never be approved.

"Good chance" is a bit strong from a wording perspective.  I think it might take awhile, but no matter how you look at it, a BTC ETF is lower risk than a leveraged ETF.  Leveraged ETFs have been mathimatically proven to lose value if you hold overnight.  At least a BTC ETF is not guaranteed to decline in value.  Additionally, the BTC ETF would be very similar to GLD and SLV which are very popular trading instruments and arguably led to significant increases in the value of the underlying commodities.  
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Re: I am fucking panicking
by
bozak
on 03/07/2013, 23:22:53 UTC
This is the first time in a long time that bitcoin is a strong buy.  Down 30% in the last few days, market cap well below 1 billion, and significant positive news in the last few days.  I don't care how many negative articles are published about the Winklevii ETF, it is a positive for BTC long term.   
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Board Goods
Re: WTS pair of RARE Google Glass for BTC! NONE FOR SALE ANYWHERE!
by
bozak
on 28/05/2013, 13:59:08 UTC
Um why would anyone buy these for 90k when everyone can just buy them for $1500 in another couple months? Thats like charging $50,000 for an iphone 5s... whats with the price gougers  lately...


Probably because if someone listened to you thinking they could buy them in a couple of months they would be very upset with you in a couple of months.

That's my guess... since you can't buy them for 1,500 in a couple of months....

Also, have you even read the posts here... No one is trying to sell them for 90k. That was a snip from a news article from like a month ago. Pay attention if you want to troll...
I do belive that google said they plan on releaseing it to users at the end of 2013 early 2014. so that is only 6/7 months

Still before BFL ships their much anticipated products. lol Wink

That would be a good contest for one of the BTC prediction markets.  Google glass available for retail purchase or BFL actually shipping ASIC products on a mass scale, which happens first. 
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Board Economics
Topic OP
Is bitcoin a risky investment?
by
bozak
on 23/05/2013, 17:03:12 UTC
Almost every article published to date that covers the topic of bitcoin as an investment takes it as a given that bitcoin is a risky investment.  "Only invest what you can afford to lose" is a common sentiment even on the bitcoin forum.

Although I agree that bitcoin should/can be considered a risky investment depending on the context, I submit that a small bitcoin investment is actually a conservative/risk lowering investment for most US investors.  This conclusion is reached when you consider the full context and diversification of the average investment portfolio in the US.  It looks a little something like this: stocks, bonds, real estate, cash and cash equivalents, and precious metals, typically in that order based on the relative weight of the investment.  Note that all of these assets are directly linked to US dollars other than precious metals and real estate.  If we make the assumption that diversification lowers risk, it also makes sense that the average US investment portfolio should not be overly weighted towards US dollar denominated assets.  Sure the US dollar is the world's reserve currency and therefore has a "low-risk" tag currently associated with it, but that doesn't mean it makes sense to have almost all investment assets directly tied to the US dollar.  Proper diversification includes diversificatoin into other asset classes, including non-flationary currencies such as bitcoin.  Considering the potential that non-government backed crypto-currencies have to disrupt the monetary system, even if one believes that the probability is small of a wide scale disruption, it still makes sense to have some assets (i.e. bitcoin) that would benefit from such a disruption. 

I'll admit that bitcoin fits the classic definition of a riskly investment.  However, I would argue that for an investor that currently has a high allocation of stocks and bonds, an investment in bitcoin would actually lower risk for the complete portfolio rather than raise it as it is commonly assumed.

Therefore, I no longer think it is appropriate to broadly classify bitcoin as a "risky investment" to US investors.  It is certainly not a non-risky investment, but all such labels should be taken in the context of a given investors full investment portfolio.   

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Topic
Board Economics
Re: What happens if some1 rich buys it all?
by
bozak
on 23/05/2013, 00:38:45 UTC
I know it's impractical and can't be done within probably even a day nor a week, but what would happen if someone very rich would like to spend ~1 billion on bitcoins and buy it all?

At first glance looks like it would be the end. Thinking a bit more it suggests that the later bitcoins would be so expensive that even he couldn't afford it, but he would have so much that could make a huge profit out of it.

If there's someone more literate than me in economics, I'd love a detailed and argumented response.

It is simply not possible to buy it all even with an infinite amount of money.  The simple reason is that not all bitcoins are for sale.  Currently, the only ones that can be purchased are on the exchanges.  If someone spent a large amount of money on the exchange, the exchange rate would rise and this would probably lead to other coins being available on the exchange, but it would never lead to all the coins being available on the exchange. 
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Topic
Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Most secure storage method?
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 17:28:50 UTC
Memorize your private key and delete any trace of it, having used a secured offline pc.

Not sure about your memory, but for me this method would qualify as one of the least secure methods.  Nobody else would ever get thes bitcoins, but odds are I wouldn't be able to retrieve them either. 
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Board Beginners & Help
Re: Dwolla - MtGox - USD
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 17:04:28 UTC
I wouldnt trust Dwolla I think when they seized that last account everyone with their funds in there lost them.
Not true.

Now they have been going around and seizing funds if they suspect you are using your account for P2P bitcoin transactions, happened to myself and another user this morning.

Really?  It was Dwolla that seized the funds?  That is very different from the Mt.Gox situation. 
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Board Beginners & Help
Re: Dwolla - MtGox - USD
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 17:03:16 UTC
To be fair, it was not a Dwolla issue.  They had a court order to seize the funds, it was a problem with Mt.Gox.  As long as the exchange follows the rules, then using Dwolla should not be a problem.  
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Board Speculation
Re: Mtgox.com Domain Seizure by US Authorities
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 16:22:03 UTC
You would think by now mtgox would have made an official statement regarding coinlab lawsuit and not to mention the more recent DHS account seizure.

Agreed, it is very concerning that they have said nothing.  It is also very odd that they haven't even disabled the Dwolla withdraw option.   
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Board Speculation
Re: Predict Coins - Bitcoin price prediction game!
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 16:20:01 UTC
Looks like fun, I like the interface, good luck with growing traffic!
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Topic
Board Beginners & Help
Re: Dwolla - MtGox - USD
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 15:57:33 UTC
That stinks...   Now it seems like there is no good way to get USD in and out of the system...    Sad

I'd recommend switching to CampBx or Coinbase.  Both are easy to move money in and out.  Not sure how long Dwolla will still be available at CampBx, but for now it works great and it is instant unlike at Mt.Gox where there were significant delays. 
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Board Goods
Re: Wooden Physical Bitcoins.
by
bozak
on 20/05/2013, 15:41:49 UTC
Amy pics of a prototype?