dont think its the ETF

China apparently set out a list of rules. I'm still looking for it ....

Here is one piece: PBoC’s Governor：Highly encourages Blockchain innovation but risks should be considered
http://news.8btc.com/pbocs-governor%EF%BC%9Ahighly-encourages-blockchain-innovation-but-risks-should-be-considered

i said it was BASED on Moore's law ..

and Moore's law has been applied to many tech things, the doubling always happens, it's the time period  that needs to be calculated for any given usage of the "law"

also, i know it wont BE 100% accurate, THAT'S WHY ITS A PREDICTION

and thats why i will modify it over time, as the months tick on by

actually its based on Moore's Law , that over a given period of time things ( price, uptake,  the amount of transistors on a chip etc) double
then you need to work out the doubling time..

Moore's law works well with tech items

i'm not using numerology, i'm using good old fashioned mathamatics

and at the end of the day , its just my speculation of where the price MAY be in 1, 2 and 3 years time ( which will change from my original post as i will adjust my pricing points as the months go by as i get more (historical) pricing data)

sorry, this is a Bitcoin speculation thread and post. If a bacteria timing question is of interest to you - work it out for yourself , its not really for a BTC price speculation thread.

wow: there's some doom...

my advice: sell every BTC you have now while the current prices are are much higher than your predicted future prices

im a "newbie" as you call me , on this forum

ok

but i've been in bitcoin since late 2011 , ive been through Mt Gox when it was the only exchange, ( and got my BTC's out a month before it went belly up() i've seen all the high's and low's , l've seen the peak rises and all the drops , i was on Crypsy and countless others, manged to get out always in time

i've seen  the adoption rate increase slowly over time

and i've educated probably 100+  people these past 6 years, 90% of of which still have BTC and are actively seeking to buy more as and when their funds permit

and i also buy more from time to time!

in fact i may of even been on this forum many years ago under i different handle, i can't remember , lol

this is a prediction thread and a prediction post !,

but i will update this post  every 2 or 3 months with the current price mutiplier to see if my numbers are any way near being in the ball park, as we go forward in time

edit for Sven, actually there sources and facts  > 1. look up the prices on the dates mentioned in the original post  > 2. then do the math ( you will need log calcs & to the power of etc to work it out), you will find the calcs are correct ( based on the historical start and end price data ) .

Big & median  money and most people are not in the "game" yet

most money comes in at 34% point of adoption ( the early majority ) and again at the 68% point of adoption ( the late majority)

we are currently somewhere between 7 and 13% point of adoption , so we still have a while to go


Pierre 2 :  Bitcoin has "legs" , this is going to be around in 20+ years time  so it will hold interest

( dont make the "IBM mistake" :  Personal computers? no one will want one of those in their home  - an IBM chiefy Exec )

ok, i can work on a chart , a good idea

the doubling effect ( From Moore's law) is well known in the tech world, think internet usage, cell phones, etc

so Bitcoin will follow the S-Curve of technological adoption

( its called the S Curve simply because of its letter "S" shape, its defining characteristic is the extremely slow exponential ramp up to the point at which the growth goes "vertical" and big majority adoption is rapidly achieved)

we are still in the Innovators/Early adoption stage

My long term price predictions are as follows:

Scenario 1


March 1st 2018 - $8,950 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $68,059 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $517,536 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $3,935,454 Per 1 BTC


How I arrived at the above numbers........

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

and on Dec 6th 2010 bitcoin price was $375.00


Time interval between both dates is 1604 days or 53 months

The computed doubling time for Bitcoin worked out to be 4.1 months between the two dates
ie every 4.1 months over the 53 months time period , the price doubled


I then took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 4.1 months ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and December 6th 2010)


-----------------------------------

Scenario 2

July 17th 2010 bitcoin price was $0.05 (the price when it started TRADING)

28th Feb 2017 bitcoin price was $1177

Time interval between both dates is 2418 days or 79.497 months


 then i took the 27th Feb 2017 price of ($1177) as a start date & price and using MS Excel's POWER Function in a spreadsheet projected it forward for the next 4 years, again assuming it ( the price ) will be doubling every 5.473 months   ( which is historically what it did between July 17th 2010 and Feb 28th 2017)

which gives the following price predictions


March 1st 2018 - $5,403 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2019 - $24,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2020 - $112,699 per 1 BTC

March 1st 2021 - $516,115 Per 1 BTC


both scenarios assume that the price doubling is constant going forward , and yes i know it wont actually happen like that , but it a good excersise to see how close i end up being to my original scenario 1 & 2 predictions


Thats how i worked out my predictions, i also took into account that a lot of technologies grow on an exponential curve, and i think that Bitcoin is one such "technology"

yep, noone at the  office, no phone number...

did anyone say Mt Gox?


* i removed my balances from there a week ago btw

BTC will hit between $1000 and $2000 before the end of  September 2016 !

Why?

Simple, it's supply & demand economics

there are 100 million+ Chinese that are about to get into BTC, futhermore the Chinese Gov are going to promote ownership of BTC as a way of esacping the Western
financial upcoiming crash.

Demand - 100 mil chinese

Supply - well, unlike FRN's, they cant just be printed! -, so limited supply

= massive price rises


it is their purchases of BTC which will send the $ price skywards

( I also speculate that it will be $12,000 to $14,000 by the end of Spring 2017 as well)

This has nothing to do with the Halving, but simply a mass of Chinese people for various reasons ( capital controls etc)  waking (financially) up


Note: i'n a newbie on this forum , but not to BTC (  5 years now )

Hi, do the cards come with the "Visa" logo, ( as in the 1st picture on the first page), or the "Visa Electron" logo, ( as in the 2nd picture on the first page?)