If I am long USD and flat BTC with BTC/USD at $47 and then BTC/USD drops from $47 to $46 I can buy more BTC at $46 so I would have profited in BTC terms but in USD terms, I still have the same number of USD. So in USD terms, I didn't profit any from the move from $47 to $46. I'm looking for ways to profit in USD terms, not BTC terms, if the BTC/USD exchange rate goes lower.
If you buy same number of BTC at 46, then you will have some USD left over. That is your profit in USD terms.
Assume I have 100 USD and 0 BTC with BTC/USD at 47. BTC/USD drops from 47 to 46. I still have 100 USD and 0 BTC. How did I profit in USD terms on this price move?
To make money when price of an item goes down, you can borrow that item and sell it at the current price. Buy back when the price drop. If you don't want to borrow and if you don't already own that item, I don't think you can make money when the price drops.
If I am long USD and flat BTC with BTC/USD at $47 and then BTC/USD drops from $47 to $46 I can buy more BTC at $46 so I would have profited in BTC terms but in USD terms, I still have the same number of USD. So in USD terms, I didn't profit any from the move from $47 to $46. I'm looking for ways to profit in USD terms, not BTC terms, if the BTC/USD exchange rate goes lower.
If you buy same number of BTC at 46, then you will have some USD left over. That is your profit in USD terms.
Barring a disastrous technological or legal black swan (Gox robbed again, ECDSA broken, Bitcoin outlawed, &c), I can't imagine dipping below $5 and am willing to bet we won't dip below $12 either.
Anything else, well, we'll see. Other than the kodiak in the room, news has generally been bullish; how these forces will play out - and whether the next major correction will take minutes or months to materialize - is anyone's guess at this point.
Except if Bitcoin is outlawed. Everything that has been outlawed in the history of human civilization has gone up in price. I expect that to hold true in case of Bitcoin as well.
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
A big thanks to all those helping putting up ask walls around 50, the longer it stays under the better. Personaly, I am not taking that chance, but +rep for those who do.
Well I don't know, personally, I can't wait to cash in some coins for 10k a piece. I'm getting tired of not being very rich.
Good things come to those who can wait .
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
Just checked. There more than 6.3 million dollar on the bid side.
A large minority of this $ probably came from panic sellers during the 2 dips last week and this week. So this stat might not be bullish in the short term (a week or so) since these bids are unlikely to move above their sell price easily. But other stats indicate a lot of new $ is still pouring in. When this causes the market to regain momentum, all these sellers will have to hop back on board or be left behind. So my prediction is when the market shows a good uptrend (52-55), its gonna really pop!
This is my sentiment as well. These buyers obviously want back in and will fear being left behind.
Whenever people sell and keep the USD in the exchange, that mean price can not fall very far. And that is a very bullish sign.
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Re: 2013-03-13 Bitcoin on Bloomberg TV
by
cheat_2_win
on 13/03/2013, 19:36:56 UTC
I think this is one of the most intelligent piece of video related to bitcoin.
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
by
cheat_2_win
on 13/03/2013, 14:24:25 UTC
Just checked. There more than 6.3 million dollar on the bid side.
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
Whatever I had at Gox to sell during the bug crisis, I just bought back with. I kept the fiat for a while as insurance in case we go down, but it looks like we're back on track towards $50. Could be wrong about this but I just see everything as so bullish, the market reacted astoundingly maturely to the whole bug thing. Up we go, I think.
I agree. I didn't that Bitcoin was so mature at this point that it would shrug off the whole incident so easily. When things are so bullish that even I'M amazed, you know we're on the path to success.
Or little baby is growing up so nicely
+1
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
Hilarious how the we-don't-know-why-dip last week is significantly stronger than the O-M-G-Bitcoin-is-broken-dip today
Only reason I can think of: we were short-term overbought then, while I believe we were just gathering energy to make a big jump upwards when the fork news hit. Thus there was a lot of fiat waiting for cheaper coins.
I am also amazed at the amount of liquidity in the exchange. I clearly remember when the order book showed 1 million, people were celebrating. Now it is close to 6 million.
I have my explanation why the drop happened - price has gone to $43 and some big guy was playing with a big 50k BTC wall at the Gox, trying to set a SCARE WALL at $43, but accidentally typed $34 instead and kaboom! He's now hanging from a ceiling somewhere in a Singapore hotel room and we have had some cheap bitcoins, all went well.
Heh, if that's the case good riddance then
I always felt it is good for long term health of bitcoin when someone dumps like that as that will make it harder to crash in the future with single push of a button.
EDIT: If you look at height of the bitcoin volume during the crash , it has been getting smaller and smaller. One reason for that it less people now are holding large amount of bitcoins than before and bitcoins are getting distributed to more hands that don't get scared quite easily.
geez, what am i after taking the brunt of his trolling? chopped liver?
proudhon must be smarter than we're all giving him credit for!
He is just trolling in this forum. He is bull in his heart and already has his coins in paper wallet stashed somewhere. (I cannot find the post where he mentions that.)
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
by
cheat_2_win
on 02/03/2013, 02:42:54 UTC
Only question now is at what price will there be another shot at price manipulation and will that result in a crash or not?
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Re: Sorry to inform you, the current rally is over now... or very soon.
Meh. Silly bears are still trying to dump, but he market has decided that bitcoins are valuable and all the bad dumps do is let people buy cheap coins. It's just gonna keep happening.
naa this is it, this is the top.
What is this obsession with 'the top'? Does it matter if you get 1 in 100 prediction correct?
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker
when the Bid side is usually weak there isnt a sell off (no money to get maximum value), when the bid side is Super filled that is usually when I notice some big action moving
when the Ask side is usually strong there is usually big buys since there are alot of bitcoins sitting waiting to be scooped up,
this is just a observation from watching the price practically 24/7 with my other assets
That makes perfect sense from both buyers and sellers side.
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Re: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker