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Re: What is your fill the bag Bitcoin price?
by
coinbiz
on 14/06/2022, 02:15:05 UTC
Whenever MicroTragedy gets margin called out of the market.  It will happen.  I’ve been calling this bear market since last year and we’re heading sub $20k.  I don’t think sub $10k but somewhere in between $10k-$20k is the bottom in this cycle IMO.  This is just the beginning, as we slowly see tech companies stagger… first Netflix, then Snapchat.  Coinbase stock is more of a bargain now than bitcoin, though even that could dip harder with the rest of the market.

Since the institutional move into crypto, it really moves with the markets, aside from the occasional good/bad crypto news that carries it off that general trend.  But you can predictably see how the western/global economy is weighing on crypto lately.  We will face a market crash in the US and that will wipe out Michael Sayalator.

Bumping because I called it pretty accurately, now waiting for that sub $20k dip (and short slide) incoming at any moment now.  Also can’t wait to watch Saylor get margin called and MicroTragedy garbage get wiped out of the market.  What you all don’t realize is these Wallstreeterz are bad juju.  Saylor buying 91k coins and being so boastful about it put a target on bitcoin. 

One more advices is to look at user registration date, not post count.  Not everyone has time to sit around racking up thousands of posts on a forum, but may have the legacy knowldege and better understanding of the market.
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Re: What is your fill the bag Bitcoin price?
by
coinbiz
on 27/05/2022, 02:24:33 UTC
Whenever MicroTragedy gets margin called out of the market.  It will happen.  I’ve been calling this bear market since last year and we’re heading sub $20k.  I don’t think sub $10k but somewhere in between $10k-$20k is the bottom in this cycle IMO.  This is just the beginning, as we slowly see tech companies stagger… first Netflix, then Snapchat.  Coinbase stock is more of a bargain now than bitcoin, though even that could dip harder with the rest of the market.

Since the institutional move into crypto, it really moves with the markets, aside from the occasional good/bad crypto news that carries it off that general trend.  But you can predictably see how the western/global economy is weighing on crypto lately.  We will face a market crash in the US and that will wipe out Michael Sayalator.
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Re: Your price expectations for 2021
by
coinbiz
on 16/05/2021, 21:51:18 UTC
The only question now is what would be the catalyst to achieve that $100k mark.
It seems that the catalyst for reaching the 100K is another financial crisis that may be even worse than the events of 2008. This is just my personal opinion.

I think the current monetary policy is only pretending to make the banking system safe. When in fact, we are on the way to a crisis.
Agreed.

I don't have a lot of faith in 2021, especially if $30k doesn't hold.  New US govt administration will not be friendly to crypto.  World economies are on the bring of collapse right now.  And as that happens they will be desperate for more control.  We're already seeing a lot of that as a result of the 'covid excuse'... govts clamping down on their citizens freedom/travel/etc.  Don't let a tragedy go to waste.  But the markets were already nearing collapse, covid was just the trigger.

I think 2021 will be a bear year, and this run is a bull trap.  I anticipate regulations and at least one major exchange biting the dust - what if that was coinbase?  Not saying it will be, but what if.  I'm not hoping for a bear market, but I think the 'institutional' investment thing is BS given the shady Tether stuff going on.  And before anyone says "Tether is only 2% of BTC market cap"... look at the daily volume.  Tether has more volume than any other coin.  That's the biggest red flag.  Oh and also that tether.to is based on WordPress, what a joke.    

But why should institutional investment bring stability?  It may bring more volatility.  Especially if world economies are in flux.  

Lots of interesting speculations in this thread hoping for $50k+ and I hope that happens, but I have my doubts.  I will keep hodling regardless.  


I said this in January.  It was great to see BTC go up to $64k, and I was certainly wrong about how high it would go.  But this institutional investing and Tether has got to go.  We shouldn't be happy because 'institutions' are investing.  That's not what BTC is about.  I remember back in the day, excitement was more about the latest development achievements rather than what company is tweeting about bitcoin.  Crypto has become a joke in some ways, especially seeing Doge hyped so much.

Besides as I said in January, institutions like Tesla, are made up of people, who can change their minds.  That same rush of positivity can cause a much more catastrophic rush of negativity in the market.  I think there's actually more at play here than the Tesla/Elon surface level tweets.  The world economy is still not doing well.  Covid was a great cover for that.  As such we will see a crash in crypto, since speculative assets are the first to get dropped. 

Binance is under SEC investigation right now.  Which exchange is next? 
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Re: Bitcoin now officially in Bear-Market: -20% down - Dropping like a Rock
by
coinbiz
on 24/04/2021, 03:34:52 UTC
I bought at $200-$300.  Whether it's a bear or bull market is really just relative to what you got in at.
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Re: Your price expectations for 2021
by
coinbiz
on 21/01/2021, 17:25:01 UTC
I don't have a lot of faith in 2021, especially if $30k doesn't hold.  New US govt administration will not be friendly to crypto.  World economies are on the bring of collapse right now.

I think 2021 will be a bear year, and this run is a bull trap.  I anticipate regulations and at least one major exchange biting the dust - what if that was coinbase?  Not saying it will be, but what if.  I'm not hoping for a bear market, but I think the 'institutional' investment thing is BS given the shady Tether stuff going on.  And before anyone says "Tether is only 2% of BTC market cap"... look at the daily volume.  Tether has more volume than any other coin.  That's the biggest red flag.  Oh and also that tether.to is based on WordPress, what a joke.   

But why should institutional investment bring stability?  It may bring more volatility. 

Lots of interesting speculations in this thread hoping for $50k+ and I hope that happens, but I have my doubts.  I will keep hodling regardless. 

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Re: Tether
by
coinbiz
on 12/01/2021, 16:57:14 UTC
I honestly can't wait for the day that tether is removed from the bitcoin/exchange ecosystem.  The concept of stablecoins in general is toxic to the all of crypto.

When tether collapses, it will cause a short squeeze capital exit via altcoins, followed by full panic mode and crypto market crash.  Only after that will we see true growth and long-term stability.  Right now, bitcoin's true value is tainted by tether.  I think we'd have a lot less volatility without tether and stablecoins.  They have the opposite effect on crypto price stability as a whole.  They suck the stability out of the market. 
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Merits 2 from 1 user
Re: Nocoiners desperately trying to say this is the end for Bitcoin
by
coinbiz
on 12/01/2021, 16:51:25 UTC
⭐ Merited by exstasie (2)
you know what makes me mad isn't that they are spreading FUD, it is that they are spreading the same FUD again.

this must be at least the 100,000 article that repeated the same old story. in fact there is a website that keeps track of all these FUD articles about how bitcoin is "now dead" called bitcoin obituaries. i think the articles date back to 2011 and they are all the same. bitcoin has a drop of any size they fill the internet will doomsday stories!
Sadly that's because it works.  It scares retail and the small-timers.  It reinforces their preconceived worries and emboldens the same old narratives.

I have family that have questioned whether they should buy Bitcoin ever since I told them about it at $150-200.  I told them about Ethereum at $1.  They're just as skeptical now as they were back then lol.  Probably more skeptical now actually, because they only buy at the peaks, and sell at the slightest drop in price, and then that makes them believe that they shouldn't have invested lol.  If only they listened years ago.  But people are brainwashed.  So few people think for themselves these days. 
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Re: When The Inevitable Happens With The Dump - What Will Bitcoin Be Worth?
by
coinbiz
on 11/01/2021, 23:22:19 UTC
1 BTC = 1 BTC

Always
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Re: I doubt Bitcoin will dip below 20k again
by
coinbiz
on 11/01/2021, 14:16:42 UTC
LOL at all the people saying below $20k isn't going to happen.  We're about to hit below $30k any moment now.

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Re: Michael Saylor goes nuts: he predicts a $15 million Bitcoin price.
by
coinbiz
on 11/01/2021, 03:14:10 UTC
These wild predictions are cues of an impending market crash.
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Board Beginners & Help
Re: Newbies/Jr members please don't beg for merits.
by
coinbiz
on 08/01/2021, 03:17:11 UTC
Post count and merit means nothing.  Don't be fooled by either.  Both can be gamed.

IMO, registration date is most important and provides the most credibility.
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Re: Increase Your Alertness Everytime
by
coinbiz
on 08/01/2021, 03:13:54 UTC
Good advice.  I'd add:

8.  When prices begin to drop, don't try to hedge by buying altcoins.  Bitcoin preserves its value the best.  During the last crash Bitcoin bottom at a maximum decline of 85% but many alts crashed 99%.  Remember, you cannot beat the market, and you don't need to.
9.  Don't try to hedge by selling your bitcoins for USDT, USDC or any stable coin.  Doing so will typically tie you to an exchange, and you may end up losing that coin.  
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Re: What if Bitcoin drops to $15,000?
by
coinbiz
on 08/01/2021, 02:38:52 UTC
Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.  The positive though is that the bear market declines are getting less severe over time, and the price is stabilizing as it goes higher.  

The last bear market was a crash of nearly 85%.  Many alt coins crashed 99% lol.  

Reality check - the US economy is at an all-time high and stocks are increasing despite record unemployment and many other indicators of poor recovery outlook.  

Bitcoin is rising due to Tether (China capital outflow) and stimulus pumping companies.  As 'wallstreet' becomes more intertwined with bitcoin, the price correlates more closely with US economic indicators.  

What happens if the US economy tanks?

My prediction is that those institutions that bought have agreed upon stop loss points where their investors will not tolerate any further losses.  Those kinds of selloffs will easily cause a bear market decline of 70-80%.  

I enjoy every couple years a bunch of overly optimistic people come here saying "it's never going as low as $$$" and then a couple years later a bunch of overly pessimistic people say "it's never going as high as $$$... bitcoin is done" lol.  It's a cycle.  Just search this forum in 2018 and look at the pessimism.  When the prices are low, people lose faith.  When the prices are high people lose sight/IQ.

Ride the waves, but just know it goes in both directions.  Don't get caught up in the hype train or the doom gloom.  Ultimately we will go to $1mil, maybe not in my lifetime, but who knows.

Well look at that... a noob telling experienced Bitcoiners what is what, or is this just your newest account. If so, what was your old user name?
___

Nobody is saying Bitcoin can't crash by 80% of its value but the chance of it happening this early in the bull run is extremely unlikely.

You also have to consider that previous bubbles were driven by retail FOMO and crashed by retail weak hands. Institutional investors don't have weak hands.

The current bull run has been largely the result of institutional investment. Retail FOMO is just starting to join the party. When the time for a major correction occurs it will probably be much smaller than during retail-based runs.
___

Anything can happen. Black swan events occur... e.g. last March's short-lived Covid-19 crash.

Actual experience is the best teacher. How many of these cycles have you ridden out?

Noob because I deleted many of my old posts.  I registered in Jan 2014.  Had hundreds of posts before, decided to delete them for certain reasons.  Bought bitcoin in 2012-2013.  Not worried about any price drops, just find it funny how sentiment changes so quickly during the bull / bear markets.  It's literally day and night.  All skepticism seems to escape during a bull run and all faith is gone during a bear market.  I've ridden out plenty of waves. 

I suppose I'm a bit against the idea of institutional investment in general.  I want them out.  That's some bias I have.  Bitcoin was intended to destroy the existing financial institutions and replace them.  I'm a bit bummed that all the craze these days is all about which big bank is hopping on the crypto wave. 
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Re: What if Bitcoin drops to $15,000?
by
coinbiz
on 07/01/2021, 20:46:32 UTC
Most people who think it "won't ever touch $15k again" haven't been around since the early days.  Every bull run so far has been followed by a bear market decline of a minimum of 80%

Don't be over-confident.  What goes up must come down.  The positive though is that the bear market declines are getting less severe over time, and the price is stabilizing as it goes higher. 

The last bear market was a crash of nearly 85%.  Many alt coins crashed 99% lol. 

Reality check - the US economy is at an all-time high and stocks are increasing despite record unemployment and many other indicators of recovery outlook. 

Bitcoin is rising due to Tether (China capital outflow) and stimulus pumping companies.  As 'wallstreet' becomes more intertwined with bitcoin, the price correlates more closely with US economic indicators. 

What happens if the US economy tanks?

My prediction is that those institutions that bought have agreed upon stop loss points where their investors will not tolerate any further losses.  Those kinds of selloffs will easily cause a bear market decline of 70-80%. 

I enjoy every couple years a bunch of overly optimistic people come here saying "it's never going as low as $$$" and then a couple years later a bunch of overly pessimistic people say "it's never going as high as $$$... bitcoin is done" lol.  It's a cycle.  Ride the waves, but just know it goes in both directions.  Don't get caught up in the hype train or the doom gloom.  Ultimately we will go to $1mil, maybe not in my lifetime, but who knows.


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Re: reverse market how to tell
by
coinbiz
on 06/01/2021, 04:13:07 UTC
I think we just hit a double top at $34.4k.  Reversal incoming.  Also volume has fallen significantly.  So it will take less sell pressure to make the price fall.
https://i.imgur.com/zlQG8qC.jpg

Look at the volume drop on Ethereum as well.  42% drop in 24hrs is significant IMO.
https://i.imgur.com/bZ6xTPp.jpg
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Re: Correction has started?
by
coinbiz
on 06/01/2021, 03:31:42 UTC
We just hit a double top at approx. $34.4k

Stocks are going to take a dive tomorrow due to the US Senate outcome and presidential elector stuff happening tomorrow.  Lots of uncertainty.  Great cover for a shaking out of weak hands.  I predict it will dip below $30k again, and then rise a bit, but the bear has awoken.
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Re: I doubt Bitcoin will dip below 20k again
by
coinbiz
on 05/01/2021, 17:23:56 UTC
Altcoins have actually surged when Bitcoin goes sideways, this just happened a day ago before there was that quick drop. But you have to realize that they are perhaps surging less than you expect because its the institutions that are driving BTC up. These institutions are only in BTC (and a little bit in ETH), they are not selling Bitcoin to ride some altcoin wave. The retail market will do this, but because institutions are the one driving the market cap up now, there's gonna be a lot less altcoin surges during the times Bitcoin stops surging because the money that is driving the market isn't going to flow to other areas of the crypto market - it's just gonna stay in Bitcoin. Altcoins are becoming more risk and less reward than they used to be as Bitcoin takes a more dominant position as it now is exiting the "crypto-only" market and is entering its phase as a globally accepted asset.

Ah, this is a very good point/perspective I didn't previously consider.  Makes a lot of sense.
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Re: I doubt Bitcoin will dip below 20k again
by
coinbiz
on 05/01/2021, 06:56:34 UTC
What's strange about this bull run is when a pull back happens, the alts are not rising.  They're also dropping in unison.

In the past runs (I've been around), whenever bitcoin dropped, alts would rise, money stayed in the market.  It seems when bitcoin drops now, money is exiting the market to fiat.

The problem with institutional investment, ie GrayScale or MicroStrategy is that when the price dips below their average buy price, they may be forced to sell by their investors.  Institutional buying is great, but institutional selling at these levels could set off a bear market.

The recent spike to $34k and subsequent drop don't look healthy in terms of technicals.  I know technicals don't mean much with bitcoin, but I compare with bitcoin's own chart patterns historically.  This current drop coincides closely with money flowing to exchanges due to anticipation of upcoming regulations in the next few weeks. 

I predict we're due for another dip below $30k in the next few days, then the final rally of this bull run getting close to $40k (I'll know when this happens because it will coincide with Ethereum also setting an all-time high), followed by a major pull back, which will dip below $20k (within about a month or so). 
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Re: Correction has started?
by
coinbiz
on 05/01/2021, 06:24:10 UTC
If $30k doesn't hold, this run is over.  That's not to say there won't be bounces. 

But I've been watching transactions and seeing a lot of money moving from cold wallets to exchanges over the past few days.  There's also been articles about this.  People taking profits. 

I predict we'll settle in the mid-$20k range, then up again, then down again.  There's also regulations coming in the next few weeks.  UK buying ban in effect tomorrow, etc.
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Merits 1 from 1 user
Re: Calling top at $16500 (Even Newer!: $2483 bottom 19 Feb 2021 MtGox said so!)
by
coinbiz
on 04/01/2021, 14:26:48 UTC
⭐ Merited by nutildah (1)
Happy new year degenerates!

C'mon February ... I believe in you!

What's your explanation for $2483 in Feb 2021? 

Btw, as far as the FCA ban going into effect on Jan 6, does that mean UK residents won't be able to buy crypto (legally) at all?