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Video I made last year - numbers have changed since ASIC mining took over, but order of magnitude still correct, and energy use is *small*
http://youtu.be/Cclfx4FK04I
http://youtu.be/Cclfx4FK04I
It's not really a very good analogy, except in a superficial sense that markets and weather systems are irregular and highly unpredictable. I'm not even sure if the analogy can be taken further - markets are complex systems, whereas weather systems are just dynamically unstable (chaotic).
For weather forecasting, you can apply serious grunt to numerical models of the atmosphere, and you will get good predictions, though the accuracy will drop dramatically as you forecast further out. You can try the same type of modelling with markets, but it just doesn't work - if it did, then the big investment funds would simply be competing to build the biggest supercomputers to predict the market out beyond the competition. Instead, they buy servers closer and closer to the exchanges, in order to cut down on delays by microseconds, in order to profit from FOREX arbitrage and things like that.
The point is, you *can* predict the weather, with quite high accuracy in fact, if you're talking about whether it will rain in the next hour. However, you can't predict if the price of a market will go up or down in the next hour, even using huge processing power applied to numerical models.
You definitely can't predict anything by scrawling a bunch of arcane, contrived lines all over a historical price chart...
For weather forecasting, you can apply serious grunt to numerical models of the atmosphere, and you will get good predictions, though the accuracy will drop dramatically as you forecast further out. You can try the same type of modelling with markets, but it just doesn't work - if it did, then the big investment funds would simply be competing to build the biggest supercomputers to predict the market out beyond the competition. Instead, they buy servers closer and closer to the exchanges, in order to cut down on delays by microseconds, in order to profit from FOREX arbitrage and things like that.
The point is, you *can* predict the weather, with quite high accuracy in fact, if you're talking about whether it will rain in the next hour. However, you can't predict if the price of a market will go up or down in the next hour, even using huge processing power applied to numerical models.
You definitely can't predict anything by scrawling a bunch of arcane, contrived lines all over a historical price chart...
I think this is the best analogy for TA... Weather forecasting.
Good point about values, until Bitcoin finds its stable value, people cannot really trade.
That's not really true; perhaps if the price had been oscillating wildly I'd agree with you - what we've had is sustained upward movement with the occasional flash crash. Merchants for one are quite happy to accept payments in Bitcoins while the price is going up (part of the reason I think bitcoinstore has been selling at a discount).
Customers might be wary about spending Bitcoins if they think the price is skyrocketing, but in practice that doesn't really seem to be the case. Especially since many of these people bought or mined their Bitcoins when the price was so low - I've had more orders since the price started going up than in the previous 7 months.
That the price is going up so steeply is ultimately a good thing for Bitcoin - by comparison with gold and silver, the higher Bitcoin's market cap is, the more stable the price should be. Silver is much more volatile than gold, because the market is so much smaller - both are highly stable by comparison with Bitcoin.
Like already said a 100 Times. Waiting for confirmation makes onnly sense for High Value Goods and for high turnover trading.
this
I sent him a tweet already, telling him he should make more effort to understand Bitcoin before he criticises it. 
He's not a technologically literate person - that's a problem; people in that situation need someone they trust to explain things to them, such as why you can't 'hack' Bitcoin in the same way as you might be able to hack PayPal, or Mt. Gox...
He's not a technologically literate person - that's a problem; people in that situation need someone they trust to explain things to them, such as why you can't 'hack' Bitcoin in the same way as you might be able to hack PayPal, or Mt. Gox...
Then maybe you should talk with Bill Still a word or two.
The Bitcoin donate button is working again - anyone care to try it out?
http://www.positivemoney.org/donate/
P.S. It's not such a stretch to see why monetary reform groups like Positive Money share common ground with advocates of Bitcoin. They want full-reserve banking - this means a more limited money supply and, crucially, removing the power to create money from commercial banks. Like it or not, it's still a way better ideal than the current system, even if it doesn't go as far as, say, adopting Bitcoin as a national currency.
http://www.positivemoney.org/donate/
P.S. It's not such a stretch to see why monetary reform groups like Positive Money share common ground with advocates of Bitcoin. They want full-reserve banking - this means a more limited money supply and, crucially, removing the power to create money from commercial banks. Like it or not, it's still a way better ideal than the current system, even if it doesn't go as far as, say, adopting Bitcoin as a national currency.
Confirmation time can only really be an issue when you spend money on the high street - online retailers are happy to wait 1 hour before they ship something to you. Even on the high street I can't see it being a problem either, consider examples like this:
If you buy a takeaway coffee for 10mBTC, chances are that most cafes will be happy to let you leave with a 0-confirmation sale - the probability of fraud is very low, and the impact of the fraud is only the price of a cup of coffee.
At the other end of the scale, if you're buying a car from a dealer for 150BTC, you will have already filled in a load of forms with your name and address, and probably shown ID, so the dealer will also probably be happy seeing you leave with zero confirmations.
Other things to point out - you could easily buy a car with a credit card, then call up your bank and say that you didn't make that purchase, and they'll cancel the transaction. You'll probably go to jail, but why wouldn't you also go to jail if you did the equivalent with Bitcoin?
We could also just use small-denomination private keys as hard currency (physical Bitcoins) for buying small things like coffee.
If you buy a takeaway coffee for 10mBTC, chances are that most cafes will be happy to let you leave with a 0-confirmation sale - the probability of fraud is very low, and the impact of the fraud is only the price of a cup of coffee.
At the other end of the scale, if you're buying a car from a dealer for 150BTC, you will have already filled in a load of forms with your name and address, and probably shown ID, so the dealer will also probably be happy seeing you leave with zero confirmations.
Other things to point out - you could easily buy a car with a credit card, then call up your bank and say that you didn't make that purchase, and they'll cancel the transaction. You'll probably go to jail, but why wouldn't you also go to jail if you did the equivalent with Bitcoin?
We could also just use small-denomination private keys as hard currency (physical Bitcoins) for buying small things like coffee.
Promoting Bitcoin - List your YouTube videos, data visualisations etc.
[Foreword: if there's already a thread for this, just tell me and I'll get involved there and delete this one]
People seemed to like hearing Trace Mayer on BBC Newsnight last week - mainly it seems because he was clear, well-informed and came across as a intelligent and eloquent advocate for Bitcoin.
There aren't enough people like him out there, and I also don't think there is enough access to clear material that explains the benefits of Bitcoin to the average person.
So, I want to put together a list here of animations / infographics / YouTube videos / data visualisations that do well in this area.
I also want to put together some animations myself to do my bit to help with promotion and education - if anyone's interested in collaborating please PM me.
I'll update the list at the top of this thread. Here's the kind of thing I'm talking about:
What is Bitcoin? (weusecoins.com) - YouTube Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Um63OQz3bjo
How a Bitcoin Transaction Works - Infographic (http://spectrum.ieee.org/img/06Bitcoin-1338412974774.jpg)
How Green is Bitcoin? - YouTube Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cclfx4FK04I)
People seemed to like hearing Trace Mayer on BBC Newsnight last week - mainly it seems because he was clear, well-informed and came across as a intelligent and eloquent advocate for Bitcoin.
There aren't enough people like him out there, and I also don't think there is enough access to clear material that explains the benefits of Bitcoin to the average person.
So, I want to put together a list here of animations / infographics / YouTube videos / data visualisations that do well in this area.
I also want to put together some animations myself to do my bit to help with promotion and education - if anyone's interested in collaborating please PM me.
I'll update the list at the top of this thread. Here's the kind of thing I'm talking about:
What is Bitcoin? (weusecoins.com) - YouTube Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=Um63OQz3bjo
How a Bitcoin Transaction Works - Infographic (http://spectrum.ieee.org/img/06Bitcoin-1338412974774.jpg)
How Green is Bitcoin? - YouTube Video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cclfx4FK04I)
So, according to the blockchain.info estimate, the average power use is 40.7 MW, which is based on 650W / GH, or 1.54 MH / J.
That would be a reasonable figure, if the network were still primarily GPU-based. I think they should update that page to reflect the entry of ASIC hardware, which is almost certainly responsible for the two-fold increase in hash rate over the last couple of months.
I'm sticking with 15 MW as a better estimate.
That would be a reasonable figure, if the network were still primarily GPU-based. I think they should update that page to reflect the entry of ASIC hardware, which is almost certainly responsible for the two-fold increase in hash rate over the last couple of months.
I'm sticking with 15 MW as a better estimate.
Would appreciate it if someone could check my back-of-the-envelope calculations here:
Network hash rate = ~60 TH/s
Assume this is composed of:
1. 30 TH/s in a mixture of GPU & FPGA units, with an average efficiency of 3 MH/J
2. 30 TH/s of new ASIC units, with an average efficiency of 100 MH/J
Therefore total power usage of the entire network is (30*10^6 / 3) + (30*10^6 / 100) = 10.3 MW
Add 50% for other associated equipment and older less efficient hardware, and say it's a round 15 MW.
I find that to be an astounding number - it's about the same power usage as a small town of ~25,000 people. You could power the entire Bitcoin network (as it is today) with little more than 10 large onshore wind turbines...
Conversely, if ASICs appear that really do offer efficiencies of 1000 MH/J, then with the same power consumption of 15 MW, the network could be secured to the tune of 15,000 TH/s.
Network hash rate = ~60 TH/s
Assume this is composed of:
1. 30 TH/s in a mixture of GPU & FPGA units, with an average efficiency of 3 MH/J
2. 30 TH/s of new ASIC units, with an average efficiency of 100 MH/J
Therefore total power usage of the entire network is (30*10^6 / 3) + (30*10^6 / 100) = 10.3 MW
Add 50% for other associated equipment and older less efficient hardware, and say it's a round 15 MW.
I find that to be an astounding number - it's about the same power usage as a small town of ~25,000 people. You could power the entire Bitcoin network (as it is today) with little more than 10 large onshore wind turbines...
Conversely, if ASICs appear that really do offer efficiencies of 1000 MH/J, then with the same power consumption of 15 MW, the network could be secured to the tune of 15,000 TH/s.
I don't know where to start with this one. Is this what journalism has come to? "Ha ha, you're nerds. Ha ha, your little currency experiment is stupid and *pointless*. Ha ha. Bitcoin is a bubble. Ha ha ha"
Her first ever article for Guardian CiF was on the Facebook IPO. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/may/18/facebook-ipos)
If you read it while replacing "Facebook" with "Bitcoin", it's almost the same article.
What the fuck is this woman's problem? She clearly hates 'geeks', and appears to be such a gargantuan idiot that she can't tell the difference between a ponzi IPO and the world's first cryptocurrency.
Her first ever article for Guardian CiF was on the Facebook IPO. (http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2012/may/18/facebook-ipos)
If you read it while replacing "Facebook" with "Bitcoin", it's almost the same article.
What the fuck is this woman's problem? She clearly hates 'geeks', and appears to be such a gargantuan idiot that she can't tell the difference between a ponzi IPO and the world's first cryptocurrency.
This has been talked about quite a bit already, but I think it's time for the exchanges to start quoting everything in milliBitcoin (mBTC). Or, cBTC (Bitcoin cents).
Primarily, I think this should be done for the benefit of new adopters, the general public, and clueless journalists. Most people aren't used to the basic idea of markets, let alone an explosive one like Bitcoin, so they see the price at $140 and think, 'that's expensive'. When, in fact, the decision to use the unit BTC is completely arbitrary. On the other hand, $0.14 / mBTC looks quite reasonable, so it might help people to make better investment decisions (i.e. buy more Bitcoin).
Primarily, I think this should be done for the benefit of new adopters, the general public, and clueless journalists. Most people aren't used to the basic idea of markets, let alone an explosive one like Bitcoin, so they see the price at $140 and think, 'that's expensive'. When, in fact, the decision to use the unit BTC is completely arbitrary. On the other hand, $0.14 / mBTC looks quite reasonable, so it might help people to make better investment decisions (i.e. buy more Bitcoin).
Selection of countries vs. Bitcoin
+-+CIA+Factbook+end+2012&chxp=0,0,250,500,750,1000|2,50&chxr=0,5,1005|1,5,100&chxs=0,676767,12.5,0,l,676767|1,676767,12.5,0.5,l,676767&chxt=x,y,x&chbh=a,5,6&chs=580x425&cht=bhs&chco=A2C180,FF9900&chds=0,1000,5,1005&chd=t:0,868,828,794,673,423,398,372,334,325,271,224,132,68,16|886&chma=30,0,30&chtt=Bitcoin+Market+Capitalisation+vs.+World+Money+Supplies+(March+27th,+2013)&chts=000000,14.5)
code:
//chart.googleapis.com/chart?chxl=0:|%240|%24250m|%24500m|%24750m|%241%2C000m|1:|Montserrat|Tonga|West+Bank|The+Gambia|Saint+Lucia|Seychelles|Cayman+Islands|Burundi|Sierra+Leone|Bhutan|Rwanda|Fiji|Turkmenistan|Aruba|Bitcoin|2:|Narrow+Money+Supply+(M1)+-+CIA+Factbook+end+2012&chxp=0,0,250,500,750,1000|2,50&chxr=0,5,1005|1,5,100&chxs=0,676767,12.5,0,l,676767|1,676767,12.5,0.5,l,676767&chxt=x,y,x&chbh=a,5,6&chs=580x425&cht=bhs&chco=A2C180,FF9900&chds=0,1000,5,1005&chd=t:0,868,828,794,673,423,398,372,334,325,271,224,132,68,16|886&chma=30,0,30&chtt=Bitcoin+Market+Capitalisation+vs.+World+Money+Supplies+(March+27th%2C+2013)&chts=000000,14.5
code:
//chart.googleapis.com/chart?chxl=0:|%240|%24250m|%24500m|%24750m|%241%2C000m|1:|Montserrat|Tonga|West+Bank|The+Gambia|Saint+Lucia|Seychelles|Cayman+Islands|Burundi|Sierra+Leone|Bhutan|Rwanda|Fiji|Turkmenistan|Aruba|Bitcoin|2:|Narrow+Money+Supply+(M1)+-+CIA+Factbook+end+2012&chxp=0,0,250,500,750,1000|2,50&chxr=0,5,1005|1,5,100&chxs=0,676767,12.5,0,l,676767|1,676767,12.5,0.5,l,676767&chxt=x,y,x&chbh=a,5,6&chs=580x425&cht=bhs&chco=A2C180,FF9900&chds=0,1000,5,1005&chd=t:0,868,828,794,673,423,398,372,334,325,271,224,132,68,16|886&chma=30,0,30&chtt=Bitcoin+Market+Capitalisation+vs.+World+Money+Supplies+(March+27th%2C+2013)&chts=000000,14.5
I should really have posted this up myself - I added the Bitcoin donate button to their website.
Will hopefully be adding a Bitcoin option to their online shop, but it's not their top priority right now. In the meantime, if anyone is interested in monetary reform - visit the site (positivemoney.org.uk).
Will hopefully be adding a Bitcoin option to their online shop, but it's not their top priority right now. In the meantime, if anyone is interested in monetary reform - visit the site (positivemoney.org.uk).
Re: 2013-03-26 - Trace Mayer on BBC Newsnight tonight at 10:30pm London need copy
The way the press (Newsnight in this case) presents Bitcoin continues to be a little bit misleading, a little bit dumb, and almost never involves interviews with anyone who really knows what they're talking about.
Trace Mayer did a really good job, but the other two interviewees were really disappointing. On the plus side, The Guardian posted an ok Bitcoin interview video the other day...
Trace Mayer did a really good job, but the other two interviewees were really disappointing. On the plus side, The Guardian posted an ok Bitcoin interview video the other day...