My point is not that. Mining got peoples interests, and that will be lost. Not the coin itself, what will be lost is the P2P system.

First you lose miners, then you lose the P2P advantage.

What you say about factories, may be in a normal unlimited market. Bitcoins are not unlimited, and it could go under before that ever happens, or it would be to late to make profitable devices in your factory.

Losing the P2P advantage of being a distributed network is a huge drawback.

Also, you assume everyone will get an ASIC device like going to a store. This was not true last year, its not true this year and probably will not be true next year.

The only ones making a profit with ASIC devices will the ones having at least XX devices ready to be hooked as soon as they can.

Who controls the ASIC chips, will control the supply chain and bitcoin mining.

You assume things in the future, while I assume things that are happening as we speak.

Yes, anyone should be able to mine, even on an old computer.

One of the things that always hated about Bitcoins, including Litecoins is that CPU is not even taking into account. Its all about GPU.

What does this mean? That servers which costs 3,000$ or 8,000$ are a complete crap vs a 500$ gaming card.

So servers are useless for the Litecoin and Bitcoin network? Servers that power this same website, the whole Internet, cloud services, you name it. They are all useless.

CPU is CPU. And before someone says, you could hire amazon cloud to mine, you can, and it would cost you more than what you would mine, that will always still be true.

Still, I GPU are available on the market and all computers have a graphic card. My point is that in order to maintain distributed hashing it should be standard computing. Not some specialize device you have to order from a single factor in Chine could take years to arrive or never.

I don´t have a problem with CPU, GPU, RAM, etc. They would all process hashes in some way on another, and they would all help process the network. The problem is when the devices are special made things which are custom chips which nobody can get. And by the time they can get them, it will be to late. The mining will be monopolized.

On a computing model it makes sense. Mining just needs to get more efficiency. But on a logical point it does not. You can´t use this devices for anything else besides Bitcoin mining and you can´t get your hands on them either unless you have some local contact or a reported which got a free unit for review from BLF, and im excluding all those poor souls that preordered last year. Even if they still receive them the same week, we still have a problem with one single chip manufacturer.

Is someone using his ASIC device to post here? No. To browser online? No. To buy or sell bitcoins? No. This are devices that serve no daily computing tasks. You are creating a digital currency which works on "one computing" system with another "computing system" that is not compatible with the same system which is supposed to be generating its currency. It makes absolutely no sense at all. Bitcoins are for the Internet, digital coins, but you can´t use digital equipment to generate them. Ironic.

The biggest thing im afraid with this issue is the danger of putting all the hash power in just a few hands. You all understand what would happen if one this huge miners get a DDOS attack, if offline for some reason or is having troubles right? Not to mention intervention, government seizure, you name it. For the first time in years, it will be very easy to kill bitcoins.

You could even start by just controlling the avalon chips or just by the factory that is producing them.

Bitcoins are in its weakest spot ever in all its history. This is why price will keep dropping until something changes. As I see, Bitcoin has now a single point of failure. Control the ASIC production and you control the Bitcoin.

Litecoin looks good, but its following the same story Bitcoin did. It was said GPU did not made a huge awful difference between CPU mining, but this is not true, Litecoin is also now on the GPU stage, so eventually, even while its harder it will try to move to ASIC again. I hope they don´t do that mistake.

Also, since nobody knows from where Bitcoins comes, at least we know who created LiteCoin, from all I know this could be an elaborated scheme coming from China itself or even persons that knew upfront 3 years back how this would evolve, by producing this chips, or just by making themselves rich by controlling the mining. That is of course all bullshit and speculation, but can you guarantee its not true? Since Bitcoins are a mystery, nobody knows from where they came, but everyone knows where they are going, it would really not be hard to speculate who knew about this from the beginning.

All I know is this. Some groups and people are destroying the bitcoins. Even while I do agree that in the future there will be almost no solo miners, a systems like this NEEDs this users to maintain its security and stability. We need users processing the network in China, Australia, New York, London, you name it. We need users all over the world, in every city, and every country. A huge networks or peers connected and processing transactions.

It was once said that to shut down bitcoins you would have to shut down the Internet. And this was only true for the reasons I stated above. This is coming to an end. It will be very easily to disrupt the Bitcoin network in the future. Its staring with miners, and then its going to move into other areas like price dropping. Finally government regulation will give it the final blow, because the network will not be big or hard enough to sustain the killing of a few big players, just like its happening with MtGox, in the future it will be a huge ASIC miner going offline.

Also, there are people collecting huge amounts of Bitcoins and not putting them back on the market. The only, and only possible way to avoid is, is if Bitcoins mining is very distributed, at least for its first years. If only a few individuals can mine most of the bitcoins, there is no incentive for them to put them back on market, they are going to hold on them like gold, in particular when prices go up.

Why is the price dropping now? Because there are allot of people with to many bitcoins and nobody is buying them. Probably a result of huge ASIC miners getting to many and trying to get rid off them.

Once you lost trust, there is no turning back. The consumer, which is the one that is supposed to be using bitcoins does not have them and if he does not trust Bitcoin itself, as a project, as a network, as an idea, he will not use it ever, and price will keep dropping and dropping.

Bitcoin is the biggest way to show how greedy we humans are. A few of them, that joined in organizations, to mine it, to produce devices that mine, or that invest in holding huge amounts, what ever you name it, the TOP number Bitcoin believers are the ones that are and will destroy it because of their own greed. When they realize it, they will start to get rid of bitcoins or trying to put them back on the market, and the prices will even plump more.

Users are speculation for over a year now about ASIC devices, and we are seeing the first batches of them entering the bitcoin network. We have now results. And they are not good. And since other users see that this devices are coming online and they cannot get them, they enter into desperation and feel left out, since they cannot get them or have any other possible way to compete, even if you have the money, you cannot just get this devices. So they turn away from bitcoin into something more stable like Litecoin and have fate that such system will not suffer the same fate.

Now, don´t get me wrong guys. I have nothing against ASIC devices, it its 2 millions devices distributed amongst 1 million users. The problem is that this is not the case. The first ones that purchased and received their ASIC devices, are funding more ASIC devices from the first batch of bitcoins they generated with this devices. This is creating a huge Ponzi Scheme and it will blow up eventually.

Some companies will go down, ASIC manufacturers, or payment processor, I don´t know, but someone will eventually try to cash their bitcoins for money and it will blow up. In particular if the first users are mining bitcoins with their ASIC devices, using this bitcoins to buy even more ASIC devices, and then again, and again and again. The systems creates a huge egocentric systems, and Bitcoins are not rolled out to users or distributed.

We are watching this on the prices. How long until one payment processor or one exchange blows up? If this does not stop, dark times will come to the bitcoin world.

This is what is going to happen with Bitcoins for new users in a few months:

You see this type of new posts? They are typical of new comers:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=248517.0

Now lets see how this would play in the future:

Newbie: So how do I get BC and mine then?

Bitcoiner: Mining

Newbie: So, I have my PC, how do I mine?

BitcoineOr f: Forget it, you can´t really mine anymore with your PC

Newbie: He? Why, I read Bitcoins are mined with computers.

Bitcoiner: That was years ago, when Bitcoins was new. Today you would mine 0,0000000000000000001 bitcoins in a one year. Today Bitcoin is mined with specialized ASIC chips in specific hardware.

Newbie: Ahh, well, I don´t want to buy anything new. I have 3 computers, so I can´t mine?

Bitcoiner: Nop.

Newbie: So how do I get this ASIC device?

Bitcoiner: You can´t. Its on a special pre-order list, they are produced very rarely and you can be months on hold.

Newbie: Ah, no problem, I can wait, I assume I would make bitcoins eventually.

Bitcoiner: Not really, once you get your ASIC device, the mining hash increased so exponentially that you would need 10 devices to even break costs at the point, and since you will be on hold again, good luck....

Newbie: So who is mining bitcoins?

Bitcoiner: Well, there is this XX corporation that has 50 clusters in a datacenter full of ASIC servers and that other foundation that also has a huge cluster that they where growing over the year. They hold most of the bitcoins this days.

Newbie: So only this 2 are mining bitcoins?

Bitcoiner: Yes. Miners are history. They don´t exist anymore.

Newbie: Ok, thanks, this surely looks like a scam


You see the problem? Trust. If bitcoins started like this, today they would not even exist.

This post resumes more or less my point of view as well:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=180020.0

Im not the only one that thinks this is going to destroy the essence of P2P on which Bitcoins is being build. Its supposed to be our network.

Personally I have to admit that more I research Litecoin it not only seems 100 times more secure than Bitcoin but its also designed to prevent this flaw, and reward a P2P system. Its basically improves on Bitcoin itself.

And I have also read several articles about math calculations which show LiteCoin is not even allot more secure but will there be ASIC devices for it? In the future, probably, but they will not be amazingly more powerful than standard computing, to the point it would not deserve investment.

The biggest flaw LiteCoin is attacked now is that their network is small and so more insecure, but this is changing amazingly fast. In particular when all those Bitcoin miners move off to mine LiteCoin.

Also, it seems that LiteCoin was created in particular for being used with standard computing which is what a digital currency should be faithful too.

Also, if this things with ASIC goes bad or good with Bitcoin, regardless of what happens, LiteCoin will be second, so it can learn on the errors of Bitcoin. I see a future where Bitcoin will be used as gold, people are going to hold it, its going to cost allot and its going to be like an investment, and LiteCoin could be actually be the real currency that people use to buy and sell on the Internet.

The second is what I want. Or it could turn really ugly to Bitcoin to the point most people start to lose interest all together, and prices start to plumb more and more.

We don´t know, its all speculation. What is not speculation is that miners which are the foundation of Bitcoin are now building LiteCoins. This is amazingly bad for Bitcoin. Their first users that promoted them are betraying the system, as they see they are kicked out by ASIC devices. Some will buy ASIC devices, some will not bother, some will lose allot in them.

On the end, only the future can tell, but all I know is this. A digital currency which is supposed to be created by users, by a P2P network should be maintained by its users in the long run. Not everyone, I understand that it can´t for ever, but Bitcoin is very new, its not even mature and theirs users are already being alienated. And those buying ASIC devices are really shooting themselves in the foot, if they think they are going to pull out anything off with a few devices.

You need to spend allot on this devices, and even so, you have your days counted. The difficulty at which ASIC devices increases the network is just absolutely ridiculous. Maybe a 50%/50% in the future would could work like suggested in that other post, but right now its moving to full and complete monopoly and by those that where supposed to protect the bitcoins. The same people are destroying it in their needs of unlimited greed.

By the time you get the device, it will also not make any bitcoins anymore. As you cannot get ASIC devices right now. There is a huge wait list of pre-orders and those will get it them before you do.

And once they do, and they are mining, when you get yours, the hash rate will be so hard, that you are not even going to pay the device in one year or more. If you even make a dime out of it.

Well try to tell someone he needs to pay you:


0000000000000000000000000000000000000,0000000000000000000000000000001, of a ultra mega micro bitcoin.

Good luck trying to convince the usual joe.

And even this is not what im talking about.

Read the whole post.

People losing wallets and bitcoins, are losing 0,1, 0,01, 0,5, 1 BC, 10 BC,

This units are or will be huge in a few years.

So if 5 million BC are lost in the world, you would need to subdivide that microbitcoins even more....

People HATE numbers. In particular those with lots of zeros in front.

Well here lies the biggest problem. Would you sell something for 10 million? If you can produce 10000 million with it and have the monopoly over production?

What makes you think this factories or produces will not just hold on purpose production? They will. It happen with diamonds, and its happening with Bitcoin.

Bitcoins will become the diamonds of e-currency, only a few big producers and some others in the delivery chain.

Its amazing how much trust some of you have, while GPU miners are disconnecting themselves every day, and they yet are able to receive even one single ASIC unit, while some others have thousand of them and are mining by the minute bitcoins.

When exactly do you think it will be right to mine with ASIC? Next year? In 3 years? I don´t see a single market left for individual miners in the next months from now. Mining is already a novelty.....

And that is very sad, because as opposed to real mining, you where supposed to be able to use your spare computing devices to grow that thing called Bitcoin.

The market prices going down will just show how right im on this as time goes on. Unless we see a dramatic shift like a change in the protocol, or different manufacturers of ASIC actually delivering on time.

Call it romance then instead of novelty. There is a reason why you, I and allot of other people spend so much time in a digital currency. Because they feel they are part of it, and help it grow.

Once you are relegated to never ever in your life be able to produce even one single coin, you feel no part in creating it.

Your must be bad a math, because what you posted is actually pure novelty. Those USB sticks where started to be sold once they generated less in one year what they even cost to purchase.

Would you spend 1000$ to make 10$ a year?

There are tons of ways better to make an investment, and buying ASIC devices right now is a huge bad deal. Unless you buy 10,000$ or 100,000$ in ASIC devices, and plan to hook them as soon as next month.

By the time those Jalapenos hit the main stream market, they will generate barely nothing at all. Their users will never pay them off, ever. You see? The company knows this, this is why they are selling them.

Also, you all fail to see, that as far as I know, Bitcoin belongs to China now.

Don´t you think there aren´t people with money in China? Not to mention people that can get chinese chips faster than you or I will ever get. If they are the only ones in the world capable of producing the chips that produce the globals Internet currency, then we have a problem. Its far from a global e-currency, if one single part of the world has a huge market advantage over the rest.

You could say the rest about standard computers right? Well no. Because when Bitcoins appeared the whole world had computers already, and the market is stable. ASIC are new, and are just hitting the market, so they will be steadily controlled, in particular because they only fulfill one purpose, make Bitcoins.

Please notice that has nothing to do with China or Chinese, which have the right to produce bitcoins like everyone else. But its like saying the Federal bank or the machine that prints money is in China.

The problem is with Bitcoins. The protocol is flawed. Standard computing fails. And if we cannot use standard computing to produce a currency which is supposed to be used in standard computing then "Houston, we have a problem."

You do not buy or trade with ASIC devices either right?

No. Mining bitcoins from a standard computer is pretty much dead.

Try Litecoins instead.

That would never really work because the gang tends to abuse smaller minorities. This is the difference between a gang system and one where law exists.

Gang tends to be mobs, they abuse smaller groups or individuals that do not agree with their opinions.

And eventually you will be a minority in at least one of the ways you think, because we all think differently.

Also, the masses tend to be stupid. And allot. Most % of the population is not composed by brilliant intelligent people, but the opposite.

Do you want idiots making rules?

It may be not be the best interests, you are right.

But greed will bring bitcoins down. The human nature of greed.

They are disrupting the bitcoin ecosystem, even if they don´t know about.

I can only see bitcoin prices dropping.

Also, you forget one huge point. Once bitcoins can´t be mined anymore, someone is supposed to process the transactions of the network.

And guess who is going to be in the best position to do it?

The huge ASIC miners. So the whole transaction systems will be so centralized that they could be fixing a % for faster processing.

Right now, ASIC devices can´t do anything but mine. I don´t know if in the future they can be modified to do something else, but the point still holds true.

Its not going to be a global peer to peer system anymore.

Care to explain?

Which one exactly? As far as I know, the US is the most free country. If you want Nazi type countries, go to Europe, UK, France, Spain, Germany, Netherlands, etc, all those are way more Nazi than the US ever was.

They even spy their Internet users looking at supposed extremist websites, this is nothing more than political censorship if you think about it.

At least the US does not hide the fact when they are discovered and you would amaze how worst it is in other places.

But the point is that its not the government that im afraid with bitcoins, its banks.

If banks where controlling bitcoin, they would say who can use them and who can´t, and sending bitcoins, to one place to another would a % of the amount, not to mention micropayments would be impossible like they are today on the Internet. Its impossible to send 1 dollar cent to one part of the world to another.

Ah gosh, Im so surprised when people think some people want Bitcoins because they are unregulated just because they want to do something illegal.

Let me tell you something, and I know anyone that traveled enough around the world knows this.

In the US, EU, and other countries, you go to a bank branch, with 0$ or 50$ and have your credit card and bank account ready to go. Yes, its all pre-filled.

This is absolutely NOT true in the rest of the world. In most places, minimum to open a bank account is anywhere between 3,000$ and 10,000$ fixed, which you need not only to open but maintain. And no credit cards there.

You see the problem? There is a huge population in this planet that is online and cannot access regular payment systems. This is the only TRUE benefit of bitcoins in terms of not being regulated or controlled. That anyone was able to get them. (was, since this is not true anymore, you can´t mine them anymore....)

You will not believe how many people want to buy something online but can´t, because PayPal is not in their country, or they have not CC or bank account, which of course PayPal requires as well.

You will not believe how many people want access to be able to pay, but can´t.

Bitcoin was a supposed to be a solution to them. Right now, its not anymore, as you need to buy them somewhere, and we are again in the same dilemma, buy them with some standard payment method.

Also, another huge benefit of Bitcoins was that merchants had a way safe to receive money without being scammed, this means chargebacks.

But there is no point for merchants if the consumers owning Bitcoins are null. And they are going to be null, if they cannot get them with their computers.

Now, I don´t care about government intervention, but do you fail to realize that then we don´t actually need Bitcoins at all? If I want something regulated, I will use the real thing like PayPal.

The only reasons I like Bitcoins, is because Bitcoin cannot shut you down. Like PayPal could if they decide this, right or wrong, its possible for the banking systems to shut down any websites payment systems right now. There are only 2 major credit card brands and PayPal is more or less a monopoly as well today.

Bitcoins is supposed to be in the hands of no specific company, so nobody is supposed to impose rules on you.

Well that is the problem. They are PRE-SELLING devices they don´t stock or even have.

They said shipping started, but its a lie. Not a single 2013 order was yet to be received. So they just say this so PayPal probably does not close their account.

You can pre-sale, if units are on the way, and you actually have them.

Butterfly Labs did not even produced the units yet. This is the problem here. Very soon they are going to receive a heavy lawsuit or probably some federal intervention for scam.

For me, nothing justifies taking months to send or deliver units they are supposed to have already.

You can´t because they are a scam. They are only selling a few devices to shut up false accusations, mainly sending devices to press as fast as they can, so they get nice reviews about how this things work, because in 1 or 2 months, they will generate 0 bitcoins.

They are a scam for this reasons:

1. They accept money on a device they did not even build yet.
2. You could wait 1 year or forever to receive it. With mining time is everything, the more time goes on, the less value your device. By the time you receive it, it could hardly even make your ROI back.
3. Amazon and every other vendor, including Sony with pre-orders on PS3, just to name one example. Only and ONLY charge the pre-order once its shipped.

This guys charge you money upfront for something they don´t own or have. And since there are not refunds, you paid AIR. Nothing.

Its a very elaborated scam. This is the reason why they are so secret about who is behind the company. Most pre-orders where used to fund themselves, and they are probably indirectly using that hardware to mine bitcoins, with that profit they though they could probably generate money to create more hardware, and basically making hardware for free. This is why Bitcoins are plumping in price.

Its going to blow up very soon, once bitcoins start to get lower and lower, as this ASIC vendors try to mine more and more, to produce their own hardware, which are supposed to send to customers. And since most customers actually never paid with real money, most with Bitcoins its like a big ponzy scheme they created without knowing.

I was aware of that already and that has nothing to do with what im posting.

If the ones producing bitcoins, (mining) are only ones which you can count with one hand, its loses trust among non bitcoin users, and it loses it romance among geeks that wanted to produce their own.

To late. ASIC manufacturers are a single monopoly.

And since mining bitcoins with standard equipment is useless, Bitcoin is now more like a specialized geek coin, not an Internet coin that everyone can generate or use.

All this articles that are gathered to newbies explaining how you can generate bitcoins with your computers, should start to rewrite themselves because its not true anymore.

And its quite ironic, because Bitcoin is supposed to be an Internet currency that works in computers, but does not need computers. Not at least the ones you use for the Internet.

This is the only reason why some people are going to LiteCoin, but Litecoin is weaker than Bitcoin and ASIC will come to them as well, because they are both based on the same principle which is completely flawed.

Organizations that where supposed to protect bitcoin from this, are actually behind mining themselves as fast and hard as they can.

On one part they promote the use of bitcoin for paying and selling, to increase online business with bitcoins, but behind doors, they hold as many as they can.

Not true, not a single ASIC vendor is shipping.

Do you mean BT Labs? They still did not shipped a single unit sold this year 2013.

And most people buying this devices are suckers, that forget something. By the time they get their devices, all of the other people that pre ordered before you, probably including last year, will hook up their device first.

This means the hashing difficulty will be 100 times or more harder when you hook yours. So that device you though would make you 10 bitcoins a month, will make you 1 a year by the time you receive it and put it online.

Not to mention all this huge guys that had access to thousands of ASIC chips before you go. Once they start to go up online, your ASIC device, regardless of how strong or big it is, will generate absolutely nothing.

And GPU mining? Will that is a laugh right now, the minute just maybe a very small % of ASIC go online, imagine when most that where sold get online...

If all of them where sold at the same time, this would have leveled fields. Why?

Because that person buying 1000 of this devices, would still not outpower all those 10,000 customers buying 1 device, which in total are still more. You get the point?

But this is not true. The companies selling this ASIC devices, are mining with them until they make no profit anymore, (Avalon) then they put theirs to sale. Others say they have limited supply but ship devices to media magazines and Internet reporters all over the Internet to increase their presales. Other ones says they are out of stock but sell behind doors 1000 devices to a specific miner of company.

All chips come exactly from the same place? Don´t you see the problem here? They are not being delivered to the consumer. Its the biggest corruption ever made, they want the cakes share first, and what they don´t realize, is that they are destroying themselves at the same time, as Bitcoin is losing value.

If Bitcoin loses its decentralized mining system, its dead. At least now. Maybe in 20 years when everyone uses it like they use PayPal, centralized mining or transaction would work, but right now? No. Bitcoin is to new, and once most bitcoins or mining are in a few hands, new users will completely feel and smell a scam. Its all about trust. Bitcoin without trust is dead.

And the ASIC market should showed that you cannot trust this ASIC vendors, they all come from the same hand and are benefiting their friends or heavy buyers first vs the normal and standard consumer.

Absolutely all 3 ASIC vendors right now are a complete scam. They used their customers money from pre-orders to fund their own ASIC mining operations.

My point is that the systems would benefit from this:

100,000 miners
100 huge miners
2 mega huge miners
1 million users miners that come and go.

And so.

VS:

3 Mega Huge Corporations miners

10 million user that mine for 1 hour and go away for ever.

You see the problem here?

The 3 Mega Huge ones, would be 3 single points of failure. When they lose power, all transactions would be hurt, when they go offline, suddenly the difficulty of mining would drop at exponential rates. When they have problems, everyone else would. They would control and be God over bitcoin, including the price as they would control most of the mining.


The system does not promote at all being decentralized, this means one user in Russia, one in New York, one in Sydney, etc.

This is what makes the whole network robust and fault tolerant.

ASIC mining will displace this, because the standard consumers cannot get this devices. By the time the usual Joe can get a small ASCI miner, it will be to late, his own device will be a piece of crap that will generate nothing and as opposed to normal computers or servers, which can be shifted to other loads, miners can´t.

Why do we need an Internet currency that does not rely on Internet computers? Your computer, that server in a datacenter, that tablet, all of them are useless for bitcoin production and network grow. They give nothing to the Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is going to special hardware, not because Bitcoin wanted, because its the logic step to do. Because Bitcoin itself is flawed to the point it does not take RAM into account, or location or bandwidth or anything what actually makes the Internet what is is.

We, the user.

That is just ridiculous. If people are losing 0.001 BC on each wallet, are you going to spend 100 times more to crack it?

Most amounts lost would be pretty much insignificant, but once you add millions of people losing tiny amounts, it will affect how many BC are in circulation.