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Showing 20 of 43 results by cspeter8
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 13/06/2014, 09:35:15 UTC
There's probably some law that force them to sell any confiscated goods. Just like they sell other stuff, they have to sell Bitcoin too, I guess.

So are they also selling seized drugs?  Roll Eyes

I don't know about them selling seize drugs.  The Gov't sells their own illegal cocaine to children, and they do not want competition cutting into their profits.  Please read http://www.infowars.com/drug-war-hypocrisy-drug-traffickings-big-money-benefits-big-brother-and-corrupt-banksters/ it is solid factual reporting.
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 11/06/2014, 12:29:04 UTC
I could call Last 6 days a flat water.

Average Trade volume within that period seems to be similar to May1-May19.

I have a feeling we should be making leg up to 800 soon.

But who could tell when the storm begins?   


Yes. And I can't emphasize enough how much that feels like September 2013, when we had to endure weeks and weeks of low price action and volume seemed to fade off into the depths of nothingness.
Yet, out of nowhere, a sudden burst of green showed up in mid October, the volume ever increasing. When this will happen is hard to know. We could go sideways for another month in the worst case, or a few more days in the best. Yet the leg to 800 will surely come at some point.

how can you be confident it will not retest the lows of mid May of $450?  Last 7 days seem to be gradually inching downwards. 
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 10/06/2014, 19:06:34 UTC
Is there any place besides btc.sx to leverage long when we start to approach the next bubble?

www.bitfinex.com

You basically borrow USD so you can buy bitcoin, using your current bitcoin holdings as collateral. The rates are very very high, close to 0.2% per DAY. On the flip side ... depositing fiat and lending it out gives you a pretty good ROI (although not as good as bitcoin itself for us bulls). The biggest risk would be that bitfinex collapses and runs away with your money.

The idea of depositing fiat seems attractive to me.  Would you like to post your referral code so that I (and you as well?) get an incentive upon my signup?
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
cspeter8
on 09/06/2014, 03:17:54 UTC
I think the top trendline fits the data better if drawn a bit steeper, crossing at a lower price, a day or two from now.  What do you think of that?
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 04/06/2014, 09:23:34 UTC
I have the memory that ruble and yuan would not be issued through debt issuance but as "pure paper" like Finnish Markka used to be some decades ago.

JFK got killed after proposing that the U.S. moved to debt-free U.S. Notes and scrapped FED-currency.
Yes!  executive order 11110, resulting in over 4 billion worth of $1 denominated silver certificates.  I heard of that with great interest also.  Regarding the Chinese Yuan article, I misread the headline: actually their currency only devalued in the last 7 days, but is up slightly over the longer term against the dollar.
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 04/06/2014, 09:13:41 UTC
This is one of the reasons I expect both a very strong bull market in Bitcoin combined with a brutal bear market in gold and other precious metals. So we could see BTC / USD in the 100,000 to 1 million range or higher and 1 oz of gold dropping to 500 USD or even below 100 USD. In effect a major transfer of wealth from gold to Bitcoin, kind of like the move from horse powered transportation to motor transportation 110 years ago.

I don't believe at all that bitcoin's rise means gold's demise. When bitcoin rises and holders diversify, a disproportionate amount is going to physical gold. I think this offsets the (also large) percentage of gold hoarders dishoarding gold to buy BTC.

Fiat is the thing I don't see anyone is interested in this scenario. It is also an instrument of slavery, because for every dollar you own, someone else is in debt the equal amount. It is shameful to have balances in most national fiats for this reason (ruble, yuan perhaps exception).

why do you see ruble or yuan a possible exception; being different from any other fiat currency?  They are all devaluating in sync with eachother across the world:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-25/welcome-currency-wars-china-yuan-devalues-most-20-years
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304856504579338583232958714 (Ruble drops to 5 year low)
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Re: What happened yesterday? (6/1/14)
by
cspeter8
on 02/06/2014, 16:58:56 UTC
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Re: NEW ATH BY END OF JULY & $5000 PER BITCOIN BY END OF YEAR
by
cspeter8
on 25/05/2014, 23:59:20 UTC
Are you guys really that optimistic? I can see over $1000 again no problem, maybe 2 max but 5k is gonna take a while longer than half a year methinks  Smiley

there has been a repeating pattern of going super-exponential, increasing 10-fold in about 60 days as panic-buying mania takes hold.
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Re: NEW ATH BY END OF JULY & $5000 PER BITCOIN BY END OF YEAR
by
cspeter8
on 25/05/2014, 23:53:25 UTC
$6000 - $20,000 by end of year I think is indicated if lining up the peaks on a semi log chart over the last few years, no?  This time I need to be careful about feeling greedy and gradually sell until mostly fiat when reaching that top area, so money is available to buy back when it establishes a seemngly endless extended downtrend is it was doing until recently.
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Re: 7 digits before the end of the year.
by
cspeter8
on 25/05/2014, 16:27:02 UTC
I think 5 digits before end of year has a significant possibility of happening.  I expect between 6000 and 11000  20,000 ATH.

I upped this a bit more after looking at straight line trendline of peak prices in http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#tgSzm1g10zm2g25zvzl
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 22/05/2014, 14:59:52 UTC
Thinks will end up getting complex very very quickly.

Build your supernode on time. Sign up for the Malla conference in June 27-29.! Smiley
where can we find the information for the Malla conference, presumably at your castle in Estonia?  Is it public, or an invitation-only kind of thing?
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 12/05/2014, 17:15:39 UTC

But if you are moderately invested (<50% of total assets), and want to buy more, this is a good time.

this raises the interesting question of the optimal % of total net worth to invest in BTC.
I believe this is a much more important question than determining exactly when to buy. Yet most of the discussion goes in timing, not wealth allocation.

Of course it is a question that each person has to reply for himself depending on his circumstances. But most people lack the framework that would help them to make a rational decision based on their investment profile.

It is useful to help people assess the value of bitcoin against the trendline to optimise timing. But it would be even more useful if we could help people understand for themselves how much BTC they should own relative to their wealth.

I am saying this because I am asking this question for myself. When I see the terms "moderately invested" for a BTC position of less than 50%, I am a bit jumping on my chair. Do you really believe that someone entering today and taking a position of 33-49% of his total assets would be only moderately invested ? I see it as very heavily invested.

If you saw BTC rise 100X or more while holding it, and BTC went from being 5% of your assets to 90% and you diversify away from BTC, it feels like getting down to "only" 50% BTC is a moderate position. But when you initially enter BTC, it is a very different thing.

Take someone who has for exemple 1 million USD in total assets and 100K yearly income. He has a house valued 600K fully paid. He has a car valued 40K. He has precious metals for 150K. He has other real-estate investments for 100K. He has liquid investments and cash for 110K.

What you are basically saying is that the guy would have to sell everything he has including metals, and take a partial mortgage on his house, and put everything in BTC, to be more than moderately invested in BTC ? This sounds way too much, don't you think ? I mean, it's maybe more than a winning bet, but is it a reasonable, responsible one ?

My personal view is : 0-1% of net worth being a small position, 2-5% moderate, 6-10% big position, 11-25% very big, 26-50% huge position, 51+% extreme position.

I would be interested to hear what people here think is a good % of total assets to hold in BTC today.

This is a very reasonable view point. I have about 50% of my total assets in BTC, but I don't own much and when I originally started buying, I think I had put in about 5%. Anybody who puts in 50% up front has an incredible appetite for risk and is probably a heavy gambler. Yet, if you have a true understanding of how revolutionary this technology is, pitted against the archaic methods it will replace, coupled with the dominance of its first mover advantage that has secured an unsurpassable hashing power, consistently increasing investment in infrastructure, and the recent sidechain revelation, it almost seems foolish not to take an otherwise extreme position. I know I wish I had understood all of this better when I first started trading. You can bet I would have put in much more than 5% of my assets.

MahaRamana I hope you start a new thread for this topic.  I suggest it does not belong here, but is an interesting topic to discuss.
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Re: Predicting uptrend now underway from bottom reached on April 11
by
cspeter8
on 06/05/2014, 01:47:10 UTC
 ok, I was wrong  ... now 423.3.  Cry
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Topic OP
Predicting uptrend now underway from bottom reached on April 11
by
cspeter8
on 05/05/2014, 16:48:58 UTC
Since April 11 when we hit about $340, we went up above $540, then retested a higher support level of about $425 on April 28 and a second time today.

Here is my prediction:

75% probability that from here we are going up, and will test new support levels that are higher than $425...  We will never see $425 again.
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Re: 200k Gox Coins in the Pipeline
by
cspeter8
on 24/04/2014, 17:13:14 UTC
Dude, are you paying any attention? Wake up! The coins are going to be liquidated privately! No Japanese Bankruptcy Liquidator, who doesn't even know what BTC is, will take the time to spread sell orders over time at public exchanges. The Court needs money NOW! Courts do not front costs if they can avoid it and they can avoid it in this case because there are plenty of wealthy bottom-feeders in this Market. All the Court needs to know is that it will get paid. They don't give two shits about angry creditors and lowly customers even if they act like they do. This is not the Court's first rodeo. It is comprised of a bunch of bureaucratic robots who are after the most amount of money possible through the path of least resistance. (i.o.w., deep discounts for big one or two lots of money!!) There's a deal already in the making that will wipe out BTC wealth at epic proportions!

The continuing notion, on this forum, that a Japanese Bankruptcy Court has some inherent sense of fairness is just plain absurd. Bankruptcy is never fair!

This all sounds right up until the last line of the 1st paragraph, suggesting BTC wealth will be wiped out.  Whoever the well-connected party is that is going to purchase the 200K bitcoin will be doing it to make a profit.  It is in their economic interest to sell with as little slippage as possible.  With a trendline of bitcoin market cap doubling every 4 months, I find it hard to accept that an extra  2% (10M BTC/200K BTC) of coin supply 'will wipe out BTC wealth at epic proportions'
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Re: July is the month!
by
cspeter8
on 05/04/2014, 13:53:44 UTC
Back when it was above 1000 I was so convinced it was going to keep climbing - so foolish I should have sold so I could buy back now for half the price.  So now I have resolved to neither buy nor sell any until we get to the next ATH, and to sell at least 30% of holdings by $5000 (or whatever Risto's straight line log chart indicates is half way above the trend).  But end of July, that's impossible to know how market sentiment will play out.  Maybe April, May, or Nov, Dec have equal probability.

Im interested to know what the next ATH is then? See thats the problem really. Are you going to sell at $1250? That would be an ATH...
No problem at all.  Lines of demarkation are always fuzzy, so split the difference - do a bit of selling (or buying if you had the vision to sell at the previous high) at multiple price points.  Just choose a strategy and stick to it.  Risto has not been right 100% of the time, no one is, but I like his strategy and vision.
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Re: July is the month!
by
cspeter8
on 05/04/2014, 12:59:03 UTC
Back when it was above 1000 I was so convinced it was going to keep climbing - so foolish I should have sold so I could buy back now for half the price.  So now I have resolved to neither buy nor sell any until we get to the next ATH, and to sell at least 30% of holdings by $5000 (or whatever Risto's straight line log chart indicates is half way above the trend).  But end of July, that's impossible to know how market sentiment will play out.  Maybe April, May, or Nov, Dec have equal probability.
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 29/03/2014, 14:16:31 UTC
Bitcoin cultists, conspiracy theories, religion?  Is this the quality TA Thread or did i knock at the wrong door?

Here is a little known fact: The term "conspiracy theory" was first coined by the CIA to deflect criticism of the Warren Commission after the assassination of President Kennedy. It does not appear in any written text before it was introduced to the public through a CIA propaganda campaign at that time. This phase is only used by people who are successfully brainwashed into using it. A limited ability to think critically is a requirement for using it when presented with uncomfortable information.

Thank you for letting us know that you are a brainwashed person with a limited capability to think logically and rationally, fonzie.
very off-topic, but wow I totally agree with this.  A year ago I thought 9/11 inside job truthers were totally nuts, but alex jones woke me up! Now I am consumed with how to wake up others- there is a battle on for our minds.   We really need to move this into another thread though!
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
cspeter8
on 19/03/2014, 08:20:16 UTC

Rpietila, I grant approval of your mansion building Wink
I second that!
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Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
by
cspeter8
on 15/03/2014, 14:14:53 UTC
With a new downtrend apparently established, is it perhaps time to update the poll question, from

Question: markets will overcome the resistance at 700 soon?

to something more like 

Question: markets will establish a new base below the 600 level soon?

Bit early to call an "establishment of downtrend", no?
Just looking at the price action over the last 7 days, I see an upward support until March 13, and since then a reversal into a downtrend.  But now as I look at it more, it does seem to be plateauing for the last 12 hours with light volume. 

Seems to me though more likely to continue to break further down than further up in the short term.