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Showing 20 of 25 results by dannyjpw
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Wanted: strategic partnershp with reputable community member (100,000+ BTC)
by
dannyjpw
on 26/02/2011, 20:58:50 UTC
you would be planning to setup BTCBanCorp would you?
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: bubble imminent
by
dannyjpw
on 26/02/2011, 20:55:53 UTC
Bytemaster speaks the truth!
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin crashing! Sell now!
by
dannyjpw
on 25/02/2011, 22:40:59 UTC
quite, what's wrong with a bit of fun?

best way for you all to make bitcoin work is to not take it too seriously.

That may sound like a silly statement but have a think about it before hitting reply.

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Topic
Board Economics
Re: demurrage instead of fees
by
dannyjpw
on 25/02/2011, 12:27:24 UTC
MarkM, I agree.

All you are talking about is the separation of the medium of exchange and store of value functions.

Oh, look, its already happened!
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Topic
Board Mining speculation
Re: Change in difficulty after block award drops from 50 to 25 BTC?
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 23:31:26 UTC
doesn't that rather depend on the USDBTC rate given that eleccy and rigs are priced in USD?
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: demurrage instead of fees
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 23:16:56 UTC
You need to distinguish between momentary profits, due to speculation, or sustained profits.

If sustained profits are on offer, more and more profit seekers enter.

In the latter case, profits will be driven to zero by competition, and then below zero.

Then some people get out, with losses.

Profits go up, people get back in.

What then is the average profit of the average player?
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: demurrage instead of fees
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 22:54:37 UTC
if the profit is the same, as you imply, then people will try to get in on the game - competition - which forces prices down.
Until costs exceed returns, then some people will get out of the game, difficulty goes back down, and it's once again more profitable. Are we talking past each other?

OK, so the profitability goes up and down as people go in and out. But what is the average profitability once you smoothe out the swings?

The original point made was that the average profit will tend toward zero.

If the average profit is above zero it must mean someone else is bearing the costs, like, your network provider.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: demurrage instead of fees
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 22:30:51 UTC
if the profit is the same, as you imply, then people will try to get in on the game - competition - which forces prices down.
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: demurrage instead of fees
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 22:20:42 UTC
which changes what exactly?
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Topic
Board Economics
Re: demurrage instead of fees
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 22:11:53 UTC
In a highly competitive market, transaction fees, and more worryingly, the network's hash/s, will converge towards zero. 

This is because a miner who discovers a new block only has to pay for the cost of proof-of-work, not for the cost of bandwidth and storage associated with that block. 


Absolutely correct, IMO. Classic externalization of costs.

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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin-like implementation of Ripple
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 21:28:04 UTC

If the average dollar moves every 8 months, in 12 months the avarage velocity of the dollar is 1.5

So what? You mean to imply a metaphor between money and water when the comparison is specious. If you have a mostly immobile  sand dune and every so often a grain is picked up by wind and moves to a nearby dune that is a more appropriate metaphor for money.

Another metaphor is is two roads. The high road moves very fast, with a small number of cars, and many collisions. This is the hot money flow.

The low road moves very slowly, and is always gridlocked. This is the saving of ordinary people.

There is an on-ramp and off ramp to the high road. This is an appropriate model. And yields a totally different way of thinking, and highlights totally different problems and solutions, than the image of water moving in pipes.

Quote
With demurrage, that number would be considerably greater. Anyway, even if you don't believe in the effects of velocity and you think it all depends on the supply, demurrage can destroy money like your fee does.

A high (or low) 'velocity' is neither here nor there. A single coin with ultra high velocity is as good, you say, as many coins with low velocity. In fact they are equivalent according to the MV=PQ.

The force you term Velocity arises from the technology associated with money, cultural norms, and imbalances like interest rate differentials. It is therefore not something that can be forced, but an emergent property of all these things.

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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin-like implementation of Ripple
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 19:40:21 UTC

The only difference in what I'm saying is how the bitcoins erode.
Your proposal is

F% of the amount is lost with each transaction
or
F is lost with each transaction

I don't know, but i guess you mean the first
My proposal is:

D% of the amount is lost annually

Hi JT, F% of the amount of each coin is lost each time its spent.

Quote

The fee with each transaction punish the spend and therefore reduces the velocity of circulation. On the other hand, the demurrage stimulates the spend and trade with the currency, because the longer you hold the money the more you lose.

Their are equal pros and cons in each case. but..

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I guess time here can be measured with the block counter.
Here we got the formula we're supposed to be talking about if we want to reach stable prices(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_supply#Monetary_exchange_equation):

MV = PQ
M is the total dollars in the nation’s money supply
V is the number of times per year each dollar is spent
P is the average price of all the goods and services sold during the year
Q is the quantity of assets, goods and services sold during the year

Demurrage increases V and make it more predictable.

...I hate that equation. Money doesn't have 'velocity' contrary to popular imagination. Most of the time a money token just sits in one location. Very occasionally it moves. At the moment, each dollar of base money moves about every 8 months. Thats not like velocity, like water thru a pipe, its more like electrons tunneling. So more of a stochastic, quantum type event than a flow.

I don't think that equation is that useful in the real world.

Secondly, you say you don't like interest but demurrage per year is not only interest, but it is imposed artifically.

Whereas what I propose, the fee charged when spent is a transaction fee , which I promise you will make more sense to everyday people than a negative nominal interest rate will do.


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For me the most important thing for me is suppressing interest, which is the reason I became interested in Ripple in the first place.

Its a shame you feel that way. You cannot load political or ideological views on a money system and expect it to succeed. Ripple is a pure system of bilateral agreements and as such there is no business for you or I to impose a particular form on these voluntary bilateral contracts. If two consenting adults would like to charge one another interest, so be it.

OTOH, the transaction fee is perfectly understandable as a fee payable to the community who enable, via the donation of their MIPS, trade to take place.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: Bitcoin-like implementation of Ripple
by
dannyjpw
on 24/02/2011, 13:42:39 UTC
To avoid inflation I have another proposal: demurrage.
The bitcoins created can lose value constantly in time so that the amount of bitcoins removed from circulation this way equals the amount created to pay the proof of work.
Obviously, the demurrage would be applied after some quantity of them are circulating (¿21M?).
The demurrage would have another benefits: suppressing interest, stimulating the circulation (that can prevent crises)...
I have posted about it here:


That is exactly what I suggested above. Bitcoins are added to the supply each time a block is solved (incentive to contribute CPU resources), but bitcoins erode each time they are transacted with. So, inflation is balanced.

The hard part IMO, is that you don't always want a balanced inflation. When the number of users of the ripple-bitcoin system is growing, you need more bitcoin liquidity. I have never believed in the built in deflation in bitcoin, it seems to me an unnecessary restriction.

So that hard part, is how the bitcoin-ripple money supply is automatically adjusted to grow with the volume of transactions, or equivalently, how a more or less fixed bitcoin velocity is maintained in this system of balanced demurrage and supply inflation.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 22/02/2011, 11:49:31 UTC
dannyjpw, I've been spending a lot of time at witcoin.com.

I pays my bitcoins to vote and post, and the content is usually fun.



that's pretty cool !
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 22/02/2011, 10:37:45 UTC

I guess that's another reason to get people using btc for g&s on the internet, especially for net-based services to which btc are particularly suited.

yes, but what would make bitcoin fly is a highly valuable service that ONLY accepts bitcoins as payment.

ideally that service would be something generated by and for the community.

a simple marketplace doesn't count because there is nothing to stop two parties, having established a co-incidence of wants, to just use dollars to settle, or another cryptocurrency for that matter.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 22/02/2011, 10:14:05 UTC

If another P2P, or other network, could put up the same hardware and energy for secure, anonymous transactions then their digital units may have similar value.

agreed, but the similar value in question may be zero, or any other number on the 'value line'.

security is a 'necessary but not sufficient' condition for establishing currency value.

demand-binding is also a necessary but not sufficient condition.

likewise, scarcity.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 22/02/2011, 09:59:48 UTC

It is conceivable that consortium of powerful banks and hedge funds who are not beholden to the current oligarchical monetary system, probably not mega-banks but mid-level up and coming like Saxobank, etc, start up something like bitcoin. They are just as sick of swallowing the costs of bailing out their bigger competiton and playing byu the shit rules coming down from on top.


I don't think that is very likely. The problem with bitcoins is that they are not scarce in the limit condition, since while the number of coins per blockchain might be limited, the number of potential block chains is essentially infinite.

IMO to make bitcoin valuable there needs to be some important service or obligation that can only be obtained or settled with bitcoins. Governments use tax and legal tender laws to establish this tension of demand. While you may or may not find such a binding-of-demand morally deplorable, it is necessary for  the creation of a successful currency, whether fiat or metal or crypto.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 21/02/2011, 22:18:13 UTC
from the same link:

Quote
Jen then sends $25.00 PPUSD to Bob's Paypal account and using the link to the escrow account, requests that the funds be released.

There is no legal basis for pursuing debt denominated in bitcoin. So if Jen defaults here Bob is hosed.

Possibly I'm wrong on the legals here, but if so I'd like to know why.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 21/02/2011, 21:49:39 UTC

You could offer call options to people who are speculating that the value will increase.

no you couldn't, because there is no market established to enforce such a contract denominated in bitcoins.

I guess you could try writing your own contract but it would be shaky ground.
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Board Bitcoin Discussion
Re: "Game over" scenario for Bitcoin
by
dannyjpw
on 21/02/2011, 21:39:39 UTC

Aside from selling one's bitcoins and buying them back later, is there a way to profit from a dropping value of Bitcoin?

why would you ask that?