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Its smart for Avalon to ship your chips because they have future orders to think about...any business that can't see past the horizon of say...next week won't be in business very long. Delaying shipping, especially purposefully, really hinders all future revenues for Avalon in this case. You KNOW Terrahash will order more chips, by way of example, but not until these orders are filled.
I think the main disconnect between our arguments is simply that I realize businesses don't benefit directly screwing people, not for long anyway. You're also totally discounting future chip orders that would be hindered by this 'two more weeks' game. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I disagree.
"I have been trading risky equities, options+futures and fx all my life both professionally and as a hobby, never seen a market with so much bullshit and scam yet at the same time so many people willing to part with their hard earned money over blind faith. Hell vegas seemed tame by comparison."
Me too, and its insane.
FWIW, my bet is on TH and Avalon, I also would have bet on KNC...but that's it.
You are missing the point though, if they fill all those orders now -> difficulty goes up significantly -> their hardware prices have to drop in accordance in order to have any future orders. So it's not that if they ship it now, someshow people will place more future orders. It's all linked back to controlling the difficulty.
There is no long term, no running a legit business planning for the future. It's a mad dash cash grab to suck in as much preorder money as they can before the difficulty hit the threshold that makes hardware prices drop to their cost basis while trying hardest to delay shipping->difficulty, after the hardware balances out then btc will trade just like any other commodity.
Well, I see your point, suffice it so say that in effect I simply disagree with your conclusion. I actually think there is a future for companies in this emerging field...that is to say...dedicated miners.
Maybe, maybe not. Keep in mind that chip sales will slow if they don't ship on a reasonable time frame. Moreover, its very hard to calculate the Net present value of these chips over the next few months, let alone years as there is no telling where difficulty will be. Keep in mind that BFL is also offering chips now, you know of KNC miner, and there will be more outfits to arise in the near future as well.
I think the safe and smart move for Avalon is to ship ASAP; most businesses would agree also. The possible reward with holding and using chips is very high, but so is the risk factor....I can't really put a number on it due to the amount of unknowns in the equation, but neither can you...and neither can Avalon...so the best move is to take money in the hand.
why is it a safe and smart move for avalon to ship the chips asap? they already took your btc, why would they ship asap? they will try to delay it as long as they could. Bfl, avalon, and knc(if it's even real) are all playing a game of chicken trying to delay as much as they can. Asic miner is playing a different game by charging such a high price that barely breaks even for the suckers who buy their hardware but at least they are not lying about shipping the hardware.
Everyone wants to buy cheap hardware and hoping for a return in a few months, avalon & bfl are not stupid they are using exactly this mass hysteria and greed to sell seemingly unbelievable cheap hardware, of course it's another story to actually get them to ship it. I can guaranteed there will not be massive shipment of anything asic from those companies, they will ship maybe 1-2 orders then delay another month or two to ship 1 more order etc..to have the appearance of trying and keep the mobs at bay.
There is no free lunch, only way to have those kind of returns is to create your own asic chips with a 500k min investment, but then once you have them YOU YOURSELF will be playing the exact same game as those guys trying not to ship it to the masses after taking their money.
My $10k bet on terrahash is 1) terrahash is one of the lucky ones to receive a chip shipment from avalon 2) keep to their word like they are trying so hard right now to appear legit, and actually ship the hardware after getting the chips, not mining in some warehouse first for a few months citing technical challenges - the temptation is undeniable - if you can have a 5 figure income per day mining using those hardware would you make up some bullshit excuse and pocket the coins instead?
I have been trading risky equities, options+futures and fx all my life both professionally and as a hobby, never seen a market with so much bullshit and scam yet at the same time so many people willing to part with their hard earned money over blind faith. Hell vegas seemed tame by comparison.
Exactly it. Unbelievably sad, but unfortunately true. If you think about it, why the heck would you sell something for 4-5 digits when it's making that for you in a single day. If you had 4 digits a day, what would make you sell the product? I sure as hell wouldn't sell, I would use it as much and as long as I possibly could. My very first question for these miners was exactly "Why would they sell and not just take all the profit for themselves?" Then it became clear with all the delays and everything that they are doing exactly that.
Its smart for Avalon to ship your chips because they have future orders to think about...any business that can't see past the horizon of say...next week won't be in business very long. Delaying shipping, especially purposefully, really hinders all future revenues for Avalon in this case. You KNOW Terrahash will order more chips, by way of example, but not until these orders are filled.
I think the main disconnect between our arguments is simply that I realize businesses don't benefit directly screwing people, not for long anyway. You're also totally discounting future chip orders that would be hindered by this 'two more weeks' game. I'm not saying you're wrong, just that I disagree.
"I have been trading risky equities, options+futures and fx all my life both professionally and as a hobby, never seen a market with so much bullshit and scam yet at the same time so many people willing to part with their hard earned money over blind faith. Hell vegas seemed tame by comparison."
Me too, and its insane.
FWIW, my bet is on TH and Avalon, I also would have bet on KNC...but that's it.
If you all aren't watching BkkCoins thread on the K-16 development and testing, I'd recommend it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190731.1620
The work on this board is likely the biggest factor in determining TH ship date.
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=190731.1620
The work on this board is likely the biggest factor in determining TH ship date.
The board is a factor but in my opinion it is not the biggest factor by a long shot. The biggest factor is asic actually shipping their chips instead of keep bull****ing us with their dog and pony show trying to delay it further while they mines more. I have zero trust in that shady outfit.
Yes, the chips are a factor, but they shipped samples, and will profit bigtime from selling as many chips as they can, so...
Errr...they'll 'profit bigtime' easier if they delay the competition they are about to supply themselves with!
Maybe, maybe not. Keep in mind that chip sales will slow if they don't ship on a reasonable time frame. Moreover, its very hard to calculate the Net present value of these chips over the next few months, let alone years as there is no telling where difficulty will be. Keep in mind that BFL is also offering chips now, you know of KNC miner, and there will be more outfits to arise in the near future as well.
I think the safe and smart move for Avalon is to ship ASAP; most businesses would agree also. The possible reward with holding and using chips is very high, but so is the risk factor....I can't really put a number on it due to the amount of unknowns in the equation, but neither can you...and neither can Avalon...so the best move is to take money in the hand.
well.. he had 20k chip already on order , people pre order a ton of chips yesterday , so today = Reorder to fullfill all the preorder that they got in ... thats sounds good to me
Dude you can only build 15 2/3 fully loaded 180Gh/s DXs per 10,000 chips!!
20K chips is a fair amount to start their process, they don't need 100K chips on hand to get units out after all. They have also stated that one should expect a 2 week lead time from when they receive chips to delivery (or maybe it was shipping).
Keep in mind that TH stated their largest order was for 2 DX's, and that was the only one...so I actually feel like they are ok since it'll take some time to get chips soldered and out the door once they have them. We'll see with the email tomorrow, but I'm feeling pretty good about TH at the moment.
I think now, just as I did a few days ago, that many people were too skittish due to TH's strange behavior the past few days/weeks to put a big $10K + order in...that leads me to believe that they can stretch out those 10,000 or 20,000 chips.
I guess this answers the question about whether Terrahash has enough chips for their pre-orders! 
Well it could also just be a question of Terrahash making sure they can keep selling miners and keep delivery dates.
In the spirit of fairness, this is exactly what they told us they were going to do, so I don't see any reason to assume this order is anything but chips to fund miners after the first 10 or 20K (hopefully 20).
We have cancelled all PayPal/BTC orders that were placed up to 8 hours ago and have not been paid yet. For the orders with Bank Transfer, we will wait till Friday evening, and cancel all the orders that have not been paid till then.
Well done, and thank you for the update.
All the Bitcoin/PayPal orders that have not been paid fully will be cancelled today. We have been misquoted, that we will wait 6-7 days. We will wait for 2-3 days for the orders marked as "Bank Transfers", for the transfers to come in.
We still need to know where 'in line' we are. I ordered within the first 20 min and made payment at the same time. If someone that just threw in 20 DX-Large and made a request for bank transfer so that he can sell his 'early orders' eats up all the first 10k avalon chips ahead of me I am certainly not interested in keeping my order. Sorry, but I think a lot of people feel the same way.
The largest order we have is 2 DX Larges.
We will send an email day after tomorrow to everyone know where they stand.
terrahash, if there's something the bitcointalk community can do to help you guys, please let us know... we all want this to go as smooth as possible.
+1 for a reasonable comment.
In all fairness, the lack of protection with an as yet untrusted seller is a bitcoin problem, and that's why many of us chose not to use it and opted for paypal/CC instead. I had the BTC and could have gotten the discount, but didn't because there wasn't enough trust yet and therefore required the protection.
So yes, solved one problem, by opening the door to another. BTC is a great technology, its just not done growing yet.
So yes, solved one problem, by opening the door to another. BTC is a great technology, its just not done growing yet.
Escrow is the solution for the problem you describe (if they would have offered it). But I'll split the difference with you:
Require a BTC deposit to reserve a position in the queue and deduct it at fair value from the fiat payment. The deposit could live in escrow if so required.
This approach would have the added benefit of filtering out many fake orders and using BTC transaction speed effectively.
Right now it seems that the written terms changed without notice: the 8 hour window became a 5 day window. Which changes the risk profile quite a bit.
Agreed, TH could have made this process much more smooth with a (very) small amount of effort.
I also think that orders should be reserved by when you PAY.
I don't quite disagree with you since I did pay instantly, but that could be problematic for anyone paying by wire, no? It sure would suck to get one of the first orders in and then be pushed back to the second batch just because you had cash in hand and had to wait 3 days for it to get transferred.
Say what you will, but paying in BTC would have solved this exact problem.
BTC orders should get priority in the order they were paid.
I understand why they might not do this, but BTC supporters should not be punished because of fiat problems.
In all fairness, the lack of protection with an as yet untrusted seller is a bitcoin problem, and that's why many of us chose not to use it and opted for paypal/CC instead. I had the BTC and could have gotten the discount, but didn't because there wasn't enough trust yet and therefore required the protection.
So yes, solved one problem, by opening the door to another. BTC is a great technology, its just not done growing yet.
I just got off the phone with the guy. He seems honest enough. Because of bank wires etc its more likely than not my order wouldn't be in the first 20,000 chip batches. I got a good vibe from the guy overall. The window for profit is so small here though so if its not in the first batch of 20,000 chips I personally think it wouldn't be worth the risk vs gain.
If there are 31 orders equivalent to 31 large 10 module DXs that's all 20k chips.
Yes there are some small orders, but of any have multiple units that 31 order number to 20k chips could be a lot less.
Others will be waiting for at least a further 100 day delivery, at which point Terrahash's focus should be on assembling chip only orders from other group buys...
Yeah, there were a lot more large orders than I anticipated. TH cleaned up today.
I just got off the phone with the guy. He seems honest enough. Because of bank wires etc its more likely than not my order wouldn't be in the first 20,000 chip batches (but its possible). He felt very confident he could get more Avalon chips quickly though for future units I got a good vibe from the guy overall.
The window for profit is so small here though so if its not in the first batch of 20,000 chips I personally think it wouldn't be worth the risk vs gain. Even if he ordered more chips today which you can assume he will there is no telling if they will beat the other ASICs to market.
The window for profit is so small here though so if its not in the first batch of 20,000 chips I personally think it wouldn't be worth the risk vs gain. Even if he ordered more chips today which you can assume he will there is no telling if they will beat the other ASICs to market.
Does this mean that they are queuing by payment time and not order #?
Updated Running totals:
5376 chips accounted for in 22 orders equals 244 chips per order. This number is probably skewed because people posting in this thread probably buy a higher than average number of chips.
10,000 chips = First 41 paid orders.
20,000 chips = First 82 paid orders.
5376 chips accounted for in 22 orders equals 244 chips per order. This number is probably skewed because people posting in this thread probably buy a higher than average number of chips.
10,000 chips = First 41 paid orders.
20,000 chips = First 82 paid orders.
Whelp, here's to hoping they had 20K on order
You bastards and your Big X'sSorry if I'm a bit slow... But why do people keep saying that it's unfair etc with the pre orders?
You do pay directly to TerraHash if you use paypal right?
You do pay directly to TerraHash if you use paypal right?
People are saying it would be unfair to reserve an order spot, then not pay for it, then sell that spot to another for a profit, without ever having paid for it. However if TH sorts by payment time, people will likely be ok with it because that wouldn't benefit the repurchaser of the original slot.
Check your spam folders? Is your email correct? I decided to spring on a K16 board via PayPal and received receipt email within a few seconds. My status says processing also.
He paid in BTC. I haven't gotten a confirmation either. Maybe they're manually issuing them (for BTC) or there is an issue being sorted.I didn't get one either guys, just a receipt from paypal, I wouldn't worry about this atm. They may manually process confirmations, or only send emails once the order moves beyond processing...IE when they get chips.
I have an unpaid order #45x for a DX-Large 10 Module with PSU that I probably won't be able to purchase if anyone is interested.
This should still be in the first batch of shipments.
This should still be in the first batch of shipments.
That's 640 chips, right there...
absurd. Here's to hoping they sort by payment and not order (which would only make sense anyway).
Can Terrahash confirm that if we are below the 460s and already paid that our order will ship in the first batch?
Or you know, where the cutoff is.
One concern I have is that it appears that there is no limit on pre-orders. That definitely doesn't sit well with me.
How can you be sure of that?
because is possible to place order for hundreds of devices without any problems..
And there's no way they have enough chips on order. Per 10,000 chip batch = 15.666666 fully loaded Terrahash DX Large miners only (at a full 180GH/s)
It would be faster now for them to buy bulk BFL chips as potentially there has been less uptake there, so may be a faster turn around. In any case there is no way Terrahash have remotely the required chips on order, and any first 15 Large DX's are probably their own.
I really hope they're going to come through, but they aren't being forthcoming with the figures you need to see yet.
I'm going to be pissed if they play games, as regardless of not investing here, I wanted to see them do this right. Accepting Paypal (thus credit cards) was a step in the right direction.
I'm not sure how many Large DX's were sold today though, and I'm not at all certain how many got in before my order, which was maybe 3 minutes after they opened up. The Large DX, recall, required a huge investment, and far greater faith than a sub $10,000 order after all. If they sold $150,000 in Large DX's in four minutes I'm going to be very surprised.
Surely they have a unit or two for themselves and a couple of friends...I would if I was assembling them and obviously the chips would be coming out of the bulk buy, clearly paying their share, etc. but 10k chips is gone in 15 2/3 of those units. I use them as a representative example. Point is you've only seen 1 10k order, so I'd imagine most buys will have to wait the 100 days for chips minimum. Also there's been nothing mentioned about the chip assembly service they were offering, that will reduce manpower on their own assembly...
Agreed, and I think in this discussion many users have forgotten that they offer the assembly service as well. I actually think they'll be able to pump out these boards though, soldering takes time, but with the amount they are doing you get really good at it really fast. Moreover, they can always outsource some assembly given their relative location and the number of electronics groups in the area. The chip count is what worries me as well, and you are right, say the first person bought 15 Large's then that's that.
I don't think they are actually holding units for themselves, as that's just a bad business decision, the NPV (net present value) of the units now would be likely negative (not worth as much as flat out selling them), they are making a decent margin here, after all, and mining simply can't keep up with that return...at least, there is no guarantee that it will. One in the hand and all. Having said that, ofc, people make bad business decisions everyday, and ASIC manufacturers have been no exception to this rule thus far
Keep in mind also, this is just the people ordering who had registered previously as well, it is in the interest of TH (even short term and clearly long term) to get chips as fast as they can and get units out as fast as they can. They can easily have double the amount of orders over the next few days.
Needless to say, this thread will be a very interesting watch over the next few days
One concern I have is that it appears that there is no limit on pre-orders. That definitely doesn't sit well with me.
How can you be sure of that?
because is possible to place order for hundreds of devices without any problems..
And there's no way they have enough chips on order. Per 10,000 chip batch = 15.666666 fully loaded Terrahash DX Large miners only (at a full 180GH/s)
It would be faster now for them to buy bulk BFL chips as potentially there has been less uptake there, so may be a faster turn around. In any case there is no way Terrahash have remotely the required chips on order, and any first 15 Large DX's are probably their own.
I really hope they're going to come through, but they aren't being forthcoming with the figures you need to see yet.
I'm going to be pissed if they play games, as regardless of not investing here, I wanted to see them do this right. Accepting Paypal (thus credit cards) was a step in the right direction.
I'm not sure how many Large DX's were sold today though, and I'm not at all certain how many got in before my order, which was maybe 3 minutes after they opened up. The Large DX, recall, required a huge investment, and far greater faith than a sub $10,000 order after all. If they sold $150,000 in Large DX's in four minutes I'm going to be very surprised.
Here are Steamboats CONFIRMED chip orders... Terrahash Pre-Order buyers, tell me how you have not been CORNHOLED.
Batch 1: Order #10177, Purchase date May 1,2013. Expected delivery date early July
Batch 2: Order #10265, Purchase date May 11,2013. Expected delivery date mid July
Batch 3: Order #10325, Purchase date May 22,2013. Expected delivery date mid/late July.
Batch 4: Order #10425, Purchase date May 28,2013. Expected delivery date late July, early Aug.
Batch 5: Order #10553, Purchase date June 5. Expected delivery date early/mid Aug.
Batch 1: Order #10177, Purchase date May 1,2013. Expected delivery date early July
Batch 2: Order #10265, Purchase date May 11,2013. Expected delivery date mid July
Batch 3: Order #10325, Purchase date May 22,2013. Expected delivery date mid/late July.
Batch 4: Order #10425, Purchase date May 28,2013. Expected delivery date late July, early Aug.
Batch 5: Order #10553, Purchase date June 5. Expected delivery date early/mid Aug.
Because we can cancel at any time (risk free) within the next 30 days (likely 45) for a full refund if TH does not prove beyond a reasonable doubt that they had a chip order on a reasonable date. FWIW its not like Avalon is running each chip order totally separate from the next, so a difference in order dates of a few days or even a week won't kill anybody as it is likely they will all ship out concurrent with one another.
Having said that, date is still unproven...which again, would be easy to do and I'm estimating TH would lose ~50% of orders if they don't prove they had it before today, which would likely leave them unable to fund their purchases from Avalon...put them in hot water (plus its illegal to do that). Nobody who paid with paypal or even credit card is fucked today, not by a longshot.
Id like to see the BTC transaction..
Yeah, I'm not sure the SS sold me either.