It is very difficult to predict or confirms that which one Bounty will be successful.
According to me if you want to find a good Bounty campaign, then make a good research about their product uniqueness, their bounty managers profile, quantity of coin & costing of coin and their strategy for project success.
After that invest your precious time and money in that project, but if feel not good about that, then just left it and search about other bounty campaigns. And always make good research about the project before joining in any bounty campaign.
You're right. The most important thing in this market is to do our own research very thoroughly. We need to see if the coin will reach soft or hard cap and if it offers something good and innovative.