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Showing 10 of 10 results by dragonmaster2
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – Dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 09/03/2018, 00:17:21 UTC
I don't see any. I think it's a very good idea. I think "ideally" the site should probably have 4 bankrolls, one for 0.5x, 1x, 2x and 4x.  (and then combine them into 1 "virtualized" bankroll).  And allow people to invest into any leveraged bankroll they want. I think combined with offsite, it would be a pretty ideal system.
I'm definitely for being able to choose the max kelly risk. The only thing keeping me from investing into the site is the crazy amount of potential volatility when a whale/whales bets for max profit (as many have seen with that multi account mega whale). There are huge potential swings in the bankroll that can occur at 1.5x kelly and even at 1x kelly. I would personally like to invest at 0.5x kelly and I'm sure many investors probably feel the same.

Also I think a per game max profit of 0.5x, 1x, and 1.5x kelly (current) should be sufficient.

With the current system that isn't necessary. If you have 10% of the bankroll before a bet, you still have 10% of the bankroll after the bet. The only time your percentage share changes is when people invest or divest.
Yes your % share of overall bankroll would change according to the kelly you set. The max profit would also be a variable % of overall bankroll (wouldn't really make a difference to players as they only see the max profit value).
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – Dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 05/03/2018, 21:42:05 UTC
I've been attempting to find a good answer to your question, and came up with a surprising realization. Your "A" guy would appear to be running a 2x kelly risk, and so we would say he has zero expected bankroll growth. We know that if the percentage you risk is twice the house edge then your expected growth is zero.

BUT... he is only risking 2x on the first bet. After that his offsite stays constant. If the house loses money, A starts risking more than 2x kelly, and if the house wins money, A finds himself risking less than 2x kelly. A isn't really using "leverage" at all. Leverage would be where he is constantly risking 2%. But this "offsite" feature means he is always risking 1% of (onsite + 50) - which is quite a different thing.

In conclusion, we can't accurately say that if you go 2x using offsite investment then you can expect 0 bankroll growth. That's not true, because kelly only talks about what happens if you are risking the same percentage of your actual bankroll on every bet, and A isn't...
Kelly is the same for both, but the chance to go bankrupt goes from 0 to X% depending on the amount of leverage. At high enough leverage, going bankrupt is almost a certainty because of variance.
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – No commission on investors & dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 01/03/2018, 03:11:28 UTC
What is it that actually goes negative when the house risks over 2x Kelly? And it can't be the expected bankroll growth, since that's simply the expected profit per bet summed (or averaged) over all the bets, which therefore is also a constant 1%.
It's the bankroll that goes negative. The casino starts losing money if the allowed bet is too high, it's a statistical certainty long term.

Here's a simple script I made that may help you wrap your head around it:
https://jsfiddle.net/089vv8wh/

It's set to 50% max profit so you can see how quickly it goes down.
Try setting it to 1x kelly or lower (and ramping up the loop count) to see positive growth.
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – No commission on investors & dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 27/02/2018, 08:57:33 UTC
Also, too big Kelly criterion does not necessarily lead to casino's loss.
Usually, to attack a such buggy casino, attacker will need much more money than a casino's bankroll. With no any garanties.
I think, it's more risky for attacker, than for a casino.

please explain in numbers what is "too big Kelly Criterion"? there are KC numbers which will ruin the casino as RHavar explained very well
2x kelly will have no growth or decline in the bankroll on average long term (although incredibly wild swings in bankroll are expected). Anything greater than 2x kelly, and you can expect bankroll to decline; the larger the kelly, the faster the decline.
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – No commission on investors & dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 27/02/2018, 02:42:02 UTC
It's just not intuitive for people to realize that despite being +EV you can still expect to keep busting due to over-leverage (and funnily enough, even after they should've learnt the hard way and lost most of their bankroll they just resorted to hacks like limiting max-bet instead of addressing the core issue)
One way to think about it that's intuitive to me, is to use extremes. So same +EV of 1% house edge, but increase allowed max profit to 100% of bankroll.

What's the chance the house will be bankrupt by a mega whale after the first bet? 49.5%

After 2 bets? 74.4975%
3 bets? 87.1212375%
4 bets? 93.496224937%
30 bets? 99.999999874%

Since anyone can challenge the house for 100% of it's bankroll at any time, bankruptcy is basically inevitable.

---

Another way to think about it that may be more intuitive, is what if max profit was 50% of the bankroll, but allowed max bet was 50x the bankroll. A whale could bet 50x the bankroll at 1.01, and basically have a 99% chance to win, and a 1% chance to lose.

Even though the whale could lose on the first round, and increase the house's bankroll by 50x, what will most likely happen is the whale will win about 50 times first. Each time the whale wins, the house bankroll will decrease by half. So by the time the whale actually loses, 50x the house bankroll will basically be nothing (1/22,517,998,136,852 of original bankroll).

---

A +EV edge has the largest impact if spread out over a large number of rolls; the lower the edge, the more it should be spread out. Let's say you played a coin toss game that's weighted 60:40 in your favor, you had $1000, and your opponent had $1000. You can choose how much you wager each toss, and you keep playing until either you or your opponent is bankrupt.

If you bet $1000 on 1 toss, that's basically a 60% you'll end up finishing the game with $2000, and 40% you finish with $0. Only an idiot would play like this (if you happened to only have 40% to win instead (-EV), then this is actually the optimal way to play).

If however, you bet $1 over several thousands of tosses, it's basically statistically guaranteed you'll bankrupt your opponent and finish the game with $2000.
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – No commission on investors & dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 26/02/2018, 14:45:12 UTC
My argument is that he was able to bet more than 1% of the bankroll.  Am I lying?

No, I am not.  He was able to bet more than 1% and RHavar and devans allowed this.  They are the liars.  Prove me otherwise without lying again. Use facts instead of insults you two criminals.
0.75%/1% is the max bet per account. 1.5% is the max bet per game. This was known since the beginning of V2.

Furthermore, a player isn't limited to playing on one account, that's been known since V1 and hasn't changed for V2.

You claim they are "lying", but they never claimed that 1% is the max bet a single person over multiple accounts can hit. That doesn't even make sense with the current game logic, and I can't even begin to think how that would even be possible.
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – No commission on investors & dilution fee lowered to 1%
by
dragonmaster2
on 26/02/2018, 06:32:56 UTC
You have forced investors into getting margin called by misrepresenting the kelly criterion exposure, even though you say "bustadice[/bustabit] keeps track of your offsite investment and automatically adjusts your leverage to ensure that you are always exposed to the optimal amount of risk.".  This is a lie.

You claimed that a single player could only bet 1% of the bankroll, when in fact, a player can bet over three accounts (ie: whatevs, whatevvs, whatevvs) and win up to 1.5% of the bankroll.

You've taken no steps to prevent this from happening.  You have not warned investors that this has been actively taken place for a while and that their offsite investments are exposed to higher criterion levels that they agreed to based on your words lie!

You and RHavar keep lying and you've cost investors millions of dollars while you have profited over a million dollars yourself.
It was made pretty clear that the onsite/offsite is meant to represent your investment onsite and offsite. Pretty sure both Daniel and Ryan also made it clear that you probably shouldn't set the offsite to something you don't have, otherwise you would be over-risking yourself.

A single player/account can only win 0.75/1% of the bankroll before automatically being cashed out. It was always clear that the max profit for the entire game was 1.5%, before everyone is cashed out. This info has always been in the FAQs.
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – The original crash game
by
dragonmaster2
on 13/02/2018, 22:34:50 UTC
Site just dropped another 500 btc. It dropped over 700 at one point (over 35% of the bankroll)!
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Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – The original crash game
by
dragonmaster2
on 09/02/2018, 14:09:36 UTC
I think another thing to take note of is that max profit was much harder to hit in V1 as the maxBet was capped at 1 btc. So hitting 60 btc only happened roughly 1/60 times. Even assuming max profit was 0.75% instead of 3% and max profit was 20 btc, that's still 1/20 times.

With the new system, you can bet the max profit and hit it roughly 1/2 times. That's 30x higher than before, 10x higher if you assume V1 max profit was 20 btc at 0.75%. V1 was an order of magnitude safer in terms of bankroll fluctuation since kelly/double kelly were hit that much less often.

I still feel that it's not great that double kelly is possible + hit so often when there's 2 accounts used. Yesterday there were 2 sets of 2 accounts that hit double kelly repeatedly: pineappleswrl & offtheshits, xxxrip & perrrrs (all the same guy)

Quote
Honestly, I think what bustabit really needs is a bigger bankroll at the moment.  Grin
I feel that because max bet isn't 1 BTC but always scales with the max profit, that no matter how large the bankroll, as long as there are whales willing to repeatedly hit double kelly, the bankroll will always be at risk of large fluctuations.
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Topic
Board Gambling
Re: bustabit v2 – The original crash game
by
dragonmaster2
on 09/02/2018, 12:35:26 UTC
To protect investors, the most a single player can win in one game is 0.75 % of the bankroll, in line with the Kelly criterion. If a player were to win more than that, he will be forced to cash out. In addition, if all players in a game combined would win more than 1.5 % of the bankroll, they are also forced to cash out.

If 0.75% is the kelly, are you not worried that double that might be too high? The bankroll just lost over 200 btc to a player running 2 accounts to repeatedly hit that combined 1.5%.