I've seen several technical analysis pieces of Bitcoin and other cryptos that use fibonacci extensions to measure price movements.

I've tried doing it myself but very often the price goes way beyond the extensions and that's apparently because you need to use Logarithmic extensions.

Unless someone knows how to get log extensions/retracements, I was wondering if anyone has a way to calculate them?

Thanks

Rynindaclem, are you implying that wave B is complete and we have now resumed the downtrend, or is there still a possibility that we have a wave 5 of B to go?

Possible count on Bitfinex. Wave c could easily go lower as long as it stays above $389. It could also have just completed but would look better with another drop.

Possible short term count.

Looks like a triangle is shaping up before we resume the uptrend to find a C wave top of the B wave of the full correction since the $1163 high. However, if we break the ~$380 level, BTC will likely resume the downtrend straightaway.

Two counts I'm seeing at the moment, one pushing the price up, the other down.

As the triangle is going to end soon, we should see some price movement in the next hours/day.

Your 5 could also be a iii of 5.

Got this message when I logged in today.

Bitstamp users are now required to declare if they are a US citizen, resident or tax person.

David Alcindor's count doesn't make much sense tbh.

Could be an expanding B-wave triangle if we cross the previous $318 top.

Lol, just realised that my (A) and (B) should be placed instead of A and B in my chart, but that doesn't affect the count that is currently playing out. Will update over the weekend. Feel free to check my page but I'll post the charts on here as well. I'm still a novice though, so I do make mistakes.

Updated chart from before with the latest price movements. You can also find it in the comments of the article I posted yesterday, BTCUSD Short Term Corrective Rally.

EW theory basically tracks market sentiment so panic is what's going to trigger sub-$100 prices. Please note that with EW, nothing is set in stone and there are almost always alternative counts or extensions that can play out. That's the beauty of EW theory, it is made of a series of rules that are flexible enough to allow for changes in sentiment at any point in time.

Well, assuming the count I posted plays out (that or a rise to ~$292) then we are very likely going to visit sub $100 levels at some point next year, in the mid to high double-digits. A great buying opportunity for everyone but, coincidentally, many will be hesitant to buy fearing lower lows or worse, that Bitcoin has capitulated and will consequently miss out on this opportunity.

The pattern is slightly different but similar overall. We are looking at corrective patterns in both cases.

My take on the current price movement. The first fib levels represent the extension of Wave (A) to estimate levels for Wave (C). The second scale represents the extension of Wave 1 of C to estimate the levels for Wave 5 of C. It's possible that Wave (C) will be topping near the $273 mark as the 1.618 extension of Wave (A), assuming my count is valid.

Agreed. What I was trying to say is that it will follow the simple wave trends (5 up, 3 down) while all other rules such as overlappings, fib retracements won't necessarily be followed. So I still see the bull run as an extended (3)rd wave made up of 5 waves and a long corrective wave (4), before the next rise.

I don't see why it would be impossible for LTCBTC to follow a count. Since Litecoin, like all other major cryptocurrencies with large enough volumes, is inexorably tied to its big brother, it will follow a similar pattern and the LTCBTC trend should therefore be bound by the general EW rules.

I do agree, however, that because LTCBTC trades in much smaller volumes than LTCUSD or LTCCNY, the price won't necessarily follow the Fibonacci retracements and extensions (in the commentary of the article linked above, I did mention that the price could go lower than the 94% retracement). Still, it should follow the general rules of impulsive and corrective waves (5-3, a-b-c etc.).

I tried playing with Elliott Wave theory on LTCBTC and the medium term prospect looks considerably more bearish than Bitcoin. Still, a huge buying opportunity lies ahead for Litecoin. FWIW.

LTCBTC - Patience Pays $$$

There is also the possibility that we just completed Wave 2 of the final move down, having reached the 61.8% retracement of Wave 1:

Yeah, ltc is really volatile! Trying to identify a count isn't easy but on LTCBTC it looks like we're either going through a Wave 4 of C or a new X assuming a corrective ABC move has completed. If the latter is true, this means that the subsequent downtrend will probably last anywhere between 1-2 years.