Can the spam ever exceed 4MB? No.
Of course it can. Legacy nodes don't see blocks bigger than 1 MB. Segwit nodes don't see blocks bigger than 4 MB. But it is possible to make yet another soft-fork, where blocks would be unlimited, just like it is in BSV. It is only a matter of getting a hashrate majority on your side. Consensus is not protected from coordinated block size increase in any way, and Segwit can clearly show, how to deploy things like that in practice.
Is it making it impossible to run a node? No.
Not yet. But even today, when the size of the chain takes hundreds of GB, and where synchronizing a node can take weeks, many users decide to not run any node at all, and rely only on SPV wallet, or on block explorers, or even on exchanges, or contracts like CFD, which don't have to touch any real blockchain at all.
And it is very unlikely, that people will massively start running P2P nodes. It is much more likely, that they will pick more centralized solutions, just because they are more convenient. Only when people will start losing money, like it was in 2008, then they will switch to something better, when there will be no other choice.
Is it stopping Bitcoin from working as intended as money? No.
Of course it is. If you have a lot of non-monetary transactions, and they pay higher fees, then they take place of regular transactions. You can confirm this transaction or that transaction, in a given block. You cannot confirm both, if there is not enough room in a block.
Also, if miners would decide, to send self-transfers with 100% transaction fees, then they could block all users from transacting, for arbitrary long period of time. As long as hashrate majority would get these coins back in fees, the protocol would work. And the same could happen, if hashrate majority would decide to produce only empty blocks, but then, it is obvious to everyone, that some attack is ongoing.
Personally I don't really see what the issue is.
It is quite simple: if miners could change their policy, and nodes would follow miners, then it would mean, that miners can lift more and more limits, and nodes would always follow them. Which would turn miners into a position, where they could start making decisions about the protocol.
Because this is a new attack. Earlier, miners followed Bitcoin Core implementation, and what users wanted, to produce the most valuable coin. But now, some mining pools simply make their own rules, and if hashrate majority would follow, then it would cause node operators, and software developers, to lift next limits, and to give miners more power, than they should have.
The border is not yet known. What if miners would decide to activate a soft-fork, which would give them more coins through things like tail supply? Nobody knows yet, but I am pretty sure, that all possible limits will be tested in the future in practice. Some of them may lead to altcoins, many of them may die, or turn out to be irrelevant, but remember: attacks only get stronger. And people know enough, to not repeat the same mistakes, as BCH or BSV did.
Also note, that protocols like Ordinals, are built on top of BTC, instead of having their own chain. Because they know, that attacking the king of crypto, makes their buggy protocols and tokens worth more. So, I expect even more non-monetary transactions on-chain. Bitcoin will become a cloud storage, unless some users will decide to put some protections, and process only a subset of mainnet traffic. Otherwise, people will be spammed, until they give up.
it would still be a fork nonetheless
There is no need to make any forks, to process less transactions, than the main chain is processing. It can be done without any forking.
To get the heaviest chain of block headers, you have to consume only 80-byte block headers. For everything else, you can use ZK proofs, or other things. You are never forced to store the content of transactions in plaintext. The only thing you have to know, is if a given block is valid, or not. And beyond that, you have to store your own transactions. But you don't have to process someone else's transactions, if you don't want to. There is no consensus rule, which would say so.
A fork, even if intended only for signalling, could still send or receive coins by nodes running under that ruleset. Given this, I think a price would naturally emerge over time.
There is no need to "fork" anything. If miners would put "I hate Ordinals" in their coinbase transaction, or tweak some bit in block version, then it would never split the chain. The fork could happen only, if one group of nodes would react to a signal, by marking some block as "invalid". If both groups accept all blocks, then there is no fork, it is then only a meaningless statistics.