Any attempt at technical analysis without accounting for movements by people with a lot of money manipulating it, is pointless really. This is a far better write-up about what's been going on:

http://www.reddit.com/r/dogecoin/comments/1xd6gl/shibe_market_analysis_manipulation_the_resilience/

The block time is random, but with a high enough % of the total hash rate (say 10%), you can reduce that random factor by quite a lot, to the point where the block time averages out to 10/min easily. Such a pool will not have to wait 8 hours for a block, but the variance is probably on the order of 5-15 minutes. That leads to very consistent and less spiky payouts.

It hit 280 on cryptsy yesterday, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it do that today as well, or even surpass it. Max on BTER was 298, so going past the magic 300 limit is a possibility. Looking at the walls, there's 60 BTC at 275, 42 at 280, 33 at 282, 30 at 289, 65 at 290, 60 at 296, 79 at 299 and 89 at 300. A couple of walls at 303, 306 and 307 as well.. after that it's fairly quiet until you get closer to 400.

I agree that keeping the 10k mining reward sounds like a good idea - it'll help give doge legs beyond just the first year, and give the currency time to find a home/use among more users than just currency traders and people speculating. It also ensures the integrity and security of transactions since people will keep mining it (though not necessarily to the degree we see now).

Your numbers-fu is off. The block reward after 600k blocks is a fixed number, not %. That means that percentage wise the actual inflation rate will go down over time as the ratio of total coins in circulation gets significantly larger than the non-increasing block reward.

Umm.. if you check their web site, they're only showing 160 BTC un-exchanged, not 544. Balance is the amount banked, and being paid out to miners.

Though I must say I'm amused at the moon they added to the graph .

You haf to learn to luv da pump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZqfUzax3kE

You know.. for all our complaining, I just remembered it could be worse. I had 300k doge stuck on Coins-E for 10 days, and received no communication from them at all until they finally fixed it.

BTER isn't the problem - having your coins stuck in the outgoing queue on Cryptsy is. See original post.

Lucky you - half of my doge are stuck pending withdrawal from cryptsy for several hours now. After this I'm only doing test transfers of a couple thou doge to/from cryptsy before doing the main transfer.

A bit off-track here, but does anyone know of a link or explanation for all the stats that the pool sites have? I'm thinking of things like target variance, average efficiency, rate est. etc.

BTER now: 280. Cryptsy: 240. If only Cryptsy deposits didn't take forever and a day...

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/8126588/9000.png

It's over 9000!

Middlecoin has about 138 BTC left that it hasn't exchanged. Before the dump, they had 226 - it's a lot, but nothing like those whales blew through at 210 and 230.

Not if they use PPLNS. That gives everyone a fair share based on their hashing power, and big pools find blocks more often, leading to more even and predictable payouts. When looking at a new pool, I always check the last 20 blocks page if it's available, and if the times for blocks being found is very uneven, or the time between each block found is long, I look for another one.

I see 178 - guess China woke up. I can forget about buying those doge I sold at 90 now.

Also saw a 10M sale at 150 just now - that had to suck.

I like Dogehouse too, but when the hash rate spikes, the web interface goes down until the PPLNS shares are fully calculated and you'll have to wait quite a bit until it's finished before you'll get your coins (even with auto-payout set). For the sake of current dogehouse users, I recommend trying somewhere else .

So I was looking at the list of richest doge addresses ( http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-dogecoin-addresses.html ), and came across these two odd ones:

#1 http://bitinfocharts.com/dogecoin/address/DU4wp32x4kvHHqnhPXJ1LnzsS48LedJvbi

Note that it's just sending 1 M doge in and out all the time - it looks kind of like a script, but it makes me wonder if it's a bad one, since the total amount of Doge seems to be going down over time.

#3 http://bitinfocharts.com/dogecoin/address/DDTtqnuZ5kfRT5qh2c7sNtqrJmV3iXYdGG

It's just receiving 10 M doge constantly. And that's it, no withdrawals. The only thing that varies is the time intervals. It kind of scares me to know that so much money is tied up into these accounts, and what would happen to the exchange rate if they decided it was time to cash out.

Something is wrong with that transfer - note 0 confirmations. Doubt Cryptsy is at fault for that one.

Not with this hashrate and difficulty it won't. Current net hash is 70 Gh/s - for reference Litecoin, which is the only scrypt coin with a higher market cap at this rate, has 125 Gh/s. I can easily see some miners jumping ship from LTC to DOGE, making up for that.