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Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 12/11/2014, 14:09:48 UTC
Any ideas why the dumping today?
Thought the downtrend is behind us..  Sad
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 13/10/2014, 20:43:17 UTC
I created a "wall observer" thread in the Monero forum, if you feel like moving the discussion there..
https://forum.monero.cc/2/economics-and-trading/57/wall-observer-xmr-btc-monero-price-movement-tracking-discussion
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 13/10/2014, 20:37:43 UTC
Quote
Bitcoin used to have Silk Road which brought constant demand for bitcoins, we need similar things for Monero. I think non-kosher money is not the way we should engage actively but this type of projects like Risto's one.
Those projects, when successfully monetized, will bring large amounts of money (I am talking here about not millions but tens of millions, even hundreds of millions usd). If the game is done optimally and it is marketed the best possible ways. it might be a huge success and bring tons of non-crypto people to Monero-community.

Something that hit me today ... and this might be impossible to do.  I think that either Edward Snoden or Wikileaks could see the value in an anonymous cryptocurrency.  These seem like more legitimate causes that could benefit from anonymous currency than the blackmarket or ISIS Funding

In the same breath - getting Snowden or Assange to advertise your anonomous cryptocurrency might be a tough thing to do.  If someone pledged enough XMR to make it worthwhile to get a donate button on wikileaks it might work for advertisement (get picked up on coindesk, etc).

I'd feel more comfortable sending XMR than BTC to either of these projects ...
+1
These are the things that got me interested in Monero in the first place.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 13/10/2014, 11:53:10 UTC
So rather than overcoming a 15 minute learning gap, you'd rather place your money in someone else's API, who is in control of likely 7.5% of the mint, even after they've been hacked in the last year, and Mt. Gox, and everything else? I'm not trying to be accusatory here, just stating what I see.

So collectively, I see that many people (With at least a representative ~7.5% of the mint) would rather have point-and-click operation with no functionality (as the 'coins' you see on the exchange are just representative of the value that you're owed, and not actual value tokens), over typing an average of five words on a command line with full functionality of what cryptonote offers you?
It's not about the learning curve, it's about the fact that I can't do anything on my laptop when running Monero. Because of this I can only run it when I actually want to use it, but then I have to wait for ages for syncing, or have to re-download the blockchain.

I have to ask, for speculation purposes, what is it, exactly, that people think they have bought?
1. The promise of a truly anonymous cryptocurrency with a fair launch.
2. A strong development team & active community that can fulfill the promise.
Currently I evaluate #2 less highly than when I bought.

Additionally, I'd like to point out that I think lower prices are great for higher adoption. So, do people think adoption would suffer if price rises upon release of a GUI wallet, or would adoption fuel a rise in price after release of a GUI? So, if the GUI was already 'priced in', could adoption suffer because the price increased to matched the hype related to a government GUI, or if the GUI was somehow prevented from being 'priced in' before its actual release would adoption then be helped?

Further, what do people view adoption as? Is adoption the moment the software is downloaded and run on your computer, or the moment you click buy on poloniex? I think that's a very important question. My personal view is that adoption is the moment the software is downloaded and run on my computer, and then used for its intended purpose. As this is a currency, the intended purpose would likely be to transact with it. So, as a third question, could adoption be the moment you transact with the software on your computer?

So, other than exchanges and the pending MEW game, what can I use this for to transact in?

Edit: Consider that you can purchase plots of land on the moon right now. Did you buy this as a gag for friends and family, did you purchase with the intent to hold onto it to pass down to your children in case the plot of land becomes claimable, or do you really think you're gonna go and move to the moon tomorrow? Maybe this is a weak analogy, but I consider that anyone who has not downloaded this software and used it on their computer to have not really adopted the coin, in the same way they don't intend to move to the Moon.
Monero is purely a speculative vehicle, and it will take very long time before real adoption is driving the price. Even in bitcoin speculation is what driving the price, and not adoption, although real adoption levels are certainly part of the speculative value.
Declining prices are bad for adoption, why would I tell my friends about my investment if I'm down 40%? why would I donate to the dev team? why would I spend my free time on developing services? Rationally, I should because that is what might actually prop my investment, but psychologically it's not that easy to do.
The DB & GUI are also part of the speculative value, because they are both necessary for adoption and are part of the confidence people have in the dev team. So, I think their release will drive up the price, which will put current holders in a position to help increase adoption.
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Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 12/10/2014, 21:58:14 UTC
I'm curious why people think the (two) third party GUI wallets are so insufficient they are hurting the market. For comparison purposes, most Bitcoin users today use third party wallets such as Electrum (or web wallets -- also third party). I would expect this to be more normal than not as a coin matures.

1. Don't like
2. Don't trust
3. Don't know about
4. Can't get to work
5. Doesn't support preferred platform (the .NET one is Windows-only; supposedly the other one is cross platform, but I haven't tried it)
6. other?

Quote
where's this rumor?

On this thread apparently.


To me it's mostly about confidence in the dev team. I want to know that there is a clear roadmap, and what is promised, is being delivered. As far as I understand the developers that are doing the GUI are not those who handled the crisis, still fluffypony said it was put on the backburner, which I don't quite get.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 12/10/2014, 17:02:16 UTC
the only reason I am not buying more is that there will probably be a serious competitor in the next 6-8 months. otherwise I would buy much more.

there is place for one serious private ledger and that one will be very very powerful in the long term


moneros chances to be that one are quite high

If there is no GUI wallet before this then It will all be downhill.

Hey look I'm in a Moderated topic. This post will be deleted because I'm not delusional.
That's not fair, and not how moderation in Monero happened in the past. Obvious trolling is deleted, rational criticism and speculation is not.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 12/10/2014, 14:44:10 UTC
Bid side collapsed hard, volume too. market seems exhausted. where do we go?
Yea.. forum activity and participation of prominent members also on the decline. I think there is overall disappointment that the database and GUI, which were just around the corner two months ago are still not here. I guess the majority of investors are in the red, which doesn't add much to the enthusiasm..
I started developing a service based on XMR, but put it on hold until I see clear signs that things are going in the right direction.

I think it's the fear hanging around (see McHaggis' reply), not what you've stated above. The devs never gave a timeline for these things. So basicly that can't lead to disappointment.
Yes I guess the fear is also contributing to the situation, today is the 12th, which is the final deadline BCX gave, we'll see how the market behaves tomorrow.. My assumption is that many sold due to the threat, but will not be in a hurry to buy back in when the threat is gone due to the reasons I stated above. The fact that they didn't give a timeline does not mean there was no expectation, just go over the various threads, and see how many people asked about the DB & GUI, I'm pretty sure there is disappointment. I remember that ItsAboutSharing stated that he is not buying the dips because of the absence of GUI. I didn't sell anything, but also not increasing my stash due to this. The developers have clearly shown their ability to handle crisis, which is great. But they haven't shown their ability to deliver substantial core features yet.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 12/10/2014, 11:49:41 UTC
Bid side collapsed hard, volume too. market seems exhausted. where do we go?
Yea.. forum activity and participation of prominent members also on the decline. I think there is overall disappointment that the database and GUI, which were just around the corner two months ago are still not here. I guess the majority of investors are in the red, which doesn't add much to the enthusiasm..
I started developing a service based on XMR, but put it on hold until I see clear signs that things are going in the right direction.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 11/10/2014, 10:33:07 UTC
How do you interpret that bid megawalls of +30000 coins?
Risto giving liquidity to the market (also ask walls)
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 06/10/2014, 20:16:37 UTC
Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

My intention (along with some that the others have already interpreted), has been to elucidate the asymmetry between the impact needed for price going down and price going up.

Currently, to force the price down 10%, one needs to sell 39,000 XMR. About ~9 people have this amount if they sell it all. Needless to say, it is unlikely that the price would go down unless many of them combine to sell large parts of their holdings.

To keep the price from going down 10%, one needs to absorb the 39,000 XMR by selling 100 BTC. There are 10,000 people in the world with 100 BTC, and if fiat holders are taken into account, the number rises to high 100s of millions(!).

Therefore, any 1 out of 100s of millions can keep the price up (or make it go up, which is analoguous), but it takes concerted (in)action of several out of ~9 to make it go down.





ok, this is an interesting argument, quite different from the initial one. Sorry if I was too harsh in my previous comment, I think it's very important that you and other prominent figures in the XMR scene will stay honest and rational.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 06/10/2014, 19:14:35 UTC
Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..  

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.



The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?

wtf, I fail to see how any "believer" should be "forced" to buy all the coins and support the market alone.

only peep complaining about the price are trolls using to bash Monero once again (not saying you are one!)
Have you actually read the discussion? I was replying to smooth, who came up with that theory. I certainly don't think any "believer" should or would hold the price for the rest.
I can understand the "Troll" paranoia after what we have been through in the last couple of months, but please do make an effort to discern Trolling and honest discussion.
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 06/10/2014, 18:56:12 UTC
Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair.. 

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.



The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 06/10/2014, 18:31:17 UTC
Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.


Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..  
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 06/10/2014, 18:03:46 UTC
Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.
I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

   
Post
Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: [XMR] Moderated Monero General Discussion Thread
by
freebud
on 02/10/2014, 17:06:51 UTC
Double the total coin supply.  Then change emission curve to something closer to BBR's emission curve?

I'd be on board with that.  Be ready for a price tank.
Could you please explain why this would tank the price?
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Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: [XMR] Moderated Monero General Discussion Thread
by
freebud
on 02/10/2014, 16:18:20 UTC
Without GUI, adoption will remain sluggish. With sluggish adoption, not only will price be pressured, but more importantly - and this is a coin killer - the emission will run its course to the point that XMR will considered to be a "community premine" despite all our good heroic efforts.

Since changing the emission also can be considered to be a premine of sorts, we are between a rock and a hard place with (yet) no solutions that would have the unanimous support of everybody.

I can also be wrong concerning the future perception of "community premine".
Difficult situation indeed.. I think that XMR is not yet ready for increased adoption, as there are still issues with the anonymity, which is the most fundamental offering.
Releasing a GUI without solving those issues will just lure unsuspecting users into using it carelessly, which might actually put people in danger.
Maybe we can change the emission such that it will continue it's fast pace for a longer period?
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Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 02/10/2014, 10:02:52 UTC
I have been on holydays and disconnected from the breaking news. Can someone point me to that BCX threat thread?
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789978.0
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 02/10/2014, 08:46:33 UTC
2 da m00n or 2 da dungeon?


I think the price is still under the fear from BCX "attack". He comes on every few days and says he "still has time" ( it was 22 days....)
Until that threat is resolved either way we aren't moving much up or down.

I don't believe anyone with money to move the markets is waiting on that. Weak hands sold, strong hands held, new hands are buying. Business as usual. With a little less Monero-centric worldview you could see that Bitcoin and alts are fighting for their life, so a low price is just sympathy.

The price crashed within 5 minutes of BCX threat on Poloniex trollbox, with very large volume. It seemed that at least one very large holder did cash out because of the threat.
You may call him "weak hand", but certainly he had enough to move the market.
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [BBR] Boolberry: Privacy and Security - Guaranteed[Bittrex/Poloniex]GPU Released
by
freebud
on 25/09/2014, 07:27:32 UTC


https://github.com/fluffypony/bitmonero/commit/014708fe71c1379af281ca9ac17e82c159e98e6d

lol Smiley

Monero devs (particular fluffypony) have no idea what they do Smiley



So is Boolberry's "get ahead" plan to openly insult others in their thread? So much for jl777's claim of us being "cryptonote brothers".

Look, it's been a rough couple of days, and we're all completely exhausted from sitting on the edge of our seat waiting for some phantom attack. You go and drop this bomb-shell of a post on Bitcointalk about how you've found some breaking issue that affects every CN coin and say that you urgently need to alert all of the exchanges. Understandably, given the context and the apparent looming threat, we're going to look at the commit and assume this is something that needs urgent attention. We made a judgement call, added it, and reverted the commit within minutes.

Now you may say that we're not cautious enough. You may call us reactionary under pressure. You may even rightfully say that we are unfamiliar with a codebase we did not write. All of this is true. But to say we "have no idea what [we] do", and to personally insult me? That's uncalled for and unnecessary, and is a terribly weak attempt to make yourself look good. Let me save you the hassle for next time: you are a very accomplished coder. Clearly you can churn out code like there's no tomorrow. There, now next time you won't feel the need to insult me or insult us, you can just quote this post and pat yourself on the back.

You need to seriously give some thought to the way your very public actions reflect on the cryptocurrency that you and you alone control.

hey, man, may be there is no tomorrow for Monero, but not for Boolberry.


fluffypony, didn't know that you so sensetive after all that you was saing before about me and our project.
But, anyway i'm pleased to know that you trust me so much that pull my commits without even read it.

Notice: If someone want to push few exploits into monero code, you know how to reach me Smiley


PS: Storm is over, relax and have a some fun, eveyone do mistakes, don't take seriously my joke.


Guys, you are all doing a wonderful thing, you contribute to one of the most important technologies for the future of humanity. Your names will be remembered for ever in the history books of the free world (I mean really free, not the American "free world"). Just close your eyes and think about the big picture and how important your job is.. forget these petty ego wars, please.. 
Post
Topic
Board Speculation (Altcoins)
Re: [XMR] Monero Speculation
by
freebud
on 17/09/2014, 08:16:44 UTC
When Monero can have some use for private transaction, so that its usefulness is proven, then it will fly. Before that, it is all speculation.

I think the most compelling case at the moment, which will get many bitcoiners interested is a mixing service based on Monero, which will automate all the hassle of doing it through exchanges. I imagine an instant two way exchange service, which does not require login. Coupled with a small app, which sends bitcoins to the service, receive Monero, send to another Monero account, send Monero back to the service, and get back clean bitcoins.
Almost every day there is a question about safe mixing on r/bitcoin, and the only real way seem to be through Monero.