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Board Economics
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New research: Using Time-Series and Sentiment Analysis to Detect the Determinant
by
gmg
on 27/05/2015, 05:51:40 UTC

Using Time-Series and Sentiment Analysis to Detect the Determinants of Bitcoin Prices

See http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2607167

Abstract:     
This paper uses time-series analysis to study the relationship between Bitcoin prices and fundamental economic variables, technological factors and measurements of collective mood derived from Twitter feeds. Sentiment analysis has been performed on a daily basis through the utilization of a state-of-the-art machine learning algorithm, namely Support Vector Machines (SVMs). A series of short-run regressions shows that the Twitter sentiment ratio is positively correlated with Bitcoin prices. The short-run analysis also reveals that the number of Wikipedia search queries (showing the degree of public interest in Bitcoins) and the hash rate (measuring the mining difficulty) have a positive effect on the price of Bitcoins. On the contrary, the value of Bitcoins is negatively affected by the exchange rate between the USD and the euro (which represents the general level of prices). A vector error-correction model is used to investigate the existence of long-term relationships between cointegrated variables. This kind of long-run analysis reveals that the Bitcoin price is positively associated with the number of Bitcoins in circulation (representing the total stock of money supply) and negatively associated with the Standard and Poor's 500 stock market index (which indicates the general state of the global economy).

Number of Pages in PDF File: 14

Keywords: Bitcoins, error correction, machine learning, sentiment analysis
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Evolution v 2.0 | NEW wallet, 50% POS Active
by
gmg
on 17/11/2014, 11:02:37 UTC
I have just returned from two day forum that took place in Riga. It was broadly about electronic money with some accents on crypto currencies.
It was actually very good with majority of audience and speakers being CEOs of mainstream companies like Visa and MasterCard Europe, yandex.money, Neteller,  (former) Head of Bitcoin Foundation, lawyers etc. It basically covered the full spectrum of the topic and has been a fantastic platform for networking.
However, I’m a little surprised that the technologies based on Bitcoin protocol haven’t been more endorsed by the mainstream players. It wasn’t a question of technological inability to do so, but rather lack of trust. It made me realised how small and insignificant bitcoin really is when comparing to other means of payments. Heads of financial services were very disapproving of this technology, which reminded me of Kodak which dismissed the idea of digital camera which later on proved to be the thing that killed their business.  
What one could really learn from this conference was that there is a wave of new laws designed to make bitcoin less barbaric. I’ve spoken with leaders in their respective fields and they are really keen on accepting bitcoin and altcoins but lack of regulation simply prevents them from doing it.
Another thing that one could learn is that even the hard-core sceptics could not dismiss that the strength of bitcoin is based on its sheer size of a hashing power and the utility that it serves.  It was great to talk to Jon Matonis and the head of Gigahash, this gave me great insight into things to come. At the same time showed how long road Diamond has to travel before becoming a real success.
The whole event left me with the sense of urgency that in order to move forward Diamond has to be bold in its actions, progressive and if necessary abandon some of the ideas it thought were right, for the sake of the greater good. In order to make any impact on anything we need to get to the top area of the market capitalisation list. We need to involve more people in the production of Diamond’s success, but we would not compromise on the general plan that has been set in stone a long time ago. All we need to do (this sounds like ‘just’ but hell it’s not) is to change our way of thinking, change our methods and create a community of creative people who will make all the difference. We are already heavily analysing possible outcomes  and to be honest with you, there will be changes and there is no way around it if we don’t want to stay just some small scale project on the peripheries of the altcoin scene – and the scene itself might not have much time left anyway.  

I'm glad to see the dev team moving forward to establishing DMD as a serious contender in the crypto-coin race. Let me throw a couple of random thoughts to this discussion:

1. Regulation. Any serious cryptocurrency will require both merchant adoption and citizen adoption. But, neither will happen on a mass scale without first regulating the scene. So, in theory, we should welcome regulation. But, in practice: who will represent the DMD community in regulation debates and by what authority? what is our (agreed) stance on regulation, e.g. things like BitLicense? To provide answers, DMD needs institutionalization (something like the Bitcoin Foundation) and more than a few people dedicated full-time to the project.

2. Infrastructure. To be seriously considered, we cannot rely on things like scarcity and a nice name (we already got those and they have taken DMD only so far). We need a robust underlying network. We need to be able to claim (to investors, adopters, regulators, etc.) that we can't even remember the last time the blockchain was forked (plus that we recovered immediately from that incident). We need to be able to show stable wallets, pools, clearing services, exchanges, etc. We also need to be able to claim (by numbers) that an external attack would be economically infeasible for someone to orchestrate and carry out. Again, we cannot show these attributes to any serious business, unless we first invest in infrastructure (hash rate) and development/maintenance effort.

So, in one word, DMD needs RESOURCES. Who will pay for them, who will provide them, and who will run them are the things we should be discussing.

For my part, I'm willing to contribute. Dev team, PM me, if interested.
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond DMD - new PoW/PoS coin | Super random blocks | Only 4.38 mil total
by
gmg
on 01/05/2014, 19:55:11 UTC
http://www.dmdpool.net/

3rd day in maintenance mode...



Guys, check out the discussion in the new thread!

It's not maintenance, DMD is undergoing a major re-release with new algorithm! All pools must be down.
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Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond Coin (DMD) Evolution v 2.0 | NEW wallet, coin mechanics, 50% POS
by
gmg
on 24/04/2014, 05:04:42 UTC
Guys, this is great news indeed!!! Keep up the good work and thank you for helping this coin realize its full potential.

We can all debate forever whether this or that change is good, if x% for coin foundation is high or low, and so on. But, the truth is that lots of people have backed this coin and have obviously put long hours of work into further developing it (I followed DMD since its original revival a few months ago and I'm too familiar with its state after the original developer had abandoned it). Some of you might not want to pay these people for bringing value to your holdings - that's ok, just move off to another coin that you consider more fair or having more potential. After all, this is an investment business.

I will continue supporting this great coin and the community behind it - again, thanks guys!
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 19/02/2014, 10:20:33 UTC
Diamond Community!

First of all I wanted to thank you all for enduring this difficult period without updates and lack of progress. It might have appeared as if the project was in doubt but it’s nothing more from the truth.

This relates to the discussion from the help section -> http://dmdcoin.net/forum/index.php/topic,20.msg382.html

As you all know developers are real people with real life and as was mentioned before sometimes there are situations that cause they cannot give 100% of their talent to the project.

Apart from Zuper who cannot perform at full capacity at the moment we now have Pamdetroit who is well known, well established and gifted developer who had been with Diamond Coin almost since the beginning and understands very well the code and inner workings of Proof of Stake. The more I learn about Proof of Stake the more excited I am about the possibilities it brings. Minting and PoS will be explained to you all soon as this is crucial and the most important part of Diamond Coin. Of course it might be a challenge but once you get it you will understand.

I just wanted to assure you that Diamond Coin is in active development and please just wait a tiny bit longer for official release of the new wallet.

Many of you will believe when you see it so just .. wait, see and believe. It’s coming and it’s coming fast.

So what's coming?

First of all the checkpoints will be updated and the stake will be turned on. Those of you who were holding your coins to mint will finally have the opportunity to do so. After accumulating long coin age, it will be a nice reward for you all.

We are looking at adding new features to the wallet but let’s make it a surprise Smiley 

What’s more the NVC code used in Diamond is broken and has to be fixed. We might be able to do it without forking but if that’s not possible we would do that in the next update which would be bigger that the current one.
 
I hope this will bring some sunshine to your crypto lives.

----

We will try to mirror some of the conversations/topics form the dedicated forum here on Bitcointalk and vice versa.

Please consider following us on dedicated forum http://dmdcoin.net/forum/.


zuper, popshot, PalmDetroit, and the rest of the dev team: I would just like to say a big thanks to all of you guys for putting your time and expertise toward strengthening Diamond. I am now 100% confident that DMD will establish itself as one of the most serious digital currencies - perhaps not tomorrow, but for those having the necessary patience, early investing in DMD will prove to be more than rewarding!

We all understand that technical development, wallet upgrades and network security should be your first priorities and they take time. So, please take the time you need. Although I understand that many people in this forum want to make a quick buck (and there's nothing wrong with it), there's also some of us who are interested in it for the long term and see the potential of a super-fast, super-fair, scarce digital coin with PoS!

While I cannot help with technical development, I'm more than willing to contribute to the community in other ways and help DMD grow stronger. When the next wallet release is made, we need to focus our attention on:
First, community building and awareness (faucet, giveaway, game, etc.)
Second, market making (trading, exchanges, liquidity)
Third, merchant buy-in (a "DMD Accepted Here" Logo would help)

I can help in all the above, just let me (and other volunteers that I'm sure are out there) know how you want us to be involved.

Keep up the good work!

Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 12/02/2014, 08:27:45 UTC

this is a big mistake taking dmd community off of this board. Many of the older coins made that same mistake DMD is a great coin, great name but needs new interest. I would bring it back on here asap.

One of the most undervalued coins right now. Good design, good dev , good name, fair release no scams. I like it.

I agree.

Although the new forum is excellent, and has much more traffic than I would have expected, this forum is still THE place to be if we want to build more support around DMD.

This coin can grow to be the most serious alt coin, given how serious, professional, and patient the community around it is. But, there can be no future if it remains known only to a bunch of people. A constant flow of posts in this thread is a good way of doing that.

Can't we somehow mirror interesting discussions/posts in the dedicated DMD forum into this one?

Post
Topic
Board Altcoin Discussion
Re: [POLL] Next cryptocurrency candidates for CoinEX
by
gmg
on 07/02/2014, 06:01:50 UTC
Diamond (DMD)!!!
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 12/01/2014, 16:34:48 UTC
can someone help, i think i've found a block and it got rejected? nothing in the wallet and no accepted shares just a lot of rejects. do i just have to wait for confirmation or am i missing something? cheers



I don't think you are doing anything wrong, just sometimes you get unlucky and get a rejected Block. What are your CGMiner settings and Diamond.conf?

0 accepted shares and >188,000 rejected ones???

There's something seriously wrong with your setup! If you're solo mining (which I doubt), the number after the A: in cgminer shows how many blocks you've found successfully and the number after the R: shows how many you found but were rejected (orphans, etc.). If you're pool mining, you're not connected correctly to the pool (check your settings).
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 11/01/2014, 08:36:43 UTC
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond DMD - new PoW/PoS coin | Super random blocks | Only 4.38 mil total
by
gmg
on 09/01/2014, 10:47:57 UTC
Could http://tompool.org please be added to the pool list?

Guys, this thread is not operational anymore! Direct your messages to https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=372952.0
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 09/01/2014, 10:46:31 UTC
i emailed coinpayments today requesting them to add DMD and they replied very quickly, great customer service!!

Hello Jim,

It will if there is enough public support, the best way to get it listed
right now is to participate in the public vote going on now at
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=397540.0

Thanks,
CoinPayments.net

so everyone who has not yet voted should get over there and vote for it to be added.

Just voted, but everyone should do so. Only 11 votes so far...

In other news, DMD is now listed in http://cryptmarketcap.com!
Post
Topic
Board Mining (Altcoins)
Re: Minar.cc - DANGEROUS?
by
gmg
on 08/01/2014, 17:57:49 UTC
Given how many people complain about minar.cc in the main DMD thread, the wonder is not that it dropped from 300+ workers to 50, but that there are still 50 workers there! Do people just don't care that they're not going to receive their coins ever?
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 05/01/2014, 15:03:00 UTC
Friends, be aware of scam here

http://dmd.minar.cc/

they locked my account with out any reason
yesterday and I can't login back. Any of my mined
cash that supposed to be transferred to cryptsy
by auto cash out didn't get there.



Obvious scam. First, we noticed that they are stealing the bonus blocks. Next, they go silent. Now, they simply lock people's accounts and stop paying altogether.

It's a good thing that there are now many pools to choose from so we don't need scammers in this community.

OP: I suggest you remove them from the list of pools, both here and in the DMD site.
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 04/01/2014, 15:35:21 UTC
can someone recommend a good and stable pool for DMD? I have been mining on http://dmd.minar.cc/ since this morning and my hashrate jumps from 250kh/s to 1200kh/s  (cgminer shows stable 1000kh/s with no HW) and I've got like 0.9DMD confirmed?

The most reliable one is dmdpool.net. Their web front end sucks (VERY slow) but their backend and support are great. Plus, they are behind the dev team resurrecting Diamond!
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 31/12/2013, 16:37:10 UTC

Searches for Diamond coin in 2013 (from Google Trends): http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Diamond%20coin&date=1%2F2013%2012m&cmpt=q

 Grin Grin Grin
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 31/12/2013, 16:29:40 UTC
if you do the script, i will pay for it, it will cost a few k but i will get it done

I also got a PM from another user, who says they can take care of the graphic design part. Thanks to both of you guys!

I'm off for the new year celebrations in a while, so I'll get back to both of you on Thursday to coordinate this!

2014 will be a Diamond year! Happy New Year to all!!!
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 31/12/2013, 16:27:12 UTC
Only 2 pool and I can't connect to either one!!!!

It's NOT my CMD. my line and cgminer work for many other coins..
So is there a problem of too much traffic or flaw or do you just not want people mining..YEP that will make very rare indeed...
I have one outstanding Diamond coin I have yet to receive after a request for a payout several days ago.
Pity as I agree this coin because if it's name alone will do well.

There are many pools now, not only two! Check the OP.

My advice is to stay away from minar.cc as they don't pay the bonus blocks (and they don't bother to reply to our complaints and make right what they owe!). dmdpool.net has a very slow website, but its stratum mining backend works perfectly.
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 31/12/2013, 13:00:23 UTC
Big thanks to both WTParker2 and Tripmode for your excellent investigation.

This has put my worries about the DMD possibly being hi-jacked to rest.
All your scenarios explains very well why I have received less DMDs than 'usual' over the last few days.
And it also reinstates my trust in the DMD.

May the DMD finally get that big price-jump it rightfully deserve being a truly rare entity..!
I guess when it eventually nears it's end in 50k+ units time it will indeed rise to much much higher value..

There is a good team behind Diamond - Zuper, PalmDetroit, Myself... Last time there was a forking issue we were on it within minutes.  If anyone is fucking around we would know about it! No one is able to cheat and generate superblocks, I can assture you that.

As for pool operators not paying bonus blocks, that has nothing to do with the coin - when researching a pool make sure you do your homework!

Based on the way MultiPool has responded and is paying people back for missed coins, it seems an honest mistake.  They run many pools and I am sure they didnt know that Diamond paid bonus blocks...We are glad to have Multipool as part of the Diamond community Smiley
i was going to make a video for DMD, but i have decided it might be better for me to just fork out some cash and pay for a professional company to do one, do you think this is a good idea? for a small fee we could run it as advertisement on youtube, i think that would work well, if you agree this is a good idea, what do you think the video should contain, i have the money but im a little bit blank when it comes to promoting a coin, i have made video's in the past for youtube, but not anything like this, and that's the reason i think it would be best to pay for it instead i think we should promote DMD as the next btc, like the DMD site says a commodity for the store of your wealth, i will need to write a basic script for them and any help would be much appreciated.

A video is a great idea. I think it should be a little bit sexy/flashy as opposed to just a dry "Alice pays Bob" video. It should point out the technical advantages of course, but also  shouldn't shy away from using the inherent marketability/appeal in owning "diamonds". I don't think it's really necessary to directly promote DMD as "the next BTC" - many people will already have that feeling without it being said, and it would probably if as few people thought of it as just another "copycoin" as possible. Just my opinion anyways.

The main DMD site's listed features:

- DMD is an ASIC-resistant scrypt coin.
- It combines proof-of-work and proof-of-stake, providing excellent resistance to 51% attacks.
- No pre-mining or instamining! 100% fair currency!
- It is super scarce: only 4.38 million DMD will be created in eight years (starting from launch in July 2013).
- Linear creation means early users do not have an unfair advantage (no block reward halving ever).
- Block time is one minute and each block contains 1 DMD.
- Every day, 10 random blocks contain 2 DMD (bonus blocks), 3 blocks contain 8 DMD (super blocks), and one block contains 30 DMD (super + block)!
- Difficulty re-targets at every block.

These are good, I'd also highlight:

- The environmental benefits of being scrypt (no ridiculous and wasteful ASIC arms race). Also, no Blood Diamonds!
- The speed/low transaction fees.
- How PoS and scarcity makes it a "saving" currency.
- Diamonds are a girls best friend?
- dmdpool.net has a great line on their site: "If BTC is gold, and LTC is silver, DMD is well, DIAMOND!"

Depends who you target the video to. If it's the crypto coin enthusiasts, then all the above should be highlighted to show the advantages of Diamond against other coins. If it's the general audience, then a very short (1-minute) video explaining what you can do with Diamond, like the original Bitcoin video (www.bitcoin.org), with animation, a clever script and no technical jargon is needed.

My thinking is that 2014 will see a huge influx of people hearing about and becoming interested in digital currency for the first time. Given the drawbacks and difficulties associated with Bitcoin, a few other serious candidates will emerge, based on acceptance by this large audience. I think it is THIS audience we should make a video for. This will help Diamond grow steadily, organically and without the pump-and-dump nonsense of most other alt coins. It is a long shot but, if successful, this will establish Diamond as the most serious digital currency out there. Judging from what I see by the new dev team and the discussions of the community in this forum, this is probably the most serious alt coin that currently exists (perhaps with PPC and WDC, which also seem to have serious communities around them).

If you can take over the artistic part of the video development, I can have a go at the script. PM me if interested. Let's help Diamond realise its true potential!
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 28/12/2013, 23:07:27 UTC
Post
Topic
Board Announcements (Altcoins)
Re: [ANN] Diamond (DMD) Takeover! Update v1.0.2 | NEW website, pool, block-explorer
by
gmg
on 28/12/2013, 09:03:31 UTC
Hello Everyone,

So far the Diamond Block Explorer (http://www.diamondblocks.info) has not received a single donation. Hosting unfortunately does not pay for itself. If anyone could send some coin over to help cover the costs that would be much appreciated.  Clicking advertising links on the explorer site is also helpful. Thanks in advance!

BTC: 1trip99Hd2cCfWftbPzdbcmBD35KeKyKw
DMD:dXHDYczgN3VuM9kdrnAFEC6iscoCtvqzRF
PHS: 9Z9FZzczh77vc6GkTW32nG4FLwBB6fyVKi

Hey Tripmode.
How about taking the "too many records to display" limit off the explorer. Or at least give a range of blocks to search for a particular ID.
I'm trying to figure out why most of the "random multi-coin" blocks are solved by one user.
I have to manually look through all the blocks and click on all the blocks that have more than a 2 coin payout to look for one ID.
That ID is dDqcXpWdhakptyocwV4JQ4WGyne24RXQMP

It most probably is one of the pools (pool operators, please confirm!).

I understand there is a script to predict whether the next block will be a bonus one (I remember there was a thread in this forum for that), but there's no way somebody would somehow surely find it - otherwise, they'd be just finding all blocks in all coins.