Why always assume the worst and lose gains because of it. You are saying two negative things needs to happen all at the same time.

First, the price of everything should fall, so we are in a bear market, AND then we are going to lose our job at the same time. Isn't that really weird that you want to lose possible gains for a back to back possible bad things?

I do not agree that it's being "prepared", it is being paranoid after a point. If you really want to, 10% of your portfolio could be USDT, and that way you could have some emergency fund.

It seems to me that each of us should be prepared for a variety of scenarios, even extreme scenarios and losing your job and the bitcoin price falling are not outrageous scenarios at all. 

If every investors apply this, I think people would no longer complain about high volatility and asking whether they should sell or not.

Many people are too obsessed when they have money which they don't use and they're also greedy, hence they're trying to maximize the profit they can make by investing as much as possible.

It might be possible for some people who can still able to perform under high pressure, but most people seems not able to do that.

When do we hit $120,000?  I'm guessing Tuesday evening (Wednesday morning).

Bitcoin is a lifetime opportunity. Those who are waiting or still have doubts today about whether to hold Bitcoin or not will realize that they have missed an opportunity of a lifetime. Not only to make money, but also to be at the forefront of a decentralized economic structure. The price of Bitcoin will increase or decrease in the market, which is the case with any investment. However, in weak hands, they will lose these things. If we take less, how safe is it really? If we look at small, medium and experienced investors, we will see that they have made small investments and got real value at the right time.

You can start investing at any stage. Even as a student. However, investing in Bitcoin will be easier and more bearable for you if you have a source of income. You can invest in Bitcoin by spending a small part of your income. It is better to adopt the DCA strategy. If you invest in Bitcoin, you do not need to have a fixed source of income, but you have to start investing. However, if you have a monthly income from any work, you can start investing a small amount every month through the DCA strategy. And it would be wise to adopt the DCA strategy in the first stage. Investing in Bitcoin does not have to be done from a source of income or from an alternative source. If you want, you can also start investing with your tiffin money while you are a student. I have a new investor near me, he is a student and is interested in investing. And he invests a small amount with risk. Later he made some profit and is now more interested in investing. He is now engaged in a part-time job along with his studies and continues to invest. It is not bad for those who are new to investing to invest alongside their source of income if they want to make a profit.

We definitely haven’t had any retail FOMO yet. I don’t think retail have arrived at all which is annoying because I have 25% of my stash to dump on them > $140,000

We keep getting hammered back down every time we break $109,000. This seems to be big resistance, when it finally gets broken we should teleport to $125,000.

Of course, each of us has to go by our own circumstances and attempt to tailor our bitcoin approach to our personal situation, which even includes our sense of bitcoin as an investment compared with other places that we might put value.

I likely was fairly convinced about bitcoin from the start, at least in terms of the boundaries of my tentative plan.

When I came to bitcoin, I had already been investing in various kinds of assets for more than 20 years, so I had built up various kinds of holdings, but mostly in index funds and some aspects in property and businesses, yet at the same time, I had frequently been interested in hedging some of my prior investment to make it gold-like (a hedge against the dollar), and one of my abilities to continue to contribute to a 401k plan was drying up, so I wanted to build some investments (potentially bitcoin) to supplement my having had already built the 401k (the 401k investment did not disappear, only my ability to continue to add to it had disappeared), so I was actually thinking that a 10-20 year investment timeline, I might be able to both build my investment into something like bitcoin and to potentially have the bitcoin investment to be equal to or greater than the 401k that I had been building for somewhere close to 20 years.

So my initial plan was to just follow a 6 month budget that I had created, so I divided the 6 months into 26 parts in order to get my weekly bitcoin investment budget that I followed it for about 5 months and since my timeline was running out (around May 2014), I extended my authorization with another 6 month budget.. so then by the time November/December 2014 came, I started to conclude that maybe I had invested about 10% of my total investment portfolio into bitcoin, and I was starting to feel that I had enough..

and so then thereafter I could just invest into other things.. so the BTC price when I started was around $1,100 in late 2013, and in late 2014, the BTC price was around $380.. and so largely at that time, I started to think that I can just play it by ear with any additional investment that I might make and not to worry so much that I largely had enough bitcoin (even though my cost per BTC was around $600 at that time, so my holdings were around 40% in the negative... and I thought things would just work itself out.

Largely after that late 2014 and into a large part of 2015, the BTC price dropped from upper $300s and lower $400s into the mid-to-lower $200s and even had a couple times going into the mid-to-upper $100s.. so I continued to buy a little of bitcoin mostly in the mid $200s, but I largely had some cashflow problems at that time (with one of my businesses), so I was ONLY periodically able to accumulate bitcoin during 2015, yet even with all of that, I calculated that I had reached an overaccumulation stage because in mid to late 2015, my investment into bitcoin started to get to be around 13.5% of my overall investment portfolio, so I started to conclude that I had overaccumulated by around 3.5%, since my initial goal was to just get the bitcoin to be around 10% of my overall investment portfolio... so from my perspective, my considering myself to have had gotten into overaccumuation status gave me some additional options... in order dealing with my BTC portfolio, so i worked out some systems to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down, and developed some other strategies, whiich really did not take me out of BTC accumulation until perhaps around 2017 by the time that maybe I just went into more of a maintenance status, which means that I did not sell too much BTC on the way up in 2017, and then I bought back down in 2018 from whatever I had sold in 2017.. and in the end, I had been developing my various BTC management strategies based on my own circumstances and my perceptions of my circumstances.

I will say that I never really got out of overaccumulation status since you can see from my various charts that I had assessed my BTC holdings to be 9.5% of my total investment portfolio in late 2014, and then it was 13.5% in late 2015, and then it was 80% in late 2017, and then it was 42% in late 2018, 89% in late 2021, and 63% in mid 2022 (the last time that I updated the chart).

I largely developed strategies that involved selling only small portions of my BTC holdings on the way up.. that might go up to 10% for every doubling, but in practice I did not tend to sell that much and I tended to buy much of if back, yet my theory had been that I wanted to be prepared if the bTC price went shooting up, so that I was never selling so much that I would regret it.. so I had an underlying BTC management approach that had a built in assumption that the BTC price could go shooting up, and then I did not want to be in a position of regretting to having to have sold too much too soon. 

So largely through they years I just allowed whatever value in bitcoin to compound upon itself.. which I figure through 2015 and now, my bitcoin holdings has largely gone through 8 or 9 doublings, which adds up to around 256x appreciation, even though I have been considering counting something like $1k to $3k as my average cost per BTC.. so then it becomes easier to calculate with $1k per BTC.

Some comfort develops with being "in profits," but also potentially ongoingly studying our own circumstances in order to figure out if we might want to adjust any of the strategies that we might have... even if we might move from being in accumulation stage to maintenance stage and then to sustainable withdrawal stage.. We likely would be informed by our ongoing studying of bitcoin, in the even that we are engaged in such... and if we are invested in bitcoin, there should be motivation to stay interested in

Over the years, I have seen quite a few of the instances of guys selling too much too soon and/or failing/refusing to regularly buy bitcoin since they keep thinking that the BTC price is going to dip, and then their mistakes end up affecting their whole approach to bitcoin accumulation in a negative way... such as their inability to get back into bitcoin and other seemingly self-inflicted psychological problems... but yeah, sure there can be a variety of mistakes that contribute towards guys managing their bitcoin accumulation badly.

I would think that folks probably have different arrangements in terms of coins they consider hot, medium and cold, and surely the practices could change over the years.

maybe in the very beginning a person keeps everything on an exchange, but he starts to learn about various ways to hold coins.. so the more ways that he holds coins, then if some of them are hot or medium, then they might be more vulnerable.. like how much might you hold on your phone for transactions, or maybe you don't hold much, but if you know that you are going to buy some expensive item, then you might carry the bitcoin on your phone for just that transaction.

you might have funds that you keep for transacting to refill your hot wallet or maybe transacting with friends and family (not on the street), so those might be medium storage, even though you still might need to be careful about UTXO management in tersm fo if some folks might see the balances in the wallets that you are using.. or maybe you learn about lightning network wallets and other kinds of wallets, so then you would still consider if those are hot, medium or cold, and surely the cold would have the most security, even though you might need to check in on them from time to time (once or twice a year or maybe more, depending on your situation), to make sure that you still have access to them.. Guys will make varying choices, and sometimes not want to get into too many details about what they do, yet I do sometimes post on coin management topics, and thin that the main idea is that there are likely levels.. and surely if you are buying $10 per week, it might take close to a year before you might feel a need to move those accumulated coins to a private wallet.

First:  You misquoted me since you did not quote the proper location from which you took my quote.. which you should have had linked this one.

Second:  I am not going into detail about psychology, yet if we are trying to determine the difference between discretionary funds and "the amount that you can afford to lose," then there surely seems to be a bit of subjectivity and psychology involved when any of us are constructing those kinds of limits for ourselves.  We likely will get ourselves into big trouble if we become too aggressive in one direction or another, so there frequently seems to be quite a bit of balancing that any of us ends up doing, and many times even folks with a lot of similar objective factors will end up balancing out their actions differently based on subjective considerations and/or comfort levels.

Of course the guys who have $100 or more of discretionary income every week, are going to have more flexibility in terms of how they can employ their money as compared with guys who might ONLY have $10 or less of discretionary income each week, and so sometimes the guys with lower levels of discretionary income might rightfully come to the conclusion that they need to stay more focused on bitcoin as compared with their peers who might have more discretionary income at their disposal.  And, they are not incorrect in coming to those kinds of conclusions about the likely need for them to be more focused and even more organized in their finances and focused in their thinking (psychology), yet there still can be ways to redirect focus and aggressiveness and/or perhaps figuring out ways to increase their discretionary income rather than potentially putting themselves into uncomfortable positions due to their seemingly maniacal focus on bitcoin accumulation that may well be ongoingly  bordering upon overdoing it. which causes it to seem more like gambling rather than investing.

You seem to be correct that sometimes we might believe that we are doing the right thing, and then we take actions that we believe are sufficiently correct in light of the information that we then know, but then later down the road, we come to realize that we over did it, and then we end up getting emotional about something that we could have had avoided (or at least minimized that kind of a later experienced emotional impact).

In the end, each of us chooses our levels, and surely most of us likely can see potential problematic aspects of aiming to invest (or even investing) 100% of our discretionary income into bitcoin, the exact level still does end up being a personal choice, and people can do whatever they like, even seemingly problematic things, but if they at least recognize the trade offs, then they might still end up coming to some kind of a balance that is similar to what other bitcoin investing aggressive guys are doing, even if they might just be labelling the categories of money differently... which sometimes might help if we are attempting to work with some hypotheticals so we might be able to specifically point out some of the trade offs if a guy might engage in one kind of conduct as compared with another kind of conduct, and even when we get into detailed hypotheticals, we still might not be able to capture various aspects of reality that involve ongoingly changing circumstances and even various kinds of factors that some guys might have to deal with as compared with other guys having different factors that might deal with their family life or their job or their personal health and/or other various kinds of income versus expense matters that they are dealing with.  And so surely there are some guys who have relatively straight forwards income versus expenses and other guys who have a lot of complications in their income versus expenses, so guys should be creating their systems to attempt to account for those kinds of matters and for sure a guy who has way more complicated (perhaps erratic?) income versus expenses, then he likely is going to be way better served to keep larger quantities of back up funds on hand as compared with guys who might have fairly straight-forward (perhaps simple and regular?) income and expenses.

You are largely correct that money that you can afford to lose could be up to 100% of your discretionary income, yet many times people do not think about their discretionary income like that, since an overwhelming majority of people (especially normal people) spend some portion of their discretionary income on things that they want, whether it is going out to a restaurant or perhaps buying name brand sneakers, or having a few drinks at a bar, or buying a bicycle for their niece, so there is some value in present consumption rather than future consumption that might not happen.  There are also psychological components, so even if you have a lot of faith in bitcoin, you likely still need to take care of various psychological needs, so if you spent 2 years building up your bitcoin holdings, and maybe you are not really in profits, and then all of a sudden, the BTC price drops, 30% and you are pretty upset, and then it drops another 50% from the 30%, which then causes you to be right around 50% down, and then it drops another 40%, so then at that time, you are a total of 70% down, and you are supposed to be buying more BTC the whole time, and maybe you keep buying BTC, yet at the same time, you are feeling like you are running out of cash.  Maybe you were investing around 20% of your income into bitcoin, but then once the BTC price started crashing, you started to put 25% to 30% of your income into bitcoin, so maybe you have invested the equivalent of 60% of your annual income into bitcoin.

You could even become psychologically weak from the whole situation, and some folks might have had been telling you not to invest so much in bitcoin and then now they are telling you "I told you so", and they are even telling your that you could have had 3x more bitcoin if you had not been so aggressive in buying bitcoin "at the top."  Maybe it even takes 1, 2 or even 3 years before the BTC price starts to seem like it might have stopped dropping and staying flat... but you are still in the negative with how much you put in as compared with how much your BTC holdings are worth.  If you can tolerate all that negative BTC price pressure, then sure maybe you have invested no more than you can afford to lose, but you are going to end up being financially and psychologically challenged if the BTC price moves against you... so you actually need to find some balance in which you are both financially and psychologically comfortable, which is also part of the reason that many people are not going to invest 100% of their discretionary income, and maybe they will find some way to be aggressive without over doing it, but maybe invest around 50% or 60% of their discretionary income into bitcoin.. so then they have the remainder of their discretionary income as a kinds of cushion.

Just a couple of days ago I mentioned a similar concept in another thread, which is much simpler but would cater to a slightly different use case: a cold wallet which you should be able to "forget about", even if quantum computing becomes a thing, but it should be possible to be accessed at any time.

With your idea it shares the concept to use a hashlock, but in this case as an additional requirement to the ECDSA key. This means to spend the coins you must know both the private key and the secret.

However, there's a flaw in this concept, and this flaw would (if I understand your setup corrently) also affect your solution: It doesn't at all protect against the "short-exposure" quantum computing attack, because the secret (the preimage) will be revealed at spending time. This means the QC attacker can still replace and double-spend the transaction if it's in the mempool. And against the "long-exposure" quantum computing attack, simply never spending from cold wallet addresses is enough.

This means, the hashlock does not lead to additional security, but instead to a potential vulnerability. I get that you mean that as an "emergency backup" and is meant for lost keys and not necessarily as a post-quantum mechanism, but you have to take this potential risk into account.

Hey Lucius.  I think that it is problematic for you to be suggesting that anyone failing to adopt bitcoin has any clues about what bitcoin is, even if they might have had known the word "bitcoin" for the past 16 years or longer.

We cannot impute knowledge on people, and surely they have all kinds of information about bitcoin and surely might not have had done any due diligence on bitcoin, even if they might financially be able to invest into bitcoin (such as if they were to have a discretionary income and have any clues about how to potentially get started investing into bitcoin.

Sure, there are people who already invest into various assets, so those folks would be more likely to not have excuses about their allocating some amount to bitcoin, yet still we hardly can know.. if they are able to afford $100 per week or $10 per week or some other amount that they wouldn't miss based on the number of lattes that they seem to drink from Starbucks, surely they should be able to afford to cut back on a few lattes every week, no?

Otherwise, I agree with your criticism of OOM's two reasons for not investing into bitcoin to likely be inadequate to cover the variety of reasons that normies are not able to identify that investing into bitcoin would be in their best interest as compared with not investing into bitcoin... to the extent that we might be able to substitute our judgement for theirs.


I will agree with you that certain number of the status quo rich including Saylor, Blackrock, various other similarly situated status quo rich individuals, institutions and governments are likely going to disadvantage normies through their changed tunes in regards to accumulating and hoarding bitcoin.  So, sure bitcoin prices are going to go up and normies are going to have to pay more to accumulate bitcoin.. yet it is difficult to affect what people, institutions and/or governments do in terms of their incentives to accumulate an hoard bitcoin.  Normies just have to figure it out as soon as they can so they can get started to join in rather than waiting longer before getting started.


The sooner that any of us get into bitcoin, the more chances that we are going to be able to front run the institutions, governments and status quo rich that are still figuring out bitcoin and who have not started to accumulate bitcoin and/or hoard it.

So sure.  Those of us who had gotten into bitcoin a whole cycle ago, or two cycles or even longer, then surely we would have had potentially been able to experience some avantages based on our  having had front run quite a few of the BIGGER players who are now only getting started in bitcoin.


That is too loosey goosey for my tastes, especially since there has been quite a bit of analysis of the historical existence of four year cycles.. and sure, each 4 year cycle has various uniquenesses in terms of its pattern, yet if we are just trying to mix things up for the sake of it, I doubt that is going to help us in terms of studying 1) where we are at, 2) how we got here and/or 3) where we might be going.


I tend to recommend ongoing investing rather than fucking around with lump sum investing (especially at the top of a cycle) without any follow through plan.

Guys should try to be smart about the way that they accumulate bitcoin rather than fucking around trying to trade or expecting to get rich quick.
 
I am not against getting started investing into bitcoin at the top of the cycle since for 1) we likely are not going to know whether we are at the top or not, 2) if a guy has no fucking bitcoin, it is better to get started rather than waiting, even if the price might be at the top of a wave. Waiting is not a good strategy, especially for newbies, and 3) there might be some other reasons, but I cannot think of any off the top of my head at the moment.


I don't like that way of investing in bitcoin or even thinking about bitcoin in those kinds of ways, since it seems that we have been experiencing 4 year cycles since about mid 2010 (when bitcoin first established a non-zero price) or even if we dont' start measuring until 2012-ish, there still seems to be pretty good evidence of 4 year cycles, at least historically.  Sure there are also some other ways of thinking about bitcoin and trying to model it, such as power law, yet even stock to flow is a bit of a variation of the powerlaw with the 4-year fractal .. and surely I also like to consider exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects (think trace mayer) and  metcalfe principle


Bitcoin can hardly be characterized as a dead cat, even if there may well be pieces of evidence that parallels such market trading dynamics that may well exist from time to time.

Also, the concept of dead cat bounce exists when the overall structure (and momentum) is indicating that we are going down or maybe in a bear market or some kind of a larger overall correction.. .. which surely it seems premature to be making those kinds of calls.. even though surely we never really can know for sure how down we might go during any consolidation or correction or if the correction might end up becoming a bear market rather than just a more straight-forward correction, which several times can end up happening, even in the best of bitcoin bull runs..


Sure.. of course, you are buying on the dips without necessarily knowing when the dip will stop, and so sure, nothing wrong with that.

I find it more problematic that you are ongoingly holding so much cash, and a few months ago, you had suggested that you had decently large amounts of cash waiting for more down that may or may not happen... which surely might work for your personal circumstances, yet we have a lot of folks who are participating in threads like this one and even other parts of the forum, and they are still in their first cycle or so of bitcoin accumulation, and so I doubt that it is helpful for newbies to be holding back a bunch of cash for dips that might not happen...even if arguably it might be appropriate for you to hold back so much cash for possible buying on dips that might not end up happening.

You may well be correct with any suggestion that you are making to proclaim that for MSTR any publicity is good publicity, yet at the same time, it seems quite interesting that very smart people are coming out against MSTR, yet they are likely going to end up getting their asses handed to them, to the extent that they don't adequately cover any shorting that they are doing.

Surely Chanos seems to proclaim that he is covered either way since he is betting both for bitcoin by longing it, but voting against MSTR by shorting it, so that he is covered wether the BTC price goes up or goes down.. and sure, maybe the size of his bets causes this to adequately work out and to be a good employment of his resources.


Sure.  Many of us who have studied bitcoin can recognize the follies of various less than 50% allocations to bitcoin, and surely many of us would not invest any more than 10% or 20% into shitcoins, yet the mere fact that it seems that more people are learning about bitcoin and becoming wiser in regards to bitcoin as the Alpha, there are still a seemingly overwhelming quantity to folks who are new to "crypto" who either believe various shitcoin talking points or they come to conclude that there are likely ways to outperform bitcoin in terms of their being able to smartly identify various "better" projects.   For sure the gamblers and the ill informed are still out there, and they are not necessarily dumb people, and there frequently are needs to learn from experience rather than being able to figure it out in advance.

I think that many long term investors would do well to continue to buy bitcoin for at least one or two cycles, yet of course the extent of their buying may well have to do with their budget and if they had been able to front load their investment. Many times normies are not able to front load their investment, so they tend to be better off to keep on accumulating, rather than merely holding... Even though holding is good in the context of meaning not to sell.. .. yet still there can be toughness in figuring out exactly what people should do, even if we likely can infer that there are an overwhelming majority of normies who are either no coiners or low coiners, so as a general principle, it seems that the no coiners and low coiners should be trying to figure out ways to make sure that they have some discretionary income so that they can ongoingly accumulate bitcoin.

For a project, I'm looking for a way to create addresses and private keys on the Linux command line for the following coins:
XMR
XRP
USDT
BNB
USDC
ADA

It turns out this is not as straight forward as it is for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Core has a convenient command line interface, which makes it easy to interact with the wallet. Since all of the coins listed above are used by exchanges and run on automated systems, it must be possible. So I'm looking for a way to create addresses and private keys (and in Monero's case also the view key), using trusted software.

The goal is to automate creating cold wallet QR-codes for different coins.

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Whether you invest or not, you need to have an emergency fund. You never know when you will have a financial crisis. You never know when you will fall into the middle of a financial disaster, so it is necessary to have an emergency fund to deal with this financial disaster.

DCA method is an investment method through which you can buy Bitcoin at any time at any price. DCA method never helps you to hold your holdings long-term. Holding it long-term depends entirely on you.

It is never right to invest with emergency funds. If you get sick and do not have money to invest, then you can stop investing for a few days, but it is not right to invest with emergency funds. Emergency funds are not always right to take money, when you do not have any money other than emergency funds, you can use emergency funds if you want.

I think that you are coming to the wrong conclusion Bluedrem, and that the better course of action is to get the fuck stared rather than studying the matter, and surely, one of the problems of poor people is that they fail/refuse to create and to maintain emergency funds, and so rich people have the advantage of having all kinds of resources and emergency funds to fall back upon if they fuck up, yet poor people get shaken out of their BTC investment when the fail/refuse to make sure that they are more organized than the rich person in order to protect themselves. 

You do not need to study the bitcoin matter and/or the cashflow management matter in order to get started investing into bitcoin sooner rather than later (as long as you have a discretionary income) and stop procrastinating whether you are a rich person, poor person or some other category of person who happens to not have enough BTC yet has a discretionary income, which is about 99% of the world's population does not have enough or any bitcoin, currently.