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Showing 20 of 25 results by institutionaltrader
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Re: For the bulls
by
institutionaltrader
on 06/10/2014, 09:59:08 UTC
I have a question for the bulls... I am not falling, or any other "troll" account. But i have a few points for the bulls and i was wondering if you could counter them...

Points
- The winklevoss etf will actually be shot down
- just kidding im not doing that



Serious points
- Miners dumping thousands of BTC a day
- A lot of people say, that the only reason BTC hit 1k+ was because of the willy bot. Not to mention there was actually proof of the willy bot on mt gox.
prior to the willy bot, btc wasnt over 250. What if right now, the dust is settling and BTC is returning to what it should naturally be. Which means right now, BTC is currently overpriced
- Merchants convert BTC to USD instantly

And i think it is funny. I was like everyone on this forum a few months ago. I would look at a fallllling thread and laugh, not only at the grammatical errors, but also his crazy predictions. However, he and all the other "trolls" here, have been correct. Maybe they didnt get the time frames right, but they sure did get the prices right. and they can come back, and warn us some more, but we probably wont listen. But the price keeps falllling...

-Miners gotta make money, gotta pay bills.. Nothing we ca do about that.
-btc hit $1000 due to mass panic buying and media coverage.
-Not all, Overstock keeps some for the long term.


As a BTC bull, I'd like to remind you that this is the last time you're gonna see this type of swings. The early adopters/market manipulators have one last go at it. Once the ETF launches we wont be talking about little money like we are today. Today its easy to move the market around with a few million bucks. Think about how hard it going to be be though once that ETF hits. Now were talking aboutevery financial market around the world having a vehicle to invest in bitcoin. One that's safe, trusted and regulated. I'm talking about trillion dollar markets being able to cash out a bit and hedge in btc.


Bitcoin to the moon fellas.....

The ETF won't do anything to the underlying asset. If they are buying their BTC via exchanges, you have exactly the same risks than buying BTC directly and no one will help you if anything goes wrong.

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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
institutionaltrader
on 29/09/2014, 13:38:59 UTC
Can someone explain me why the hashrate going up is good for the price?

I mean, I know economics. I know that the supply is a function of price and cost. So if cost goes up for miners, then the supply will shrink. But why the hashrate should be consider as proxy of cost?

It's is quite possible that the cost for most of the miners is actually going down while the hashrate and difficulty are increasing. If there is a consolidation of the mining market, big mining farms are making economy of scales, so their margins increase while the hashrate increase too, so they could very well selling a greater proportion of their mined coins to enjoy their high margin.

All of that to say that I am not convince that the hashrate is a good proxy for evaluating the cost of mining BTC, therefore not necessary a good indicator for the future price of BTC.

I agree with you. There have been lengthy arguments about "hashrate follows price" or "price follows hashrate" for years now. I'm in the former camp.


I was never involved in that argument about hash rate follows price / price follows hash rate, so ill chip in here Cheesy I think both happens but cyclically.

As price rises so does hashrate, however hash rate lags price. As the price climbs people start to see mining gear as a better investment then buying BTC direct, so less money goes into the market and more goes into mining. This causes a cyclical top. When price tops out you still have a buttload of hash rate that is on order, waiting to be deployed, or in the process of coming online. As price drops, this puts pressure on miners to sell, and as the hash rate increases  so does selling pressure, at which point price starts to lag hash rate. As mining becomes less profitable the tide changes, all the money going into mining gear shifts back to buying cheap coin. Which drives up demand, only this time there is even more dollars chasing that limited supply (based on the principal that adoption is constantly increasing). As the prise starts to rise, miners are able to recoup their capital investment in dollar terms and start to think that perhaps holding is a better option, as the price is rising. This cuts supply and drives the price higher, and thus the cycle repeats.

This cycle exists because miners are (imho wrongly) still measuring things in dollars. When miners start looking in terms of BTC only thats when this cycle will start to break down. That's where your piece of pie comes in, and thats what people should really be looking at long term. (miners or investors). If BTC becomes money, what percentage of it do you own.

When you compare that to the present situation with dollars, pounds or whatever your local currency, you see how little you need just to 'hedge' your position. It astounds me that people don't at least buy that *just in case* especially given how little that actually costs right now.

I guess thats why banks are so rich though eh Smiley

The problem is that it will not happen in the near future.

Real life is in dollars. You have to buy hardware parts in dollars to build mining rig. You pay electricity in dollars. So unfortunately for all of us, it is gonna crash hard...

says the noob jumping to conclusions.

It is a sign of tulipomania when people don't want to ear any bearish prediction (or put anyone that disagree with them on ignore list).

Listen to all opinions. All of them make a market not only the one in your head.

Guys, stay smart and factual.
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Re: rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)
by
institutionaltrader
on 29/09/2014, 12:18:39 UTC
Can someone explain me why the hashrate going up is good for the price?

I mean, I know economics. I know that the supply is a function of price and cost. So if cost goes up for miners, then the supply will shrink. But why the hashrate should be consider as proxy of cost?

It's is quite possible that the cost for most of the miners is actually going down while the hashrate and difficulty are increasing. If there is a consolidation of the mining market, big mining farms are making economy of scales, so their margins increase while the hashrate increase too, so they could very well selling a greater proportion of their mined coins to enjoy their high margin.

All of that to say that I am not convince that the hashrate is a good proxy for evaluating the cost of mining BTC, therefore not necessary a good indicator for the future price of BTC.

I agree with you. There have been lengthy arguments about "hashrate follows price" or "price follows hashrate" for years now. I'm in the former camp.


I was never involved in that argument about hash rate follows price / price follows hash rate, so ill chip in here Cheesy I think both happens but cyclically.

As price rises so does hashrate, however hash rate lags price. As the price climbs people start to see mining gear as a better investment then buying BTC direct, so less money goes into the market and more goes into mining. This causes a cyclical top. When price tops out you still have a buttload of hash rate that is on order, waiting to be deployed, or in the process of coming online. As price drops, this puts pressure on miners to sell, and as the hash rate increases  so does selling pressure, at which point price starts to lag hash rate. As mining becomes less profitable the tide changes, all the money going into mining gear shifts back to buying cheap coin. Which drives up demand, only this time there is even more dollars chasing that limited supply (based on the principal that adoption is constantly increasing). As the prise starts to rise, miners are able to recoup their capital investment in dollar terms and start to think that perhaps holding is a better option, as the price is rising. This cuts supply and drives the price higher, and thus the cycle repeats.

This cycle exists because miners are (imho wrongly) still measuring things in dollars. When miners start looking in terms of BTC only thats when this cycle will start to break down. That's where your piece of pie comes in, and thats what people should really be looking at long term. (miners or investors). If BTC becomes money, what percentage of it do you own.

When you compare that to the present situation with dollars, pounds or whatever your local currency, you see how little you need just to 'hedge' your position. It astounds me that people don't at least buy that *just in case* especially given how little that actually costs right now.

I guess thats why banks are so rich though eh Smiley

The problem is that it will not happen in the near future.

Real life is in dollars. You have to buy hardware parts in dollars to build mining rig. You pay electricity in dollars. So unfortunately for all of us, it is gonna crash hard...
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Re: Anyone else hedging?
by
institutionaltrader
on 22/09/2014, 08:44:42 UTC
Yes I'm hedging by going full USD.

Maybe going back to BC when it is $250
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Re: What are you doing right now?
by
institutionaltrader
on 19/09/2014, 14:02:02 UTC
Selling all my coins to other "smart" people without trying to crash the market more.

Falling knives aren't worth the risk even if they’re made of gold (in our case of air).
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Re: Honeymoon savings... hold or sell?
by
institutionaltrader
on 19/09/2014, 13:31:18 UTC
Sell or no honeymoon anymore! (aka divorce)
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Re: Will Bitcoin ever be over 600 again in the next 2 years?
by
institutionaltrader
on 19/09/2014, 13:16:34 UTC
It can be now. I'm selling you a BC for $600 if you want.
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Re: Why bitcoin price is falling ?
by
institutionaltrader
on 19/09/2014, 13:01:53 UTC
Insiders know something you don't.

Small tip: it has to do with the bitcoin protocol.
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Re: If we break 350 we go right to double digits!
by
institutionaltrader
on 19/09/2014, 12:40:54 UTC
this is bad!!!
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Re: Bitcoin is stabilizing?
by
institutionaltrader
on 12/09/2014, 13:12:26 UTC
Because it is already priced in the market due to insider trading.

Also the price will go down a lot instead due to paypal users selling BC.
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Re: Here we are 24 hours after the Braintree/PayPal news....
by
institutionaltrader
on 10/09/2014, 09:09:31 UTC
sure, willy was the sole reason of the price to move

Don't mention that gox was just ten percent of the global exchange volume during that time. Or that 'willy bot' has never been proven - just 'exposed' on a blog and released at a sensitive time to impact the price as much as possible!

Nothing to do with gox being 10 percent. The problem is that most exchanges had fake volume and fake price indexed to gox either willingly (exchange fraud) or via arbitrage.

Now they switched to other exchanges or average of exchanges prices.
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Re: Bitcoin is stabilizing?
by
institutionaltrader
on 10/09/2014, 08:55:35 UTC
No, I don't think so. Look at the volatility and daily range it is crazy. This is worse than a pennystock pump and dump.
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Board Lending
Re: Any one from this board tried earning BTC interest?
by
institutionaltrader
on 10/09/2014, 08:48:20 UTC
Yes I tried and lost a lot of money. This is a scam like a lot of services in the BC industry. This is going to crash hard unfortunately...
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Re: Bitcoin starting to look more and more like TULIP BULBS of 1600s
by
institutionaltrader
on 09/09/2014, 17:30:25 UTC
I agree there are a lot of similarities. It may crash hard like tulips one day due to the fact that BC is very difficult to secure for normal humans.
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Re: If fallling didn't exist, what would the price be right now?
by
institutionaltrader
on 09/09/2014, 14:35:40 UTC
I think faalllling is a good thing for the community.

He adds logic and brain into a world with too much optimism aka bubble or ponzi scheme.

You can't have a market without opinions.
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Re: Pool: If PayPal adopts Bitcoin, what would the price be?
by
institutionaltrader
on 09/09/2014, 14:28:51 UTC
It will crash hard because people will only use the new integration to dump all of their BC holdings fast.

The current market and exist strategy is very illiquid so this is good news for people wanting to go out and buy real things instead of drugs.
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Re: Price of mining the cheapest bitcoin
by
institutionaltrader
on 08/09/2014, 14:33:23 UTC
What if you get free electricity and pay nothing for it? There are some places where stealing power is no big deal. Like where I live.

There is always a way to make money through theft.  This is not a Bitcoin phenomenon.

Yes but this can only last for so long. Basic economic principles must apply for the technology to prosper otherwise it crashes towards the real underlying value; in that case minus zero.
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Re: Should I worry?
by
institutionaltrader
on 08/09/2014, 14:27:18 UTC
If you are a long term Holder than you shouldn't worry.

Of course you should worry. If the technology doesn't make it (hacked, bugs, product life-cycle) or is replaced by one officially regulated then the long term value is 0.
If it's a naturally occurring ponzi scheme like some theories suggest then same result.

Sometimes it is better to get your money and laugh all the way to the bank watching others burn. Take action.
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Re: Why don't bull scammers put buy walls at $460?
by
institutionaltrader
on 08/09/2014, 11:36:04 UTC
Seems huge speculators are stealthily selling their BC. Maybe they see something worse than we see. I hope not.
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Re: URGENT, Bitcoin is on the verge of collapse !!!
by
institutionaltrader
on 08/09/2014, 11:27:40 UTC
The problem is that small miners are the ones who make BC run in the long term. If they all leave the business, the protocol will take an hit in performance and stability.
Markets move pretty fast in either direction but business creation is harder, takes more time.

Without them, we are left with gamblers and speculators maintaining the network. NOT GOOD!