Bloody hedgies playing games again. They ripped it up to $60k. Then ripped it down to $30k. Now ripped it back up to $50k. And once we get get close to $55k, they'll rip it back down again to $30k and maybe even below as people lose confidence. And once everything thinks its over, they'll rip it back up again. Rinse and repeat and profit. Fucking hedgies.

The current pump is already a bit underwelming and some moonboys already calling for a triple peak blowofftop this cycle. This is quite hilarious

Mate you gotta look at the psychology plus the history, not just the history.

Back in 2013 there was a double blowofftop. So in 2016/2017 people were expecting a double blowofftop. Thats why it kept going up and up and up. What happened in the end? Just one big massive long blowofftop, not two. Followed by a very long bear market.

Now I'm 2021, people are looking back and are expecting a massive blowofftop followed by a bear market. You gotta think two steps ahead mate.

Stock to flow is almost guaranteed to be invalidated. Everyone is looking at it and thats why it won't happen. We won't go past $100k because most people are expecting it to.

Even if only a few people knew about stock to flow, the model itself is flawed. Stock to flow in the tails is not accurate. A Charizard Pokemon card has a fixed supply and a stock to flow of infinite, so stock to flow says the price is infinite. My stained toilet paper also has a fixed supply so stock to flow is infinite. But unfortunately no one would buy it so it's value is $0.

It's demand that is more important in determining price. Stock to flown does not take into account demand at all

The market is designed to catch people off guard and is designed to cause the greatest losses to the greatest amount of people. Generally what most people expect to happen doesnt happen for this very reason. The most likely outcome are the unlikely outcomes in my opinion: either rounded top at $75k in early 2022 or double top at $65k in late 2021. Then go sidewards in $30k-$45k for extended period of time. 

It actually looks like a mini version of March to April of 2021. Which is a bit scary because there was a massive dump afterwards. Is it possible same might happen again?

They just need to communicate it a bit better than me. Say things like "Hey inflation is bad. Housing and food is more and more expense. We need better currency like bitcoin".

Most americans already know about bitcoin these days after elon musk and michael saylor so are more friendly. Around 1 in 3 americans have owned some bitcoin at some point. Even those that didn't own already are curious.

I think the fact that everyone is expecting a blowoff top is precisely why it won't happen. Everyone seems to have the idea that the cycle HAS to end with a blowoff top because the last 3 times, it did.

If you were a hedge fund and your goal was to maximise risk-adjusted profitability, what would you do, knowing this that everyone is expecting a blowoff top at say $130k+ ? Would you sell when everyone else is selling? Or would you make sure you've left enough space to dump all your bags on the normies. Keep in mind hedge funds, unlike normies, can't go in and out of positions as fast as us normies, because they have large sums of money. They would need to start off loading early. Which will lead to rounded top, as normies buy them guys but quickly gas out.

What would happen if someone, lets say Bob. Goes out and says "We got a problem. Previous governments have been doing too much QE. Inflation is going wild. We will now adopt Bitcoin as legal tender."

Would Bob get elected? Or would majority of people not like Bob?

Short term profits is exactly what institutions do. They don't buy and hold. If they bought at $20k which is what most institutions did early in the year, then $75k is around 4x which aligns with my target.

Will we get a parabolic blowoff top or a rounded top or top already in?

I think we will get an underwelming rounded top at around 70k.

Those slimey institutional types are going to tap the bloody brakes and will try to front run exit us normies.

You think he was on our side when he taught blockchain at MIT? It was probably his plan all along. He knew about blockchain and bitcoin but he definitely was never on our side. Him teaching at mit was just a show to make the general masses think that he knows what he's doing. Which he does. He clearly knows he's siding with the banks to allow them to hamper bitcoin and profit at the same time.

Gary works for his leaders in government. I just can't stand him and his slimey-ness. Talking trash like his "technology neutral" and all. He knows bitcoin is innovative. He wants his buddies to not get discrupted. He wants them to continue profitting. Gary is probably on his laptop trading xrp as we speak. Bloody slime ball.   

I think Gary is a slimey undercover banker. He has good knowledge about Bitcoin, but that's what makes him a good undercover SEC head. He is just protecting his Goldman Sachs buddies.

When he announced he was more open to the idea of futures-backed bitcoin etf's, he blew his cover.

What is the point of futures backed etfs? Other than to create more volatility and allow his banker buddies to manipulate prices to their benefit (just like what they did to silver).

Is Gary Gensler good for bitcoin or is he an undercover slimey banker?

I've heard some people mention the possibility of bitcoin eating away at negative yielding debt.

What does it mean exactly? Isn't bitcoin an asset? How can bitcoin eat away at the debt?

Can Lightning be used to scale Ethereum and if so, why the move to PoS and sharding instead?

I'm a newbie hoping to purchase BTC regularly (every month) and holding. What is the best exchange with best fees/withdrawl rates?

The two that look appealing to me are FTX and Kraken Pro.

FTX has free AUD deposit, 0.02% trading fee and free BTC withdrawal.
Kraken has free AUD deposit, 0.16% trading fee and 0.00015 BTC (around $10) withdrawal fee.
Binance has free AUD deposit, 0.1% trading fee and 0.00057 BTC (around $40) withdrawal fee.

It seems like FTX is slightly better in all aspects. However, there are no trading pairs with AUD on FTX (according to the website). However this contradicts the link below which says AUD trading pair was introduced in December 2020.

Would we need to convert to USD within the app/exchange first?

https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360054369972-New-BTC-Markets-on-FTX-BTC-AUD-and-BTC-EUR