I used to keep my merits for non-legendaries.

Now only rarely do I find a merit worthy post by non-legends; let alone beginners. What has happened to the WO? Do I sound like a fading boomer if I suspect only the "old guard" is keeping this place interesting?

suppose that 30% on electricity on btc miners will take place ... wouldn't it contribute to bitcoin scarcity due to some miners stop mining...

 add this to the recent news of Nuclear plant mining bitcoins in PA and it looks like someone is trying hard to eliminate competitors lol

Add a possible 30% tax on electricity used for cryptomining..

Biden plans to increase taxes to collect a whopping $5.5 trillion over the next decade.

Well the problem is the printer was here all of 2022.

They were printing money for all Long Term Care insurance companies.
They were printing money for all social security benefits.
They were printing money for all I savings bond holders.
They were printing money for all TSP holding the G-Fund.


Do the math for the above and the money already dished out to the people above is remarkably close to 1.7 trillion dollars.

But the mass media did not talk much about the above.

Oh in 2023 all of the above are still on schedule for more more more.


1) Now as an I bond holder - nice
2) as an 401Tsp g fund holder - nice
3) as a social security beneficiary starting in 2023- nice
4) as the caretaker of the owner of a Long term care policy - nice
5) as the husband to a person that has a federal pension getting 8% raise - nice

as a BTC miner - not nice
as a BTC holder - not nice
as a guy trying to be like JJG Just DCA - neutral to nice.


All of the above illustrates why hedging is okay to do.


Only USA people can do the I-Bonds
So do some 1 a month for 100
and DCA at least 100 a month for your BTC

or just complain that the telegraphed moves by the fed suck even when they are easy to hedge.

Am I fortunate that I get a benefit from all 5 listed not really.

1)It means I live in the USA - lucky I guess not sure

2)It means my wife's 401 tsp never got big stock gains last 10 years.
3)It means I am older (66 in 30 days)
4)It means my bro-in-law is really sick (dementia)
5)It means my wife is getting older 67 in 3 months

As for 2-5 I rather be 35 years old and working hard as long as I was with my wife.


Oh to all of W.O

If someone wants to listen to macro story:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EI_M4o2mrs8

F. Zulauf is amazing, I wish i listened more to him at the end of last year.
He used to be Barron's round table member for decades.
However, they did not discuss bitcoin, just stonks and bonds.

From their discussion: Fed will probably pivot in Q2 and it will be risk-on in the second half of 2023, but before that-recession and earnings decline.
I figure, end of Q1-early Q2 might be a perfect time to buy pretty much everything, including bitcoin.
However, they predict that this would be just a cyclical rally with more interest rates jump in 2024 into 2025.

More and more people are starting to publicly call for an end to these rate increases. Unfortunately for all of us, the Fed is responsive to data, they are absolutely horrible at predicting things. So bad in fact it’s hard to believe it isn’t done on purpose so they can manipulate investments and grow their own balance sheet. When will they decide they’ve inflicted enough pain? Who knows. I just know they’d stop now if they cared about the people on main st.

Well I am not the dullest tool in the shed or the sharpest.

As you can see there is a website devoted to clocking the possibilities of going bankrupt for long term care companies.

I never would have thought to apply it to clock fed rates.

I found it last year when my brother in law got sick.

I used it because I was checking on genworth to figure out if my brother-in-law would be able to keep collecting his long term care insurance.

As I kept checking it the bankruptcy dropped from 45% to 32% and the company became more solvent. In time with the fed rate increases.

Did my research an realized close to three trillion in value is held by long term care companies in usa.

In the last year the industry has recovered 15% in value.  about 450 billion in value gained.

I am sure others check that website to figure out the health of insurance companies like genworth.

The are smart and skilled at guessing the when companies become safer or safe from going bankrupt.

From what I can see these companies could use till June and keep loading up better bonds.

I lean to The June date not the April date for the fed to pivot.

So I believe rally could start in April-May time frame as a response to guessing pivot starts in June.

Lots of outside factors can make all of that wrong.
ie Ukraine 🇺🇦 vs Russia 🇷🇺 has a sudden turn.

Ukraine wins Putin dies Russia gives all of Ukraine back = monster rally.
Ukraine loses Putin becomes more powerful = big ass slump
Ukraine and Russia drags on for a few more years sideways sideways sideways.

As I have said in multiple posts the fed has found a way to bail out all the USA long term care polices.

How simple raise rates.

If you realize just how much the long term care companies were in the hook back in Jan 2022

and how much they recovered in one year it is pretty obvious that they will continue to boost bond yields which are pretty much the only thing long time care policies invest in.

my brother in law has dementia. he has a policy with genworth a major long term care policy company.

they were rated to have a 45% shot of going bankrupt december 2021
they are now rate to have a 32% shot of going bankrupt december 2022.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5430871.msg61478856#msg61478856


read this post and you can see how poorly genworth did with low bond interest the 2019 to 2021 time frame

read how they did 2021 to 2022 with high bond rates.

hint they went from 99 billion to 114 billion

there are 14 companies like them.

all were next to dead december 2021.

all are coming back due to the feds actions in 2022.

I see at least two more hikes to continue to help the ltc industry.

maybe four hikes.

If you check the top long term care company ratings and compare dec 2021 to 2022 you can see this was a huge bailout for them.

btw.  these rates are a huge bailout for federal workers starting jan 2023 and social security payouts.

they will likely not stop.

keep checking on genworth at this website

https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/GNW/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy

I suspect that rates will rise and improve their bottomline for as much as June 2023 .

Keep in mind there are about 14 companies that are like genworth and everyone of them is getting this “help”

so maybe april but likely june  we flip.

There are a few questions:
1. Why is the tweeter for the project not active?
2. Why was the release of the NFT collection stopped?
3. Why is there no new exchange to buy a coin, not a token?
4. Why didn't they change the logo to a new one for CMC?

All the Twitter content moderation staff on $500K annually now working for 50 cents at McDonalds no doubt.

Hi everyone. I'd like to get your take on this since I'm not really sure what am I missing here.

Although one would anticipate that the price of ETH should increase given that the supply has decreased by over 5,500 since last Saturday, for some reason, ETH prices haven't exactly seen the coresponding price boost despite lowered supply.

Why hasn't this had a beneficial effect on the price of ETH?

Original source:

https://twitter.com/thetokenist/status/1580532690360872961

https://tokenist.com/ethereum-turns-deflationary-but-drops-7-as-market-stays-uncertain/

I'm tired of these people making others curious and anxious on social media to earn likes, retweets and popularity. If Vitalik knows something is going to happen, why can't he be more clear regards what it's going to happen? If the main purpose of his tweet is to enlight the audience, the information must be shared on its totality, not partially or vaguely.

I learned to consider this kind of tweet FUD, doesn't matter the subject in question.