Many people are speculating that pre-COVID global economic levels won't return until 2023. I'm also inclined to believe that, news came out today that the EU is considering banning travel from the USA due to their inability to manage the virus.
I don't see the US or any other major country slipping back into lockdowns, not anytime soon at least. If more lockdowns are to come it won't be until the fall months start and COVID-19 cases start spiking again as many medical professionals predict will happen. Even then, take the US for example which is already experiencing record high spikes, there is no intention to go back into lockdown, the only other possibility would be a democratic governor locking down the state to economically protest Trump, but that seems unlikely as they would also be shooting themselves in the foot economically. I seriously don't think the economy could support another lockdown. I think the goal, especially in the US, is to just defund testing centers to hide the real numbers and try sweeping it all under the rug.
The pandemic will most certainly persist until the end of the year if not longer depending on where in the world you are.
I personally think we're living through a paradigm switch, China already has been working for decades to build new economic infrastructure to establish what the CCP calls "a post-American world", there's also been a lot of tension lately between China and India, Syria is still a flashpoint, Iran and North Korea remain nuclear threats, and when you toss a pandemic into the mix, things don't look good. Usually, when the world has been faced with a pandemic coupled with geopolitical, and economic tensions it has resulted in a paradigm shift, automation usually speeds things up too. Maybe I'm pessimistic, but I just don't see a way in which things ever go back to the way things were before COVID-19, and honestly, I think there's a growing number of people who don't want it to.