rhPGfqBGrZBa5urgZDASuQVw4kvhuqvVL5

The simple answer is because all too often Bitcoin ventures are set up an run by one person, who lacks all the necessary skills.  In some cases that one person is a kid, too.

Will it require liquid hydrogen to cool the superconducting magnets, or will it use new high Tc superconductors and liquid nitrogen?  It will use superconducting magnets, right?  Otherwise how is it going to suspect the spinning torus?  Also, what will the fusion reactor run on?  I'm assuming it won't just run on garbage like the one in Back to the Future - that's clearly not possible in real life - so will it need a special fuel?  We need answers to these questions now, otherwise how are we to make estimates of mining profitability?

I have no idea or particular opinion as to who is behind either attempt.  I had assumed the same entity was probably behind both attempts, but yes, today's action could certainly be a copycat.


I doubt we'll ever know who was selling.

Yeah, I think DeathAndTaxes has it right.

Certainly the collapse of BTCST has probably reduced the influx of fiat, but I think by far the largest chunk of that would be from existing bitcoiners; I'm not expecting large outflows, even if Pirate does make significant payouts (which I don't expect).

I see BTC being stable at $10-$11, short term. I don't think we're going to see a continuation of the bubble-licious behaviour we had immediately prior to the correction two weeks ago; at least not for a little while.

I'm somewhat skeptical of this assumption that people will cash out their payouts (if they materialise - which I somewhat doubt).  All these people who were so keen to invest in BTCST will suddenly give up on BTC altogether and cash out to fiat?  That's a big assumption

I think it's clear that someone is trying to crash the market, by selling heavily at the beginning of the weekend, when they know liquidity will be limited by the inability to make fiat transfers into the exchanges.  Exactly the same thing happened two weeks ago, and I'm guessing it's not unrelated.

How low will it go?  I'm guessing this weekends attempt to crash the market will be far less successful than the previous, which triggered an overdue correction in an overbought market.  This time round I imagine there are quite a few players who anticipated the possibility and more have exchange funds ready and waiting to buy back in when they sense a bottom.  I expect a bounce.

My personal belief is that it will bounce back to $10-$11 and then trade sideways for a while.  But I'm not a trader (of anything) not least because I know full well that I'm no good at trading.  I mainly only do buy-and-hold.  So I'm probably not the best person to listen to on this.

That actually makes a lot of sense.  You have to get burnt once or twice, I think, before you are really capable of being realistic about investments.  I remember getting all exciting by the tech bubble, and losing money when it burst.  Fortunately not more than I could afford to lose, but until you've got caught up in the hype at least once; until you've let yourself believe all the very plausible-sounding reasons why "this time it's different", it's very difficult to really appreciate how utterly wrong the majority can be.  I'd frame it not so much in terms of greed but rather in terms of wishfull thinking. It's an important lesson to learn, and not an easy one, nor a pleasant one.

Lets consider a much simpler investment: simply holding a bunch of bitcoins in your wallet.  I periodically think long and hard about whether it's sensible to hold coins long term.  Whether it's realisitic to be bullish about the value of BTC or just wishful thinking on my part.  I'd do that even if BTC was appreciating and everyone was confident it was a good investment.  In fact, I'd do it especially if BTC was appreciating and everyone was confident it was a good investment.


BFL, on the other hand, is a completely different kettle of fish.  Seems like a typical start-up to me.  I think a lot of people here are so used to mainstream present day tech companies and they either weren't around or don't remember the days when pretty much all tech was built by companies stuggling to complete and ship cutting edge products on time.  The Sinclair ZX80, the BBC Microcomputer - the even earlier single board computers.  All suffered from slipping dates, production problems, etc.

Yes, dealing with a start-up like BFL involves making some calculated risks, particularly if you choose to preorder a product knowing that it's not yet in production and therefore the final specs aren't yet known.  It's the nature of start-ups that some businesses fail; and it's even more the nature of designing technology products that things don't always go according to plan, and often (some might say almost always) takes longer than expected.  I happen to think these risks are acceptable, and I took them (with money I can afford to lose) and preordered an ASIC Single.  For me, though, it's just a bit of fun; whether investing in mining equipment (or any kind) is sensible thing to do as a serious investment, I'm far from sure.  The days of easy money from mining are gone, I think

If someone figures out how to transmute other (cheaper) elements into gold, then it certainly could :-)

So far I think:

1. Bitcoin is an awesome piece of technology, and Gavin and co are doing an excellent job at maintaining and advancing it.

2. This place is an absoltely aweful advertisement for Bitcoin.  Full of people ripping people to pieces for daring to point out that if an offer seems to good to be true then it almost certainly is too good to be true, for a start.  This place is a hotbed to people soliciting for schemes that are criminally illegal.

Not to mention that civil conversation is non-existent in pretty much every part of this forum.  If I ran this forum I would be thinking about shutting it down, for the good of Bitcoin.

ETA: To be fair, I have learnt a lot from reading this forum.  It probably does server a useful purpose at the moment - but it is certainly not a friendly place.

I'm pretty sure the September accouncement won't be faster confirmation of transactions.  Apart from the fact that I can't see how you'd do that without a hard fork,  any protocol changes would have to be discussed and gain concensus - protocol changes aren't going to just come out of thin air.

Date Paid: 21 July 2012
Order Number: 3734
Trade-In (Y/N): Y
Qty SC Jalapeno: - 
Qty SC Single: 1
Qty SC Mini Rig: - 

Actually, I think the big problem that exchanges will come up against is anti money laundering rules - specifically so called 'know your customer' rules.  Truly anonymous bank accounts aren't permitted - the bank (or in this case exchange) is supposed to know who you are.

There's some discussion (and speculation) in this thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=63877.260

It would be a lot less frustrating if I'd known about it beforehand - I've easily spent 4 hours reading threads here before I actually regisitered.

Oh, and just to add:

I got an immediate automated confirmation from my ASIC upgrade order, but still no confirmation for the FPGA Single order - only been a couple of days, but seems odd that one was acknowledged and the other not - does this tally with other people's experiences, or should I worry?  I paid with BTC, and both payments were in the same block, so it seems odd that one has been acknowledged and the other not - I'm just hoping that the FPGA order confirmation is a manual process, unlike the ASIC orders....

roy

Well, I hope what I just did is going to be allowed:

I just recently ordered an FPGA Single and an upgrade to an ASIC Single 'SC'.  I figure I should get the Single before the Single SC is ready to ship, and I did it this way in case the Single SC ends up getting delayed, as new products often do.  I hope this isn't going to cause me problems if my Single gets delayed and the SC launches on time - so my FPGA Single still isn't with me when my SC is ready to ship...

@vandordeak: where did you see the BFL policy that they won't let you do this?  (I don't care that much about shipping costs - I just don't want to have my ASIC Single order cancelled and lose my place in the queue if when it's ready to ship I still haven't received my FPGA Single.)

roy

Only registered so I could post my BFL orders to the WAIT LIST posts - but looks like I'm not going to be allowed.  Oh well...